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Nifty View |
psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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Post: #286  Posted: Thu Jan 19, 2012 10:43 pm Post subject: Neutral View |
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Vinay,
I have seen many fundamentalists taking a bullish view for our markets. I am not in a position to assess it in terms of fundamentals. Its not that easy for me. However, technical analysis is much easier, not only for me, but for others as well, I guess because of the easier representations and interpretations.
Looking at the chart in a very simple way, one can see that the market has been in a downtrend for the last year or so and that the trend has not changed at all. So, there is no need to change that view as of now. The reason is that Nifty has not been able to break the downward channel yet. As long as Nifty is positioned below it downward sloping trend-line, there is no need to change the view that this is just a pullback.
According to a report in Economic Times, greed and fear were the main reasons behind rupee fall. When the rupee tumbled 20% against the dollar in four months, between August 9 and December 15, fingers were pointed at foreign institutional investors (FIIs), who were big sellers of Indian stocks. But data for the period shows that FIIs still brought in more money than they took out, though this net figure was about a tenth of the amount in the corresponding period a year ago. For more info, check the link given below:
http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-01-16/news/30632086_1_dollar-inflows-dollar-today-rupee
NOTE: I have more of a Neutral stand now. I was a bit bullish about the market a few days back...when the market was around 4800 levels. But the market has gone up a lot after that....Though i'm expecting another 130 to 150 point rally in the nifty, I'll be exiting my LONGs in the area 5060-5160. The 200 day SMA, which has been acting as a resistance for the last few months, for the market is around 5220..My Stoploss will be just above 5230....
Regards,
Sam |
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ajayhkaul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866
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| Post: #287 Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2012 1:00 am Post subject: |
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psalm... as vinay has pointed out , there is tremendous amount of liquidity in the market as of now and it is linked to ECB and other inflows.
Remember, just around the year end the sentiment was draculean/bearish? I kept saying in my posts that 'market never crashes on bearish sentiment'....You need greed, lots of it .
How come you are 'comfortable' (Above all, i'm comfortable as long as 4890 is held...that's y i feel that there is nothing much to worry as of now.... )now?
People are wondering how long the good times will last ! so the feeling of dread ....
Its just the fiat currencies at the moment. And they are parked into our equities and debt right now.
Pump and Dump ?
5160 is a safe target , but I need to also see money moving out ....just as we can see it moving in right now.
PSUs--== look at charts of MMTC/HMT/HIND COPPER ... insiders know something ? |
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rk_a2003
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Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #288 Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2012 8:03 am Post subject: |
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Yes! 5230 -5330 (gap up and downs made by Nifty earlier) is going to be a strong hurdle to overcome but before that 5100 – 5170 too seems to be offering considerable resistance.
Meanwhile there are two minor gap ups made by nifty in recent times waiting to be filled. Will they! 
It looks sensible to book profits on longs around 5100 and stay in side lines till there is a clear move either side.....Any comments.
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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| Post: #289 Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2012 8:53 am Post subject: |
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| gaps should get filled up on monday, tuesday & friday |
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psalm
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Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #290 Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2012 9:09 am Post subject: |
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| AJAYHKAUL wrote: | psalm... as vinay has pointed out , there is tremendous amount of liquidity in the market as of now and it is linked to ECB and other inflows.
Remember, just around the year end the sentiment was draculean/bearish? I kept saying in my posts that 'market never crashes on bearish sentiment'....You need greed, lots of it .
How come you are 'comfortable' (Above all, i'm comfortable as long as 4890 is held...that's y i feel that there is nothing much to worry as of now.... )now?
People are wondering how long the good times will last ! so the feeling of dread ....
Its just the fiat currencies at the moment. And they are parked into our equities and debt right now.
Pump and Dump ?
5160 is a safe target , but I need to also see money moving out ....just as we can see it moving in right now.
PSUs--== look at charts of MMTC/HMT/HIND COPPER ... insiders know something ? |
Yes, Ajay I agree that there is tremendous amount of liquidity in the market now. Also, you were right with your thoughts last month. I was expecting another leg down before a pullback reaching this level where we are currently. By the way, dont get excited by the charts of Hindustan Copper and MMTC....the free-float of these companies are just around half a percent(99.5% or more is owned by the government).
I'm comfortable if the market holds the 4900 levels because until that level is broken, i dont have to change my opinion about the market. And I support the view posted here by RK. He has mentioned about the gaps created earlier. That is precisely the reason why i have opted for a Stoploss above 5230.....because of the gap created earlier. If 5230 is broken, then the market could test the 5330 levels. For my strategical clarity, i am not considering the chance of Nifty breaking the 5230 levels. My strategy goes as per the condition that Nifty wont break 5230. I have opted for this strategy as things are a bit clear untill this point.
By the way, if Nifty breaks 5230, I'll get out of my positions and will be on the sidelines. Then I'll be watching the higher levels like 5400 or so. As I have mentioned earlier, I'm bearish as far as the next year for the market is concerned. As long as the higher levels are intact, I wont have to change that opinion. But if those levels are broken, then I'll have to re-assess my long term strategy and I will.
Regards |
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psalm
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Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #291 Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2012 9:23 am Post subject: Nifty Outlook |
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Hi All,
The support for the market exists in the range 4980-4990 and the resistance will be in the range 5060-5070. Any violation of these levels will change the sentiments during the day.
