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ajayhkaul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866
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Post: #121  Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2012 9:35 pm Post subject: |
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Hey psalm .... I am a hard core Technical Analyst ...true.
What I am trying to convey is that no matter what the chart tells me I Stay Detached From the Outcome ... I want to react to the moment ie live in the 'now'. Very difficult and I do slip up !!!
I also combine the fundamentals and upcoming events because the problem with TA is that it switches on NEWS( traders react to news ).
Earnings season is a fact of life , results have to be declared in Jan/april/july etc by corporate law . So how we trade must account for the upcoming event.
This is in the public domain, but traders may overlook this as an event that will lead to bullishness for a short time and as they build positions, the season is over !
Making predictions is a psychological aspect of all humans ..it gives us a sense of being in control which is so important to maintain sanity 
Hey no arguments , just pushing the envelope for all technical analysts including me so we can all be better traders:lol: |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #122 Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2012 9:58 pm Post subject: |
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TA, FA, SA........ nobody is talking about "A"?  |
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rk_a2003
Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #123 Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2012 10:00 pm Post subject: |
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"Insiders and others are taking positions in anticipation , so expect bullishness till some bad results are announced or till the 10th of JAN or so.
What say ?"
What can be said!  .... You are right....I too feel the same.
Tax related selling in western markets were over – people who want to book losses for accounting purpose sell the stocks physically before December end and buy back in first 10-15 days of January. This is why the markets in US fall in December and it is quite likely that it will perform better at least for 2 weeks in Jan.
Indian Market may follow US market till results are out from 2nd week or 3rd week onwards..........From this time We may witness a beginning of a fresh fall...This is a fundamental view….But some times Technical’s can over ride fundamentals for a good amount of time period…. |
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ajayhkaul
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Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866
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| Post: #124 Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2012 10:10 pm Post subject: |
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Tax related selling in western markets were over – people who want to book losses for accounting purpose sell the stocks physically before December end and buy back in first 10-15 days of January. This is why the markets in US fall in December and it is quite likely that it will perform better at least for 2 weeks in Jan.
Exactly , RK BRAVO!
This is the kind of info( the big picture) that needs to be factored in when looking at charts.
And past is not equal to future .
Future or next tick in real time= past behaviour(TA) modified by latest news/info |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #125 Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2012 10:44 pm Post subject: |
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You ppl might be correct. But I still believe in what i have said...and i'm sticking to my point. Let's see how it unfolds....I dont have a view regarding fundamentals, as I'm not good at analyzing fundamental facts.....to be frank, I dont have an in-depth knowledge abt it.....As you have said, we should widen our thought process, I agree with that completely.
Thanks Ajay, RK and Vinay....for makin ur points clear.... 
Last edited by psalm on Wed Jan 04, 2012 8:24 am; edited 1 time in total |
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ajayhkaul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866
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| Post: #126 Posted: Wed Jan 04, 2012 1:22 am Post subject: |
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| Apologies for distracting the thread... we read your postings with interest as you are aware. |
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rk_a2003
Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #127 Posted: Wed Jan 04, 2012 8:29 am Post subject: |
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| psalm wrote: | You ppl might be correct. But I still believe in what i have said...and i'm sticking to my point. Let's see how it unfolds....I dont have a view regarding fundamentals, as I'm not good at analyzing fundamental facts.....to be frank, I dont have an in-depth knowledge abt it.....As you have said, we should widen our thought process, I agree with that completely.
Thanks Ajay, RK and Vinay....for makin ur points clear.... |
Psalm
What I am talking about is atleast a months view. Your position and this view can go together .Atleast Market is not going up in one go there will be intermittent pull backs.
And I beleive you always TSL.I don't think you are going to lose.Infact I too may do what you have done after having a look at today's charts.....
Last edited by rk_a2003 on Wed Jan 04, 2012 5:26 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #128 Posted: Wed Jan 04, 2012 9:02 am Post subject: |
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so psalm, are you now mentally ready for 6800+?
RK - man, how did my name change when you quoted psalm? Don't play such tricks! |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #129 Posted: Wed Jan 04, 2012 9:32 am Post subject: Sorry |
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I'm sorry vinay....it was my mistake...i made the typo....i typed it as vijay...at first...then i have corrected it...My apologies.....  |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #130 Posted: Wed Jan 04, 2012 9:36 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | so psalm, are you now mentally ready for 6800+?
RK - man, how did my name change when you quoted psalm? Don't play such tricks! |
I have made my points clear, Vinay....check the followin thread....
http://www.icharts.in/forum/viewtopic.php?t=4022
 ...Not yet ready for 6800...But we'll outperform in the longer run...there is no doubt abt that..... |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #131 Posted: Wed Jan 04, 2012 9:40 am Post subject: |
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| j/k |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #132 Posted: Wed Jan 04, 2012 10:19 am Post subject: Re: Nifty Outlook |
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| psalm wrote: | Hi,
Nifty is showing good strength today. This move was not completely unexpected. The challenge is now ahead for the market. The first hurdle will be to cross the 4745-4785 level. I'll be really surprised if Nifty will be able to cross this region so easily. I expect a lot of supply in that region. So, I believe that its an area for positional SHORTs or Positional PUTs. One can buy Nifty PUTs or SELL Nifty in that area. For the traders holding LONG positions, this will be the area to exit, I feel. For all the positional SHORTs, they can hold it with a StopLoss just above 4800. All the levels mentioned here are NIFTY SPOT levels. These SHORT positions can be hold until 4450-4400 levels are reached.
Today and Tomorrow morning will offer exit opportunities for the Bulls, I believe. I have a feeling that tomorrow morning, we might break Today's High. However, that will end this short term pullback, I feel. So, if someone is skeptical about holding a position for tomorrow, there will be another opportunity tomorrow. This is what I believe. In fact, this is my personal view. Please don't get panic reading this. This opinion might prove wrong tomorrow evening. So, be careful. I'm just expressing my opinion about the market and its future course.
Happy Trades!!!!  |
I'm still maintaining this view. If someone wants trade intraday, Support for the day is in the range 4710-4700. The stoploss here should be just below 4680. But i still advocate to sell at higher levels..especially in the range 4765 to 4785 with Stoploss just above 4800 levels (all spot levels). However, I must confess here that I'm not a big fan of Intra-day trades because of the risks. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #133 Posted: Wed Jan 04, 2012 10:42 am Post subject: |
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| nifty is in a upward channel since yesterday. i intend to take a chance by shorting at ~4790 NS if it gets there soon |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #134 Posted: Wed Jan 04, 2012 10:51 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | nifty is in a upward channel since yesterday. i intend to take a chance by shorting at ~4790 NS if it gets there soon |
Vinay,
There is POSSIBILITY of nifty reaching 4792-4797 levels...If you are able to SHORT it around those levels, then keep a stoploss above 4810....just for a safety...Nobody is certain about the market, vinay....by the way, I'll consider changing my strategy, only if the market breaks 4820-4830 levels..... |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #135 Posted: Wed Jan 04, 2012 10:59 am Post subject: |
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| yes psalm. I expect market to be choppy within the channel range of 35 points today. But if it comes down to 4720, I will buy. Let's see what happens between 12 and 1.30 |
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