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Nifty View - September'15 Series
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Author Nifty View - September'15 Series
pkholla
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Joined: 04 Nov 2010
Posts: 2890

Post: #76   PostPosted: Fri Sep 18, 2015 2:42 pm    Post subject: Re: Disaster mis-management! Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:

Prakash, I bought small qty of 9100ce for Dec today as a gamble.

Vinay, good choice!

We just need a few +ves like:
1 Seeing the way Mulah has already left the alliance and further ego issues likely, may not be a NDA disaster in Bihar
2 Bad monsoon and crop already discounted
3 Modi needs to silence Maa-Beta-Beti- (Frisky) Vadodra thru judicious blackmail (threaten to take away her 27 trusts* giving her roti, kapda aur makaan?)
4 Sort out issues concerning FIIs and they may transfer in bulk , funds from China!
5 Some Divali lollipop for NRIs? Tax free $ bonds (can take Re loan to give Indian poor relation)?

* Trusts est by late Home Minister M Rao S with public money. In return favor, M Rao S never had to paid a R tax in his life!
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748

Post: #77   PostPosted: Fri Sep 18, 2015 7:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Monday (21/09/15) and beyond

Supports are at about 7952, 7934, 7918, 7895 and 7887 while resistances are at about 8000, 8042, 8060, 8090, 8100, 8108, 8120 and 8156. Unfilled gaps on upper/lower sides are at about 8300/7899 resp. Three +WWs can give about 8096, 8118 and 8137 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Five -WWs can give about 7876 (if below 7945), 7744/27 (if below 7912) and 7863/52 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A HnS can give about 7310 if nifty sustains below 7920. A rising wedge can give about 7785 upon BD below 7895.

Nifty rose sharply in spite of a big gap up open but reacted equally sharply to make a lower low to close slightly +ve but below 8000. Daily candle is an inverted hammer and we may see further fall. However, volume was huge and +ve and hence the fall may not be severe. Also, weekly candle is good. Nifty must cross 8092 and also close above 8002 for further upmove. A close below 7872 may mean more fall. Since bearish sentiment persists, only some +ve major news/event can save nifty. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. High VIX can cause wild swings. Trade carefully this being expiry week.
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vinay28
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Post: #78   PostPosted: Sat Sep 19, 2015 4:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Friday was the first day in a long time when FIIs bought a sizeable amount in cash. It could have been in mid/small caps but if big and consistent buying is going to commence, and we will never know how their mind/sentiment works, be cautious in shorting this market on short term/positional basis as TA can fail in front of strong liquidity flows.
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chandrujimrc
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Joined: 21 Apr 2009
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Post: #79   PostPosted: Sat Sep 19, 2015 6:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Further to my previous posts nifty has given non stop rally of 516 points.
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amitagg
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Joined: 01 Oct 2013
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Post: #80   PostPosted: Sun Sep 20, 2015 4:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

chandrujimrc wrote:
Dear friends,

Nifty has responded the trend line support and double bottom with RSI divrg.Whenever RSI comes below 30 to 25 region mkt will bounce back very sharply and it will rally minimum 300 to 500 points .In the current scenario after the correction of 1100 points I am expecting Nifty will retest the middle high(8090) of double bottom before FED announcement.It is my view only not any tips or recommendation.So trade with strict S/L.


On the dot
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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Post: #81   PostPosted: Mon Sep 21, 2015 8:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Tuesday (22/09/15) and beyond

Supports are at about 7955, 7936, 7925, 7875 and 7808 while resistances are at about 8010, 8040, 8053, 8095, 8107, 8230 and 8265. Unfilled gaps on upper/lower sides are at about 8300/7899 resp. Five +WWs can give about 8013, 8025, 8117, 8140 and 8169 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four -WWs can give about 7888 (if below 8056), 7877 (if below 7982) and 7791/74 (if below 7920) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A HnS can give about 7310 if nifty sustains below 7920 while a IHnS can give 8285 if nifty sustains above 8050. A rising wedge can give about 7810 upon BD below 7910.

