iCharts Discussions

psalm · Black Belt Joined: 12 Nov 2011 Posts: 5368

Hi,

Nifty is showing good strength today. This move was not completely unexpected. The challenge is now ahead for the market. The first hurdle will be to cross the 4745-4785 level. I'll be really surprised if Nifty will be able to cross this region so easily. I expect a lot of supply in that region. So, I believe that its an area for positional SHORTs or Positional PUTs. One can buy Nifty PUTs or SELL Nifty in that area. For the traders holding LONG positions, this will be the area to exit, I feel. For all the positional SHORTs, they can hold it with a StopLoss just above 4800. All the levels mentioned here are NIFTY SPOT levels. These SHORT positions can be hold until 4450-4400 levels are reached.

Today and Tomorrow morning will offer exit opportunities for the Bulls, I believe. I have a feeling that tomorrow morning, we might break Today's High. However, that will end this short term pullback, I feel. So, if someone is skeptical about holding a position for tomorrow, there will be another opportunity tomorrow. This is what I believe. In fact, this is my personal view. Please don't get panic reading this. This opinion might prove wrong tomorrow evening. So, be careful. I'm just expressing my opinion about the market and its future course.

Happy Trades!!!! thumbup1

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

I think tmrw and day after it will be down

psalm · Black Belt Joined: 12 Nov 2011 Posts: 5368

ajayhkaul · Yellow Belt Joined: 18 Jun 2009 Posts: 866

psalm · Black Belt Joined: 12 Nov 2011 Posts: 5368

ajayhkaul · Yellow Belt Joined: 18 Jun 2009 Posts: 866

psalm .... you would call tails on the 11th because YOU( and the charts) remember what happened in the last 10 calls !

The COIN( or the market) does not remember the last toss! This is important because the possibility of the next toss being head or tail is still 50/50.

psalm · Black Belt Joined: 12 Nov 2011 Posts: 5368

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."
- Mark Twain

Unfortunately, I believe in Statistics.... Wink

ajayhkaul · Yellow Belt Joined: 18 Jun 2009 Posts: 866

Yes psalm ....It all boils down to beliefs finally.

BTW .... coin toss is statistics( see chapter on probabilities).

psalm · Black Belt Joined: 12 Nov 2011 Posts: 5368

psalm · Black Belt Joined: 12 Nov 2011 Posts: 5368

rk_a2003 · Black Belt Joined: 21 Jan 2010 Posts: 2734

psalm · Black Belt Joined: 12 Nov 2011 Posts: 5368

psalm · Black Belt Joined: 12 Nov 2011 Posts: 5368

ajayhkaul · Yellow Belt Joined: 18 Jun 2009 Posts: 866

Really ??

everyone seems to be confused on that link !

Anyways .... my purpose is only to highlight the fact that the next tick on your chart is same as a coin toss or a coin flip .

Making a prediction tends to bias us and hold our positions (esp when wrong ) longer ie it has a psychological impact .

I wrote this since you mentioned 'gut feel' .

The big picture is that now it is the earnings season and traders are being set up for that .

Insiders and others are taking positions in anticipation , so expect bullishness till some bad results are announced or till the 10th of JAN or so.

What say ?

psalm · Black Belt Joined: 12 Nov 2011 Posts: 5368

""Anyways .... my purpose is only to highlight the fact that the next tick on your chart is same as a coin toss or a coin flip. I wrote this since you mentioned 'gut feel'. ""

Do you believe in the following?

Technical Analysis is the forecasting of future financial price movements based on an examination of past price movements. Like weather forecasting, technical analysis does not result in absolute predictions about the future. Instead, technical analysis can help investors anticipate what is "likely" to happen to prices over time (I have used the term "gut feeling" only in that sense. My gut feeling comes from my analysis). Technical analysts believe that the current price fully reflects all information. Because all information is already reflected in the price, it represents the fair value, and should form the basis for analysis.Technical analysis utilizes the information captured by the price to interpret what the market is saying with the purpose of forming a view on the future. One way of viewing it is that markets may witness extended periods of random fluctuation, interspersed with shorter periods of nonrandom behavior. The goal of the chartist is to identify those periods, ie identifying the major trends.

Ajay, you have mentioned in one of your previous post that you yourself are a technical analyst. If you believe in technical analysis, how can you compare "tossing a coin" to "predicting tomorrow's market move"? By doing so, you are questioning the very basics of the technical analysis.

Making a prediction tends to bias us and hold our positions (esp when wrong ) longer ie it has a psychological impact .

I agree with this view to a certain extend. However, you must remember that the above comment is also a prediction. How do you come to a conclusion that this is correct?? Can you consider this as a fact??......Are you sure about this?...

"" The big picture is that now it is the earnings season and traders are being set up for that . Insiders and others are taking positions in anticipation , so expect bullishness till some bad results are announced or till the 10th of JAN or so.""

Unfortunately, I couldn't find this information from my charts. Thats why I was maintaining my overall bearish view about our markets. By the way, from where did you get this BIG PICTURE? Are you sure about that??...or is it your "gut feeling"????

hahaha....I have written all these things just to indicate that if somebody wants just an argument, it is very easy. Even without facts, one can argue. Laughing

Note: I appreciate your comments. I really mean it. surrender