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Nifty View - September Series |
apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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Post: #226  Posted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:26 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | bought 8000 and 8100ce in morning |
Hmm, confusing spot right now. 8000ce OI nearly doubled yesterday. Normally when this has been happening 5-6 days before expiry it acts as the resistance.
This is what I am looking at - if at 11.30 nifty spot is below 7968, then we should test 7897-7907 and if it breaks that then we shall see 7820 before expiry. |
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PS Trader
White Belt
Joined: 22 Sep 2013
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| Post: #227 Posted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:29 am Post subject: |
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For me, if nifty able to close near 8110 , which is 180 point upmove  (which is possible less likely ), that is serious note for bullish and I will expect 8385 to be touched tomorrow on intraday basis. 
Being 7820 - 7840 is bottom target for most brokerages and MFs, i don't think market will go upto there and market should reverse from before that most certainly. |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #228 Posted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:30 am Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | bought 8000 and 8100ce in morning |
Hmm, confusing spot right now. 8000ce OI nearly doubled yesterday. Normally when this has been happening 5-6 days before expiry it acts as the resistance.
This is what I am looking at - if at 11.30 nifty spot is below 7968, then we should test 7897-7907 and if it breaks that then we shall see 7820 before expiry. |
what is this 11.30 am and 7968NS formula? |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #229 Posted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:36 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | apka wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | bought 8000 and 8100ce in morning |
Hmm, confusing spot right now. 8000ce OI nearly doubled yesterday. Normally when this has been happening 5-6 days before expiry it acts as the resistance.
This is what I am looking at - if at 11.30 nifty spot is below 7968, then we should test 7897-7907 and if it breaks that then we shall see 7820 before expiry. |
what is this 11.30 am and 7968NS formula? |
30min timeframe... it's the high of the 30min candle - pinbar type - formed at 10am... bugger closed at 7968.60 |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #230 Posted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:39 am Post subject: |
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don't fight liquidity (me)!  |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #231 Posted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:47 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | don't fight liquidity (me)! |
hah! 2 can play that game  |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #232 Posted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 12:03 pm Post subject: |
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| VIX touched 11.26 .. what's next single digits?! |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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| Post: #233 Posted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 12:12 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | VIX touched 11.26 .. what's next single digits?! |
vix has become a unimportant commodity. such a low value gives belief to some experts, who go by it, that we will see much lower levels. |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #234 Posted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 12:22 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | apka wrote: | | VIX touched 11.26 .. what's next single digits?! |
vix has become a unimportant commodity. such a low value gives belief to some experts, who go by it, that we will see much lower levels. |
that's weird. at such high index levels, volatility is what will make option writers earn. I wonder when it will again upscale. it has been building pos div since long. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #235 Posted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 12:48 pm Post subject: |
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| apka, IVs are so low that only diehards will write options IMHO unless they write near MT ones. pl watch OI in 8000ce intraday. last I saw it was 50.50 lacs |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #236 Posted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 1:08 pm Post subject: |
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for those who are interested, here are different levels/SLs by diff methods, most of which are not mine.
intraday short with SL 8018NF
intraday/short term long with SL 5/15tf close below 7967/55NF.
positional short with SL 60tf close above 8025NF.
For those who are long
week (Friday) must close at least above 8030NS and preferably above 8111NS.
by another method, daily close above 8133NS is needed. |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #237 Posted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 1:11 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | apka, IVs are so low that only diehards will write options IMHO unless they write near MT ones. pl watch OI in 8000ce intraday. last I saw it was 50.50 lacs |
53+ |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #238 Posted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 1:26 pm Post subject: |
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| BO of a ST can give 8015NS. |
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riteshucha
Green Belt
Joined: 19 May 2012
Posts: 1292
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| Post: #239 Posted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 1:42 pm Post subject: |
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3rd time broken below 7969...
if sustain below this for 15mins then we can see good short covreing of 8000 pe or a fall till 7886/7890... |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #240 Posted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 2:37 pm Post subject: |
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| come on, give a sharp upmove |
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