iCharts Discussions

[psalm]

WOW...What a move..... .....

I think you were right vinay....

The stoploss for all my short positions is 4802 now. I'll be exiting all the SHORTs if Nifty breaks that level. Let's see if nifty breaks that....But it looks like nifty will break it.....

[vinay28]

4802 is a good SL. I will see and short if it comes up again a bit.

[psalm]

OOOOPS....whats goin on.....don have any idea....seesaw battle...

[vinay28]

i would ideally like to short at 4800 for a target of 4740. all spot levels. as i said earlier, i expect tmrw and monday to be down

[psalm]

I have no idea about the direction of the market as of now, though my bias is towards lower levels. However, one cant rule out the possibility of 4880-4890 now. I'm not the only one confused at this point of time, i guess. Even the market is also, confused.....hahaha...Look at the DOJI of the last two days.....

[ajayhkaul]

[psalm]

Ajay,

Though the market hasn't been going up, it hasn't been going down for the last few days. This is what happens with the Bear Markets, I guess...lower volumes with GREEN/WHITE candles, unless it is a short-covering day. So, one can expect low volumes. However, suppose if the very short term trend changes to a SELL MODE, you will see selling with High volume. So, these pullbacks are all associated with low volumes. But I completely agree with your view that TA wont be effective with lower volumes. However, the past trends, the historical patterns and past behaviors can all be of great help in gauging the market, i believe.


By the way, another confusing thing is that a few of the stocks have broken out already while other few are just sitting under their resistances. So, i'm not getting any idea from those things. But looking at the chart, I feel that the chances of a very big move is high on Monday, a big Gap-Up or a big Gap-Down move. But again, no idea about the direction. By the way, i will be having my short positions as long as the markets are below 4800.

[ajayhkaul]

low volatility is followed by high volatility (and vice versa).

But a CATALYST is required (such as news etc which cannot be found from the chart , but you can see some indication of institutional buying on the chart and as tech analysts we take positions based on the view that the news will be known later- we are technically blind! ).

Stocks that have moved up or broken out are the ones where insiders have taken positions. These will be sold , in most cases , as soon the news becomes public and the 'ducks' start to buy.


The stocks below their resistances are where the majority consensus is still negative about the earning (or any other news, say interest rates , or a government policy) results or people are seeking info in order to jump in. These stocks will usually breakout on good news or crash on bad news.

Information does not flow to all participants at the same time- its impossible.

You saw MMTC , STCINDIA ,HINDCOPPER start upward movement due to inside info that most of the public heard two days later. By that time someone says , government will delay psu disinvestment blah blah.... and people try to get out frantically etc.

[psalm]

But a CATALYST is required (such as news etc which cannot be found from the chart , but you can see some indication of institutional buying on the chart and as tech analysts we take positions based on the view that the news will be known later- we are technically blind! ).

I agree with you Ajay. If any particular development in a stock is supported with volume, you can come to a conclusion that some fundamental things are changing. That is the reason why certain news arrives on the scene when the stocks will be at their supports or resistances. I agree with your opinion that the smart money will be withdrawn once the news is made available to the public. The saying "Buy on rumours (informed) and sell on news" comes from this.

Fortunately, the technical analysis can reveal these information to a certain extent. Even when the price is steady, you can check if the accumulation or distribution is happening. You can see the smart money entering and leaving the system. So, your phrase "technically blind" is very apt here. We are blind...but only technically....

[vinay28]

ajay/psalm - don't overlook the fact that "long only" funds started cherry-picking at 4600 and to them a subsequent 20/30% drop doesn't matter.

[ajayhkaul]

Vinay you mean a 30% drop from 4600 wont matter to these funds ? Long only is what horizon ? Do they know that a fund subscriber has a life span

[psalm]

It depends. They wont mind if a particular stocks in their portfolio crashes suddenly by 20 or 30 percent, unless the fundamentals change for that particular stock. However, 30% drop in their portfolio???......hmn....then the rupee will crash again....hehehe..

[vinay28]

yes i meant 20/30% fall in the stocks in their portfolio. but then they are well spread in that they also have defensive stocks. Their outlook is for at least 3 years. and they will keep on buying at all lower levels. also, presently they would have invested about 10% of their allocation.

way back in 1990 when they started trickling in, their target was 35% gain (total, not yearly) in 5 years. trust me, I now this for sure. but rallies in late 90s and later last decade made them greedy because they made many times their investments. Even today, in last one year, they have not offloaded much.

By the way, something is going to give in. volume in first 30 mintues today has exceeded 1 lac cr.

[psalm]

[ajayhkaul]

Vinay , the volume is test data? They are testing some new system etc..

Nothing spectacular will happen today.