Nifty rose sharply after a big gap down open and closed strongly +ve but below 8000. Nifty must close above 8002 and also cross 8092 for further upmove. A close below 7872 may mean more fall. Since bearish sentiment persists, only some +ve major news/event can save nifty. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. High VIX can cause wild swings. Trade carefully this being expiry week.
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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Post: #82   PostPosted: Tue Sep 22, 2015 4:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If Nifty falls further, as it seems certain, likely supports are given in the chart. As per this, it may be a good idea to go long positionally at/below 7650/40 with SL as 60 tf close below 7615 or worst case 7550.
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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Post: #83   PostPosted: Tue Sep 22, 2015 9:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Wednesday (23/09/15) and beyond

Supports are at about 7772, 7723, 7663, 7636, 7546 and 7518 while resistances are at about 7845, 7877, 7936, 7963 and 8090. Three +WWs can give about 7835/7974 (if above 7794) and 7854 (if above 7814) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four -WWs can give about 7771 (if below 7908), 7686 (if below 7891), 7666 (if below 7891) and 7510 (if below 7966) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A HnS can give about 7310 if nifty sustains below 7920.

Nifty collapsed after a gap up open and closed just above 7800 and looks very bearish. Daily candle is huge, bearish engulfing. Bullish div sustains but bulls have no hope without liquidity coming in. If nifty can survive 7760-20 zone, it may recover. However, only a close above 7982 can start a fresh upmove. A close below 7717 can be very bad. Since bearish sentiment persists, only some +ve major news/event can save nifty. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. High VIX can cause wild swings. Trade carefully this being a truncated expiry week.
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vinay28
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Post: #84   PostPosted: Wed Sep 23, 2015 1:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:
......... If nifty can survive 7760-20 zone, it may recover. ..........


looks like it took support near lower end of zone. Bounced >100 points.
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riteshucha
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Joined: 19 May 2012
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Post: #85   PostPosted: Wed Sep 23, 2015 4:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

todays candle looks more like a "thrusting bearish candle"... isnt it vinay??...

feel, if tomm first 7905 NS(yesterday's midpoint) then 7930 NS (todays 7900 ce high) is not taken out, then this fall will continue...
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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Post: #86   PostPosted: Wed Sep 23, 2015 7:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

riteshucha wrote:
todays candle looks more like a "thrusting bearish candle"... isnt it vinay??...

feel, if tomm first 7905 NS(yesterday's midpoint) then 7930 NS (todays 7900 ce high) is not taken out, then this fall will continue...


ritesh, thrusting yes but bearish only if downtrend continues tmrw with a lower low. Note that though it is not bullish piercing, it still gives bullish reversal 57% of the time. However, whatever high it makes after such a bullish reversal, it can fall about 5.92% from there.
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riteshucha
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Joined: 19 May 2012
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Post: #87   PostPosted: Wed Sep 23, 2015 7:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

[
Thanks will keep that in mind

quote="vinay28"]
riteshucha wrote:
todays candle looks more like a "thrusting bearish candle"... isnt it vinay??...

feel, if tomm first 7905 NS(yesterday's midpoint) then 7930 NS (todays 7900 ce high) is not taken out, then this fall will continue...


ritesh, thrusting yes but bearish only if downtrend continues tmrw with a lower low. Note that though it is not bullish piercing, it still gives bullish reversal 57% of the time. However, whatever high it makes after such a bullish reversal, it can fall about 5.92% from there.[/quote]
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vinay28
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Post: #88   PostPosted: Wed Sep 23, 2015 8:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Thursday (24/09/15) and beyond

Supports are at about 7814/08, 7749, 7686, 7655, 7637, 7618 and 7549 while resistances are at about 7914/24, 7936, 7980/88 and 8055. Two +WWs can give about 8015 and 8068 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 7782/7669 (if below 7876) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A HnS can give about 7320 if nifty sustains below 7930.

Nifty rose sharply after a huge gap down open and closed just below 7850 but is not out of the woods. There is a +ve div and we may see some more rise. Bullish div sustains but bulls have no hope without liquidity coming in. Only a close above 7982 can start a fresh upmove. A close below 7717 can be very bad. Since bearish sentiment persists, only some +ve major news/event can save nifty. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. High VIX can cause wild swings. Trade carefully being an expiry day.
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riteshucha
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Post: #89   PostPosted: Thu Sep 24, 2015 2:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

be careful any trade below NF 7842, would be very very dangerous.... if not broken, good chance on upside for 7924 and 7947....
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amitagg
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Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559

Post: #90   PostPosted: Thu Sep 24, 2015 2:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

riteshucha wrote:
be careful any trade below NF 7842, would be very very dangerous.... if not broken, good chance on upside for 7924 and 7947....


be careful, it can go below NF 7842 to 7780 and come back sharply....... Laughing
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