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psalm Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011 Posts: 5368
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Post: #301 Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2012 5:35 pm Post subject: Yesterday's Trade |
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AJAYHKAUL wrote: | AJAYHKAUL wrote: | Market is building up for a major move again.... barring a black swan event , we are headed quite high this time.
RBI is dovish ...so banks are up .
Government has to sell PSU holdings .
Black money is coming via the market route ? Now foreign individuals can directly invest as per new rules.
psalm is already complacent
but the Ducks are yet to come in ...are beginners already asking you for 'tips' ? that is the beginning of the duck entry.
When the taxi driver gives YOU a tip , thats the time to run ...... so a longish wait for distribution ...
black swan from eurozone or US ? |
Bet you guys didn't expect the last minute surge on Friday !
Dont fight the liquidity .... of course , as I always say .... agility and discipline...
Vinay .. remember the Cup and handle ? what do you think , we are going to firm the bottom of the handle this month ? |
Ajay,
Normally, when market is about to form a TOP or BOTTOM, you'll hear things like this....some will be saying about the impending CRASH...some will be saying about a possible RALLY. When most of the people are talking about a new high or a breakout, then that's the time to get out of your LONGs. When most people are bearish and are thinking about the next crash, that's the time to put the money into the market. This is not a new theory. This has been there for decades or even centuries. For the last few weeks or months, people have been saying about a crash after forming another top(I'm one of them). Only 5 or 10 % of the people were optimistic about the markets and its valuations. One thing I have noticed in the last few days is that the number of people supporting a Rally is increasing. 5-10% has increased to something like a 15-20%. I find this situation very interesting. The pessimism about the market is going away slowly but steadily. Will there be a situation, when the market is around 5200 or 5300 (if it goes there), where most of the people support a Rally??..if it happens, that will be the time to exit and that could be the moment, the FIIs or Hedge Fund guys might be waiting for.
Talking about yesterday's trade, it was a pleasant surprise that the Bank Nifty rallied so much. I'm saying "so much" because, the overall market hasn't been doing exceptionally well. I never expected BankNifty to break 9400 so easily. This makes me more suspicious. This is more like a trader's rally than an investor's rally. That means more of a technical rally. Another thing I have noticed about yesterday's trade is the VIX....Look at the chart of INDIAVIX...The high was around 22.3 and the low was around 18 (almost 20% crash from the top). When I was checking it, I really felt that yesterday's move was clearly an orchestrated one.
NOTE: By saying all these things, I'm not rejecting the possibility of an up-move from here. If it happens, that means if it breaks above 5350-5400 levels, I wont hesitate to join the party. But till that time, I'll be a Bear. I might exit my SHORT positions if 5230 is broken, but I wont create any LONG positions until 5400 is crossed. I still believe that the market wont break 5230 levels.
Regards,
Sam |
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ajayhkaul Yellow Belt
Joined: 18 Jun 2009 Posts: 866
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Post: #302 Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2012 6:29 pm Post subject: |
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At the moment psalm looks like we could see 5130- 5180 -5230 - 5280 . And beyond 5280 is another story ...but we await the market move in the stated order.
Government just changed some norms on IPOs.... so they know its time for IPOs to raise money from the public. Again, the PSU disinvestment plans may be revived. For all this to happen , the ducks have to come home and that can happen only if the liquidity sloshes around our market and things start to bubble.... |
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Padkondu White Belt
Joined: 23 Jan 2008 Posts: 120
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Post: #303 Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2012 8:09 pm Post subject: |
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AJAYHKAUL wrote: | At the moment psalm looks like we could see 5130- 5180 -5230 - 5280 . And beyond 5280 is another story ...but we await the market move in the stated order.
Government just changed some norms on IPOs.... so they know its time for IPOs to raise money from the public. Again, the PSU disinvestment plans may be revived. For all this to happen , the ducks have to come home and that can happen only if the liquidity sloshes around our market and things start to bubble.... | Hi All.
let us have a look at the point and figure chart i hv been maintaining for the last 1 year or so.
any move above 5150 constitutes the break out of the down trend line resistance from 28/10/2011. then there is a strong resistance at 5150,5200. any move above 5250 will take the market to 5400. market may take reversal from any of these points and only above 5450 the long awaited long term up trend will appear.
then the daily chaart of nifty also there with all resistance lines and 200 sma standing at 5220. 50% fibonacci pivot over trailing 12 months standing at 5233. is it not a spinning top is star position formed on friday.... indecision. if low of the friday is breached i consider going short.
so i booked all longs.
there could non technical moves between 5050-5250. if moves above 5250...then i consider going long till 5400.... between 5050 and 5250... i stay away or find some stocks that move their own way... irrespective of market.
this is my plan for the week ahead...
regards
padkondu |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #304 Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 1:56 pm Post subject: |
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First of all, I have booked longs and gone short not because I believe a crash is coming but because I feel from 23rd jan to 3rd feb only 25 jan and 1st & 3rd feb may be up (up and down as defined in earlier post).
Add to that my belief in the power of 7 e.g. I feel that when market goes up by 11.2 to 12.25% from bottom, it reacts 1.75 to 3.5%. Bottom was 4531 so you can do your calculations.