Regards,
Sam |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #292 Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2012 10:15 am Post subject: Re: Bank Nifty |
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| psalm wrote: | | psalm wrote: | | psalm wrote: | | psalm wrote: | | Bank Nifty has important resistance in the range 8620-8640 (spot levels). Once this level is crossed, there is every chance of testing 9800 levls. However, the first resistance will come around 9400. Since the upside targets are pretty high, watch it carefully. If crossed the resistances with good volumes, you can go for aggressive LONGs, I believe. For a confirmation, you can wait for 8665. |
In my view, Bank Nifty has become bullish. Now the trading range will be 8300 on the down side and 9400 on the upside. So, one can buy it around 8550 if it comes there with a Stop loss below 8450 for positional trades. |
Those who are holding BankNifty can have the stoploss modified to comfortable levels according to their risk appetite. I'll be modifying it to 8650...just around my cost..... |
I'm modifying the stoploss of my BankNifty Fut positions to just below 8950....I expect some profit booking around 9100....At the same time, I'm still holding for 9400.....  |
Hi,
Those who are holding the BANKNIFTY stocks.....please watch out for the level 9400....there could be resistance....Try to book partial profit around those levels.....
Regards,
Sam |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #293 Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2012 10:36 am Post subject: |
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| nifty should make a move either way within next 10 min. I feel lower |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #294 Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2012 10:58 am Post subject: Re: Bank Nifty |
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| psalm wrote: | | psalm wrote: | | psalm wrote: | | psalm wrote: | | psalm wrote: | | Bank Nifty has important resistance in the range 8620-8640 (spot levels). Once this level is crossed, there is every chance of testing 9800 levls. However, the first resistance will come around 9400. Since the upside targets are pretty high, watch it carefully. If crossed the resistances with good volumes, you can go for aggressive LONGs, I believe. For a confirmation, you can wait for 8665. |
In my view, Bank Nifty has become bullish. Now the trading range will be 8300 on the down side and 9400 on the upside. So, one can buy it around 8550 if it comes there with a Stop loss below 8450 for positional trades. |
Those who are holding BankNifty can have the stoploss modified to comfortable levels according to their risk appetite. I'll be modifying it to 8650...just around my cost..... |
I'm modifying the stoploss of my BankNifty Fut positions to just below 8950....I expect some profit booking around 9100....At the same time, I'm still holding for 9400..... |
Hi,
Those who are holding the BANKNIFTY stocks.....please watch out for the level 9400....there could be resistance....Try to book partial profit around those levels.....
Regards,
Sam |
Bank Nifty has achieved the first target of 9400.... 
But I'm cautious now....watch out...
Regards,
Sam |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #295 Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2012 11:04 am Post subject: |
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| at last it made a move albeit oppo to my feeling! |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #296 Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2012 11:10 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | at last it made a move albeit oppo to my feeling! |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #297 Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2012 1:59 pm Post subject: Re: Bank Nifty |
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| psalm wrote: | | psalm wrote: | | psalm wrote: | | psalm wrote: | | psalm wrote: | | Bank Nifty has important resistance in the range 8620-8640 (spot levels). Once this level is crossed, there is every chance of testing 9800 levls. However, the first resistance will come around 9400. Since the upside targets are pretty high, watch it carefully. If crossed the resistances with good volumes, you can go for aggressive LONGs, I believe. For a confirmation, you can wait for 8665. |
In my view, Bank Nifty has become bullish. Now the trading range will be 8300 on the down side and 9400 on the upside. So, one can buy it around 8550 if it comes there with a Stop loss below 8450 for positional trades. |
Those who are holding BankNifty can have the stoploss modified to comfortable levels according to their risk appetite. I'll be modifying it to 8650...just around my cost..... |
I'm modifying the stoploss of my BankNifty Fut positions to just below 8950....I expect some profit booking around 9100....At the same time, I'm still holding for 9400..... |
Hi,
Those who are holding the BANKNIFTY stocks.....please watch out for the level 9400....there could be resistance....Try to book partial profit around those levels.....
Regards,
Sam |
WOW...Bank Nifty at 9500!!!....up by around 3.5%...... 
Looks like BankNifty will test 9800....if thats the case, Nifty will test 5150-5160.....I believe...
Regards,
Sam |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #298 Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2012 3:26 pm Post subject: Re: Nifty Outlook |
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| psalm wrote: | Hi All,
The support for the market exists in the range 4980-4990 and the resistance will be in the range 5060-5070. Any violation of these levels will change the sentiments during the day.
Regards,
Sam |
Nifty has touched 5065...and is trading around 5057.....I'm seeing a lot of indications which are typical of forming market highs...but nothing to be worried too much.....Its better to be light on positions, i feel.....carrying positions appears risky.....
Regards
Sam |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #299 Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2012 7:44 pm Post subject: |
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| True. I have taken a chance by selling my longs and going short at 5063. I feel monday and tuesday will be down. PCR ratio was 1.5 on 19th, close to 6 month high of 1.56. |
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ajayhkaul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866
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| Post: #300 Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2012 3:45 pm Post subject: |
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| AJAYHKAUL wrote: | Market is building up for a major move again.... barring a black swan event , we are headed quite high this time.
RBI is dovish ...so banks are up .
Government has to sell PSU holdings .
Black money is coming via the market route ? Now foreign individuals can directly invest as per new rules.
psalm is already complacent
but the Ducks are yet to come in ...are beginners already asking you for 'tips' ? that is the beginning of the duck entry.
When the taxi driver gives YOU a tip , thats the time to run ...... so a longish wait for distribution ...
black swan from eurozone or US ? |
Bet you guys didn't expect the last minute surge on Friday !
Dont fight the liquidity .... of course , as I always say .... agility and discipline...
Vinay .. remember the Cup and handle ? what do you think , we are going to firm the bottom of the handle this month ? |
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