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Nifty View - September Series |
rk_a2003
Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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Post: #106  Posted: Fri Sep 05, 2014 3:49 pm Post subject: |
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| It's evident from these 2 days index action that there is some selling out of profit booking and this selling is being absorbed by FII's.Now I strongly feel that a good upward move is on cards in the coming days. |
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riteshucha
Green Belt
Joined: 19 May 2012
Posts: 1292
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| Post: #107 Posted: Fri Sep 05, 2014 4:33 pm Post subject: |
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vinay,
pls give your inputs..
1. today's dark cloud cover break point was 8132.40.. once broke never came back to touch it
2. happened from today's high point, as u said not from overall new high point..
3. day before yest evening star, yest's hanging man and today again a doji cum hanging man... (not too sure if my understanding of candle is correct)...
arent these enough indicators for reversal?
also how effective are dark cloud cover candles on 1 hr TF and the suceess ratio for future sessions?
other point to be noted that as per JT, 8114 NF was a strong resistance but today again closed above it... hence very likely that it will move towards 8174 - 8223 - 8272 as mentioned by him...
market (me included) seems to be very very confused...  |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #108 Posted: Fri Sep 05, 2014 5:34 pm Post subject: |
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| rk_a2003 wrote: | | It's evident from these 2 days index action that there is some selling out of profit booking and this selling is being absorbed by FII's.Now I strongly feel that a good upward move is on cards in the coming days. |
Sir I strongly second ur views...... I have decent bearish bets for next 3 months... But market would shake me out
I am with you basis " price action" and that big scrips are so consolidation. My intra day price reading ( yes intra day moves) that they do NOT signify a bearish move but a STRONG repulsive move from 8050.......
See my posts today .......
Markets reversed from. 8050 EXACT.
I try to read intra day price moves and If they are "reversal patterns "I would believe I am right in predicting them ( as part of a larger pattern) and this causes jitters.......
People who have successfully and yes successfully called tops and bottoms FOR YEars may go wrong ???.... Strange but the gann real targets are 8278-8316
Also 61.8 percent of 5116 .....
Also " simple" pivot system ( on which JT basis his levels solely) suggests a breakout above 8053 CUM 8091
So as often and as often unlike most others , u are staying with the trend which is great. |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #109 Posted: Fri Sep 05, 2014 5:52 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | | rk_a2003 wrote: | | It's evident from these 2 days index action that there is some selling out of profit booking and this selling is being absorbed by FII's.Now I strongly feel that a good upward move is on cards in the coming days. |
Sir I strongly second ur views...... I have decent bearish bets for next 3 months... But market would shake me out
I am with you basis " price action" and that big scrips are so consolidation. My intra day price reading ( yes intra day moves) that they do NOT signify a bearish move but a STRONG repulsive move from 8050.......
See my posts today .......
Markets reversed from. 8050 EXACT.
I try to read intra day price moves and If they are "reversal patterns "I would believe I am right in predicting them ( as part of a larger pattern) and this causes jitters.......
People who have successfully and yes successfully called tops and bottoms FOR YEars may go wrong ???.... Strange but the gann real targets are 8278-8316
Also 61.8 percent of 5116 .....
Also " simple" pivot system ( on which JT basis his levels solely) suggests a breakout above 8053 CUM 8091
So as often and as often unlike most others , u are staying with the trend which is great. |
OR is it that most system would fail when it is the " real top" and then after failing everybody ( the move down shall start)
Some have mentioned basis one monthly price formation on MAs that markets can rise to 8700-8900..... With a caveat that FALL shall be equally sharp and in lesser timeframe .
That was my only concern when I therefore shifted my bets till after Diwali and since timing for downtrend was dec with start happening in sep 14 itself
All imaginations and permutations.. But me sticking to my prognosis of 7800/ 7500 still
very interesting the markets..... |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #110 Posted: Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:27 pm Post subject: |
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ritesh, I can't answer your queries as I look at the market differently. However, I am giving below my views in response to them and also to posts by rk and amit. They are neither necessarily sequential or even related to each other. Don't ask why these level or period though it is NOT astrological. It's just difficult to explain. And I honestly feel they are not biased just because I am short.
1. Nifty will most probably go to at least 8250 in Sept but not from here. I will be worried if it sustains above 8124 for some time and closes above 8115 on Monday but may actually consider covering my puts if it crosses above 8160 and closes above 8165 by Wednesday.
2. Nifty has made lower lows and also closed at lower levels for 2 days though it made a higher high today. I feel it's a trap for weak bulls.
3. The -ve div on longer period still persists and there is a new one today as well.
4. 8102 posted a few days is still important. Though it went above that till 11 am, it didn't close above it after 10 am. This is in spite of the fact that a +ww can give 8110 early on Monday or as much as 8150 near eod if it sustains above 8050. In that context, I still feel today's close below 8089 was good for short term bears.
