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Nifty View - September Series |
vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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Post: #1  Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2014 6:06 pm Post subject: Nifty View - September Series |
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Nifty for Monday (01/09/14)
Supports are at about 7940, 7925, 7891, 7860 and 7848 while resistances are at about 7962, 7983, 7997, 8026 and 8081. Three +WWs can give about 7973, 7982 and 8029 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 7920 (once below 7968), 7856 (once below 7944) and 7828 (once below 7974) (-WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A bullish flag can give much higher level unless killed below 7795. An IHnS can give about 8170-8275 in case nifty sustains above about 7881. BO of two broadening top patterns can give 7876 and 8067.
Nifty closed at an all time high above 7950. The -ve div on daily and weekly over longer period still persists and RSI is yet to go above 67.21, though it has crossed above the sloping TL. Daily candle is like a spinning top while weekly candle is a hanging man. However, monthly chart is still good. But what is to be noted is that daily candle shows lower high in spite of higher volume while weekly and monthly candles show higher high with lower volume.
If NS doesn't go above 7969, we may see a reversal but a close above 7969 can continue the uptrend. A breach of 7910 can bring bears back. Thursday was a NR7 (actually NR107) day while last week was a NR7 (actually NR18) week and we may see big movements on Monday and the whole week. Liquidity is strong and one needs to be careful in trading.
Monday is important sentimentally as it is not only the first day of the week and expiry but also the first calendar day of the month. |
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apka
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| Post: #2 Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2014 6:08 pm Post subject: |
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| As per SGX we should be opening above 8000 |
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vinay28
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| Post: #3 Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2014 6:12 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | As per SGX we should be opening above 8000 |
looks like that as of now |
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amitagg
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Joined: 01 Oct 2013
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| Post: #4 Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2014 6:41 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | apka wrote: | | As per SGX we should be opening above 8000 |
looks like that as of now |
Pls help.... Would the market if gaps up to 8033 NS (+80 ) ...... After so much consolidation........
1) Would a continuation intra day is possible or would a retrace to fill or try to fill the gap
2) RR sirs ( hope I am not forgetting whose levels they were) levels of 8125 should be taken as spot levels- yes ( or future levels -no):
3) would volatility expansion continue after a gap or it generally fails ( talking day or two or weekly timeframe) - or it is something which cannot be predicted
4) should fresh longs be taken with weekly or monthly view OR longs booked (50 percent) etc or fully ( just checking perceptions)
5) I was expecting this one gap up ( basis RKs observations of market moves more than a year back) and therefore in nick of time evened 1:1 the long strangle position of 7800 put ( far money) / 8000 call (near money). Otherwise like some others I expected market topping at7970 itself ( or earlier at 7800 which is not happening). Now only wondering whether the breakout should be more " directional upward thrust" or Peter out quickly
6) JT levels would need revision after 70 pointer move since he posted the levels,,, till expiry, may be someone can request him to update those ( if at all required)
7) this should be treated as " continuation" or " exhaustion gap"
Any strategies one can employ to guess this...... Eg SSPS once wrote that around mid day after such gap up.... Market tend to move to 34 ema- 15 tf/ 30 tf? .... And if it shows rise from there somehwhat it would continue to rise
Short insight sought. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #5 Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2014 6:52 pm Post subject: |
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I don't do so much analysis as you do amit. I feel what is possible after a gap up open on monday, if that happens, is that it may go up to appx. 8050/80/8110NF even if after a brief reaction upon open. That also tallies with upper level of broadening top posted for last 3 days. If it is going to react as I feel it may upto 7800/7750 then it will fall after an incomplete (partial) rise i.e. below 8080Nf if tmrw. Note that the top of broadening pattern rises every day as days pass.
so keep a track of the pattern posted.
Incidentally, about 8044/8133NS are crucial levels
Last edited by vinay28 on Fri Aug 29, 2014 7:11 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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vinay28
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| Post: #6 Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2014 6:56 pm Post subject: |
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| nse website shows thursday's low of sept NF as 7975.20 but my odin showed 7978.60. what is correct? also, is closing level 7986.40NF? |
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apka
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| Post: #7 Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2014 7:34 pm Post subject: |
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| close value is correct. can't confirm about the low actual, nse shows what you mentioned. maybe it was one of those flash trades in the sudden fall that came after 3pm and it didn't register in charts. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #8 Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2014 8:15 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | close value is correct. can't confirm about the low actual, nse shows what you mentioned. maybe it was one of those flash trades in the sudden fall that came after 3pm and it didn't register in charts. |
not just charts. apka, not even terminal which always shows correct value. |
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riteshucha
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Joined: 19 May 2012
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| Post: #9 Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2014 11:10 am Post subject: |
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low was 7975.20 as per ODIN too..
| vinay28 wrote: | | nse website shows thursday's low of sept NF as 7975.20 but my odin showed 7978.60. what is correct? also, is closing level 7986.40NF? |
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vinay28
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| Post: #10 Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2014 11:21 am Post subject: |
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| riteshucha wrote: | low was 7975.20 as per ODIN too..
| vinay28 wrote: | | nse website shows thursday's low of sept NF as 7975.20 but my odin showed 7978.60. what is correct? also, is closing level 7986.40NF? |
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oh really? how did I miss that? thanks ritesh |
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riteshucha
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| Post: #11 Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2014 11:39 am Post subject: |
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cause i immediatly update my sheets once i get the close figure at 3.40 and it was showing 7975.20 as the low... confirmed, lock kiya jai!! 
| vinay28 wrote: | | riteshucha wrote: | low was 7975.20 as per ODIN too..
| vinay28 wrote: | | nse website shows thursday's low of sept NF as 7975.20 but my odin showed 7978.60. what is correct? also, is closing level 7986.40NF? |
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oh really? how did I miss that? thanks ritesh |
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vinay28
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| Post: #12 Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2014 11:51 am Post subject: |
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actually, I do better than that. I have an excel file in which I keep filling and editing OHLC intraday also but I must have missed the low. |
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bappa1971
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Joined: 19 Mar 2012
Posts: 171
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| Post: #13 Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2014 1:26 pm Post subject: hello |
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September seems correction vinay.....i feel a strong one, but with stop loss of course.....  |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #14 Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2014 5:14 pm Post subject: Re: hello |
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| bappa1971 wrote: | | September seems correction vinay.....i feel a strong one, but with stop loss of course..... |
correction, may be but strong one, I don't know. What do you mean by strong one anyway bappa? |
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doji
White Belt
Joined: 22 Nov 2006
Posts: 31
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| Post: #15 Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2014 6:46 pm Post subject: |
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| 8000 is certain ... a mere formality waiting to happen |
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