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Nifty View - September Series 2013 |
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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Post: #451  Posted: Tue Sep 24, 2013 1:02 pm Post subject: |
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| I feel ANY strategy needs to be tempered by studying vix. since vix is high, it is likely that SLs on either side will be hit but vix is falling and hence genaral trend may now be up as long as vix falls. |
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rk_a2003
Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #452 Posted: Tue Sep 24, 2013 2:36 pm Post subject: |
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| pkholla wrote: | NS= 5908
NF Sept = 5930, 16.8 lakhs buyers, 6.4 lakh sellers
NF Oct = 5981 3.2 lakhs buyers, 2.4 lakh sellers
Has anyone seen such large premium and what is the reason for the same?
Vinay? RK?
Prakash Holla |
Sorry Prakash, for the late reply.Away from the terminal.Just came for reviewing my positions.
I think the recent up move unprecedented in pace and degree at least in the past 10 years must have caused these premiums in NF. Option premiums are derivatives of implied volatility which was evidently high.
Strategies which consists of selling puts and calls and hedging the position with NF Buy / Sell will be beneficial at thees times. |
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pkholla
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Joined: 04 Nov 2010
Posts: 2890
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| Post: #453 Posted: Tue Sep 24, 2013 2:57 pm Post subject: |
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RK: Thanks for the detailed reply. (Anytime better late than never.)
Thanks again, Prakash Holla
How nicely option writers have 'kachumbered' all near ITM- Nifty- Options into loss! |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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| Post: #454 Posted: Tue Sep 24, 2013 3:10 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | I am looking for a bullish engulfing candle today. |
it may not be piercing either. but inverted hammer? |
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saumya12
Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Dec 2011
Posts: 1509
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| Post: #455 Posted: Tue Sep 24, 2013 3:19 pm Post subject: |
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| NF, so far is NR 4 |
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vinay28
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| Post: #456 Posted: Tue Sep 24, 2013 4:07 pm Post subject: |
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| saumya12 wrote: | | NF, so far is NR 4 |
NS also |
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vinay28
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| Post: #457 Posted: Tue Sep 24, 2013 4:10 pm Post subject: |
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| at one time today, difference in sept and oct premium was about 82, which means operators are making it dificult for traders to carry forward long positions. Premium of about 22 with just 2 days to go means not much carried forward position as of now. Looks like we could see a big move in next 10 days. |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #458 Posted: Tue Sep 24, 2013 8:20 pm Post subject: |
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Here's a fact to brood about.
Every month of 2013 has closed above corresponding month of 2012. Also, low of every month of 2013 has been above corresponding monthly low in 2012, except August. But, no month of 2013 has closed above Jan '13 close.
2012 was a rising market over the year while 2013 is falling. |
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rk_a2003
Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #459 Posted: Tue Sep 24, 2013 9:01 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | Here's a fact to brood about.
Every month of 2013 has closed above corresponding month of 2012. Also, low of every month of 2013 has been above corresponding monthly low in 2012, except August. But, no month of 2013 has closed above Jan '13 close.
2012 was a rising market over the year while 2013 is falling. |
So, we may assume that this pattern continues and 2014 Jan may see a close above Jan 2013.  |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #460 Posted: Tue Sep 24, 2013 9:05 pm Post subject: |
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| rk_a2003 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | Here's a fact to brood about.
Every month of 2013 has closed above corresponding month of 2012. Also, low of every month of 2013 has been above corresponding monthly low in 2012, except August. But, no month of 2013 has closed above Jan '13 close.
2012 was a rising market over the year while 2013 is falling. |
So, we may assume that this pattern continues and 2014 Jan may see a close above Jan 2013. |
as I see it from above, sept may not close below 5703 but we could see 5200 in oct. with a close >5620. Oct is a big month and we will wild swings of as much as plus/minus 5% but probably definitely total 10%. The only counter argument to this is that weekly/monthly charts are still fine. we will probably know for sure by 30/9. |
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rrk2006hyd
Yellow Belt
Joined: 13 Oct 2010
Posts: 874
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| Post: #461 Posted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 11:58 am Post subject: |
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| rrk2006hyd wrote: | today down..
tomorrow--flat--
day after tomorrow?..high-low-high--low...
according to daily volatality nifty spot levels ...
6003-5947-5836-5780..
bought 5800PE,50@15 and 6000CE ,50@24.10..is it good? |
sold 6000ce yesterday at 35,
sold 5800pe today at 28 |
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vinay28
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Posts: 11748
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| Post: #462 Posted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 7:13 pm Post subject: |
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| 3 nifty bands |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #463 Posted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 7:43 pm Post subject: |
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Vinay, on your point of 5650 closing Nifty..
I have a feeling ..just feeling...that
Market makers are heavily selling (with eye on OCT closing) either 5800 calls and puts with inflow of approx 350-400 (just because considering this as solid support others would bet on a move away and possibly buy calls and puts)
This gives them reaonsable range of 5400-6200 to play with...ie taking market down to 5450 etc and 6250 on up and then closing around the median. (Instead of 5800 it can be 5900 etc?)
Point is for Oct month close, you would expect closing NEAR the Oct series open. Let's see...
Is it possible to check from Options Chains...what strike buiding on sell side?
In fact if they bought 5500 put around 6100 and would buy 6000-6100 call around 5550-5650, it would be strongly in their favour..
Just how a mind works..no data to support |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #464 Posted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 8:08 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | Vinay, on your point of 5650 closing Nifty..
I have a feeling ..just feeling...that
Market makers are heavily selling (with eye on OCT closing) either 5800 calls and puts with inflow of approx 350-400 (just because considering this as solid support others would bet on a move away and possibly buy calls and puts)
This gives them reaonsable range of 5400-6200 to play with...ie taking market down to 5450 etc and 6250 on up and then closing around the median. (Instead of 5800 it can be 5900 etc?)
Point is for Oct month close, you would expect closing NEAR the Oct series open. Let's see...
Is it possible to check from Options Chains...what strike buiding on sell side?
In fact if they bought 5500 put around 6100 and would buy 6000-6100 call around 5550-5650, it would be strongly in their favour..
Just how a mind works..no data to support |
You mean for oct? If so, it was only based on 2012 and 2013 comparison and had no other basis.
As for sept, I won't be surprised by levels of 6020 or 5720 tmrw. I feel we could see a 150 move tmrw on either side but option data suggests close between 5960-6000. If higher closing then, with very high premium prevailing, it can happen two ways. One - a steady and continuous climb without volatility or two- massive movement after 2.40-3 pm.
As for future months, just have a look at option prices. There is now way one can make money buying far away options. One can only take chance of a plus or minus 5-10% move in every month e.g. try plus/minus 7% options on either side of oct. And then at end of oct, for nov, etc. Obviously target of these options won't be 100. Oct being a big expiry, we may see both side moves. This is what I feel as of now unless vix crashes below 17. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #465 Posted: Thu Sep 26, 2013 9:13 am Post subject: |
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| Today's INR movement will decide nifty move. |
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