5. A host of -WWs are awaiting their turn for days. Two of them, which can give 7944 and 7856 as of now, have their SL now well above 8170.
6. I am, therefore, betting on breach of 8034/7994 soon, preferably on Monday. As I posted today, bears will look for a close below 8022.
7. Incidentally, I mentioned about US bond yield and DI yesterday. US bond yield spiked a couple of days ago but no cause of worry yet. DI may be reaching a short term top but INR is going up and may encourage some profit taking in equity, particularly ETFs. FIIs bought over 2B$ in equity in August but more in debt. I wonder why. May be I am reading too much in all this?
Last edited by vinay28 on Sat Sep 06, 2014 9:35 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #111 Posted: Sat Sep 06, 2014 9:05 pm Post subject: |
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| ritesh, you asked a query and amit and rk made their posts and yet no response from anyone for last 24 hours? |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #112 Posted: Sat Sep 06, 2014 9:11 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | ritesh, you asked a query and amit and rk made their posts and yet no response from anyone for last 24 hours? |
Vinay
- I undertrained that 3 days lower low lower high formation is required to mark the top as a pivot point : so that is not the case
- 8089-8094 closing below May be temporarily. Only closing below 8050 shall give solace to bears.
- u have been referring to august instead of September in your posts
- what about RSI levels you were looking into ; and projected 4-5 days in future basis 50 pointer up and down moves or sideways moves over the next week
- while I expect bullish behaviour in USD INR. It's not actually moving up from these levels
- EW pattern would be dangerous if uptrend continues till first week of October or much above these levels |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #113 Posted: Sat Sep 06, 2014 9:37 pm Post subject: |
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Nifty for Monday (08/09/14)
Supports are at about 8050, 8034, 8013, 7994 and 7928 while resistances are at about 8102/07, 8124, 8160/74 and 8250. Two unfilled gaps on lower side are at about 8027 and 7954. Five +WWs can give about 8108/8147/ 8153/8172 (once above 8035) and 8210 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four -WWs can give about 8000, 7992 (once below 8095), 7944, and 7919 (once below 8090) (-WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A bullish flag can give higher level unless killed below 7995. An IHnS can give about 8170-8275 in case nifty sustains above about 7910 while a HnS can give about 7980 in case a BD below 8050.
Nifty reacted a bit again and closed below 8100 but continues to be bullish. However, daily candle is a doji and the -ve div on daily and weekly over longer period still persists. Also, rsi seems to refuse to cross 80. If nifty closes below 8022, it may cause further fall. However, liquidity continues to be strong and one needs to be careful in trading. |
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riteshucha
Green Belt
Joined: 19 May 2012
Posts: 1292
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| Post: #114 Posted: Sat Sep 06, 2014 11:25 pm Post subject: |
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[
Either everyone's enjoying the weekend thoroughly or are as clueless as I am abt the next move...
Am I asking the right questions is what I wonder??
quote="vinay28"]ritesh, you asked a query and amit and rk made their posts and yet no response from anyone for last 24 hours?[/quote] |
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a1b1trader
Yellow Belt
Joined: 13 Jul 2014
Posts: 691
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| Post: #115 Posted: Sun Sep 07, 2014 12:04 am Post subject: |
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| rk_a2003 wrote: | | It's evident from these 2 days index action that there is some selling out of profit booking and this selling is being absorbed by FII's.Now I strongly feel that a good upward move is on cards in the coming days. |
You also confirm my point of view.
If nothing unforeseen happens, then we can see quite a good higher levels in this week itself, (IMO by Tuesday itself).
Thanks for your views. |
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a1b1trader
Yellow Belt
Joined: 13 Jul 2014
Posts: 691
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| Post: #116 Posted: Sun Sep 07, 2014 1:31 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | ritesh, you asked a query and amit and rk made their posts and yet no response from anyone for last 24 hours? |
Yeah, sometimes it is better not to post your comments on ones post.  |
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riteshucha
Green Belt
Joined: 19 May 2012
Posts: 1292
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| Post: #117 Posted: Mon Sep 08, 2014 9:46 am Post subject: |
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| shorts safe till 8175 is not taken out... |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #118 Posted: Mon Sep 08, 2014 9:50 am Post subject: |
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| riteshucha wrote: | | shorts safe till 8175 is not taken out... |
or if it sustains above 8160 for some time or even closing above 8141. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #119 Posted: Mon Sep 08, 2014 12:30 pm Post subject: |
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| will we see a NR4/7 evening star today? |
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a1b1trader
Yellow Belt
Joined: 13 Jul 2014
Posts: 691
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| Post: #120 Posted: Mon Sep 08, 2014 12:46 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | will we see a NR4/7 evening star today? |
No way
Market is going to blast anytime |
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