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ragarwal
Yellow Belt
Joined: 16 Nov 2008
Posts: 582
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Post: #361  Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2012 4:21 pm Post subject: |
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dear sam , nifty puts of which strike rate cn v buy tom 4900,5000 ot lower too,
regds rashmi |
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sachin2278
White Belt
Joined: 13 Jun 2011
Posts: 21
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| Post: #362 Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2012 4:33 pm Post subject: Trading for Expiry |
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| hi ! What will be the nifty expiry range for tommorow. |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #363 Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2012 4:37 pm Post subject: |
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| ragarwal wrote: | dear sam , nifty puts of which strike rate cn v buy tom 4900,5000 ot lower too,
regds rashmi |
Rashmi,
First of all, the shorts I'm having are positional shorts. So, Suppose there is a gap-down opening tomorrow around 5080 and you have bought 5100 FEB PUTs, even then your stoploss must be the same. For me, my stoploss is around 5230. Its upto you to decide which Strike Price you want to buy. In my opinion, there is nothing wrong in buying 5100 PUTs. However, if you prefer to have lesser volatility and safety, then you can opt for lower strike prices. Nothing wrong with that. I dont think we'll get a clear direction from the market this week. So, the market might swing here and there. Go ahead after considering all these factors.
Regards,
Sam |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #364 Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2012 4:47 pm Post subject: Re: Trading for Expiry |
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| sachin2278 wrote: | | hi ! What will be the nifty expiry range for tommorow. |
Its pretty difficult to predict that Sachin...Our markets closed on a high today....but if you look at Europe, those indices are down by around 1%. There will be some buying tomorrow because of the momentum we had today. So, considering all these things, one can expect a pretty volatile session tomorrow. 5100 and 5050 are the crucial levels. closing below 5045 will indicate the intermediate top. However, i dont expect the market to lose soo much momentum tomorrow. On the upside, 5160-5170 will act as resistance I guess. So, it will be an interesting session. Let's see how it pans out.
Regards,
Sam |
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sachin2278
White Belt
Joined: 13 Jun 2011
Posts: 21
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| Post: #365 Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2012 5:16 pm Post subject: |
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the data from nse site shows 5000 put highest open interest, does that mean its unlikely to break below 5000 for tommorow.....
plz comment |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #366 Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2012 6:39 pm Post subject: Outlook for tomorrow |
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| sachin2278 wrote: | the data from nse site shows 5000 put highest open interest, does that mean its unlikely to break below 5000 for tommorow.....
plz comment |
YES, sachin, I dont expect the market to cross 5000 levels tomorrow. I expect it only on Monday. I expect the market to be volatile in the next two days, but i dont expect any huge SELL-OFFs. A close below 3-day EMA will give the first signal of weakness. Now the 3-day EMA is at 5078. As long as the NIFTY closes above this level, the market will have buyers to support it. However, a break below its 8-day EMA will also, weaken the momentum. 8-day EMA is currently at 5000. So, I dont expect the market to go below that easily. In my opinion, tomorrow and Friday are the opportunities to exit the LONG and to create SHORT positions. I wont be surprised if the market breaks the HIGH made today on Friday. But I dont expect it to CLOSE higher than 5127 (today's close). We might witness huge selling pressure next week. I expect the market to make a new LOW soon, even before 10th of February.
NOTE: These are my assumptions and opinion as per my chart studies. Please have your own studies before coming to a conclusion.
Regards,
Sam |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #367 Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2012 7:33 pm Post subject: |
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| unless you are agile, buy 4900 or 5000 Feb put, not jan put |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #368 Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2012 8:09 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | unless you are agile, buy 4900 or 5000 Feb put, not jan put |
Yup..sachin...you should consider this suggestion.... |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #369 Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 9:11 am Post subject: NIFTY OUTLOOK |
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Hi All,
Another volatile day on the cards. Support for the day exists in the range 5080-5070 while the resistance will be in the range 5155-5165. Its always better to book profit at higher levels.
Note: BankNifty will face resistance at 9950 levels
Regards,
Sam |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #370 Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 9:45 am Post subject: |
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| FIIs have made 17% profit in jan. PCR is 1.71. rupee is declining slightly |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #371 Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 9:58 am Post subject: Nifty |
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Yes Vinay...from 4700 or 4800 onwards, they were building long positions, I guess....So, they must be sitting on a good profit now......By the way, I have sold NIFTY again today. I was expecting 5160, u knw. I think you remember me saying that (I was planning to sell in the range 5060-5160, with stoploss just above 5230). I haven't changed my strategy yet. Its the same. I haven't changed the view as well. I'm not saying that Market cant be bullish. But the chances of another leg of up-move from here looks pretty difficult. I'll give it a 10% chance for that. Nifty 200-day SMA is around 5210 now...If it is broken, then one will have to reassess the strategy. But till that time, nothing will happen as far as the long term trend is concerned.
Regards,
Sam |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #372 Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 10:38 am Post subject: |
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| yes sam. I think expiry will be below 5100. nifty may still go to 5400+ but before that it should come down a bit. |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #373 Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 10:44 am Post subject: Expiry |
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| Let's see....No idea about the closing for the day....wont be below 5080, I guess. |
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Nilay
White Belt
Joined: 04 Jul 2011
Posts: 52
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| Post: #374 Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 10:45 am Post subject: |
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Hi sam, closing above 200 ema is not a bullish signal? one has to look for 200 sma also just a query?
Thanks
Nilay |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #375 Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 10:51 am Post subject: |
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| Nilay wrote: | Hi sam, closing above 200 ema is not a bullish signal? one has to look for 200 sma also just a query?
Thanks
Nilay |
Closing above the 200 day EMA was expected, Nilay....but 200-day SMA is the important level. If that is broken, then one will have to relook at their strategy.
NOTE: Please check the POSTs on 12th January......I have mentioned it clearly there.
Regards,
Sam |
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