If you remember, I had earlier given the following numbers for the majority who believe that this is just a bear market rally and it has to end soon
5159, 4856, 5257 and then make your choice e.g. 4400+, 4200+, 3900+, 3600+, etc. the worst case being 2894.
For the very small minority who believe that bottom is already over, I feel the numbers are
5435, 4676 and then at least 6800+
I will try to move with market.
Last edited by vinay28 on Sun Jan 22, 2012 8:09 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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rk_a2003 Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010 Posts: 2734
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Post: #305 Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 5:36 pm Post subject: |
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Nifty is moving around 5100 levels. We may observe resistance around5050-5075. 19th Exhaustion gap calls for an alert. In case of any gap down in the coming day’s Nifty may visit levels around 4840.One may look at it as a make or break level.
Friday Doji formation should make us more cautious.
By saying this one cannot rule out the upside possibilities. In case the brutal power of liquidity continues from outside…Nothing can stop Nifty from reaching 5200.For sensing this in advance we have to keep an eye on $-Rs exchange rate movement. But one way directional moves nonstop are rare phenomena even in Nifty or in exchange rate.
Watch out........ And act ...No need to embrace a preconceived notion. |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #306 Posted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 8:44 am Post subject: |
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sgxnifty shows a high of 5208 and a 105 point 5 tf red candle. 5087 the last time I saw |
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psalm Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011 Posts: 5368
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Post: #307 Posted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 9:01 am Post subject: Nifty Outlook |
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I have no idea what is going to happen today. Looks like another volatile day. However, as long as 4940 is held on a closing basis, one can hold onto the LONGs, I guess. At the same time, I'll be reducing my LONGs, especially in the NIFTY FUT, in the range 5060-5160 levels. That means booking profit on every rise. I'll be really cautious on opening further LONGs. At the same time, I'm against opening new SHORTs as well, especially on an Intraday basis. Let's see how the market pans out today.
Regards
Sam |
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psalm Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011 Posts: 5368
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Post: #308 Posted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 10:21 am Post subject: Nifty Update |
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5070 is the level to watch now. Once above 5070, market might reach 5100-5110 very easily, I guess. However, there are a lot of resistance in the range 5050-5150 levels. One should be really careful in that range. Trading without stop-losses might hurt badly.
Regards,
Sam |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #309 Posted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 11:44 am Post subject: |
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5010 looks possible today considering that FIIs are unhappy about RIL data |
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psalm Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011 Posts: 5368
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Post: #310 Posted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 12:00 pm Post subject: Nifty |
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Most of the FIIs were expecting this kinda result, I guess. Do u think that they didn't have any info abt the result?????...By the way, I too expect the support for the market in the range 5015-5010(spot), but below that you can expect 4940-4950 levels, which i guess will hold, in a day or two i guess. |
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psalm Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011 Posts: 5368
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Post: #311 Posted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 12:33 pm Post subject: Re: Bank Nifty |
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psalm wrote: | psalm wrote: | psalm wrote: | psalm wrote: | psalm wrote: | psalm wrote: | Bank Nifty has important resistance in the range 8620-8640 (spot levels). Once this level is crossed, there is every chance of testing 9800 levls. However, the first resistance will come around 9400. Since the upside targets are pretty high, watch it carefully. If crossed the resistances with good volumes, you can go for aggressive LONGs, I believe. For a confirmation, you can wait for 8665. |
In my view, Bank Nifty has become bullish. Now the trading range will be 8300 on the down side and 9400 on the upside. So, one can buy it around 8550 if it comes there with a Stop loss below 8450 for positional trades. |
Those who are holding BankNifty can have the stoploss modified to comfortable levels according to their risk appetite. I'll be modifying it to 8650...just around my cost..... |
I'm modifying the stoploss of my BankNifty Fut positions to just below 8950....I expect some profit booking around 9100....At the same time, I'm still holding for 9400..... |
Hi,
Those who are holding the BANKNIFTY stocks.....please watch out for the level 9400....there could be resistance....Try to book partial profit around those levels.....
Regards,
Sam |
WOW...Bank Nifty at 9500!!!....up by around 3.5%......
Looks like BankNifty will test 9800....if thats the case, Nifty will test 5150-5160.....I believe...
Regards,
Sam |
Bank Nifty has gone up by around 1000 points from the time of its breakout around 8660. So, one can expect some profit booking. Be careful. At the same time, I still expect it to test 9800 levels.
Regards,
Sam |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #312 Posted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 12:52 pm Post subject: |
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nifty is at 25 discount to sgxnifty. this is the first time I am seeing it. something is brewing? |
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Vinodz White Belt
Joined: 13 Aug 2011 Posts: 78
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Post: #313 Posted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 12:56 pm Post subject: vinay |
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vinay, wht could it possibly be |
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psalm Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011 Posts: 5368
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Post: #314 Posted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 1:24 pm Post subject: SGX Nifty |
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There is not much difference between Nifty and SGX Nifty...SGXNIFTY is trading at 5044.5 now. The low made was 5036 and the high made was 5096. |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #315 Posted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 1:27 pm Post subject: |
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where r u getting that data? sgxnifty is 5075 right now |
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