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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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Post: #376  Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 10:53 am Post subject: Re: Market Top |
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| psalm wrote: | Ajay,
Have you noticed one thing...All the big SELL-OFFs have come when the market has gone above the 200-day EMA...I mean the start of the SELL-OFFs were all from above the 200-day EMAs. Please check the chart for the days 8th November 2010, 4th Jan 2010, 6th April 2011, 8th July 2011 and 28th October 2011. You can find that these are the days when market tops were formed. Interestingly, all the closing on these days are above the 200-day EMAs. In the last 2 instances, the 200-day SMA has been acting as resistance and I believe it is going to continue. So, as per the trend, one can expect the market to close above the 200-day EMA atleast for a day before the next correction gets started. And one can expect the 200-day SMA to provide the resistance.
NOTE: 200-day EMA is around 5150 now....and the 200-day SMA is around 5250 now.....So, its not a surprise that the FIIs are adding their positions....They'll get 300 points at the least if they are are LONG in NIFTY.... |
This was the POST i was mentioning Nilay....check it out..... |
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ajayhkaul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866
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| Post: #377 Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 11:12 am Post subject: |
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Psalm sometime ago I had posted a co-relation chart between the QE 1 AND 2 and the rise of Nifty.
Now ECB has printed money , so its QE3 now and Nifty is likely to breakout of the downtrend line and it should be interesting to see if we have juice left to cross 5400 decisively.
3 trillion is a lot of fiat money ..... |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #378 Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 11:18 am Post subject: Market |
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| Yup, Ajay...its a lot of money.....As I was saying earlier, I"ll change myself to be a Bull, If I feel that the market has changed its course. But I'll be waiting for the levels to be crossed.....especially 5230...which is not far from here.... |
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Nilay
White Belt
Joined: 04 Jul 2011
Posts: 52
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| Post: #379 Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 11:19 am Post subject: Re: Market Top |
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| psalm wrote: | | psalm wrote: | Ajay,
Have you noticed one thing...All the big SELL-OFFs have come when the market has gone above the 200-day EMA...I mean the start of the SELL-OFFs were all from above the 200-day EMAs. Please check the chart for the days 8th November 2010, 4th Jan 2010, 6th April 2011, 8th July 2011 and 28th October 2011. You can find that these are the days when market tops were formed. Interestingly, all the closing on these days are above the 200-day EMAs. In the last 2 instances, the 200-day SMA has been acting as resistance and I believe it is going to continue. So, as per the trend, one can expect the market to close above the 200-day EMA atleast for a day before the next correction gets started. And one can expect the 200-day SMA to provide the resistance.
NOTE: 200-day EMA is around 5150 now....and the 200-day SMA is around 5250 now.....So, its not a surprise that the FIIs are adding their positions....They'll get 300 points at the least if they are are LONG in NIFTY.... |
This was the POST i was mentioning Nilay....check it out..... |
Thanks sam
Nilay |
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rk_a2003
Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #380 Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 11:24 am Post subject: |
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| AJAYHKAUL wrote: | Psalm sometime ago I had posted a co-relation chart between the QE 1 AND 2 and the rise of Nifty.
Now ECB has printed money , so its QE3 now and Nifty is likely to breakout of the downtrend line and it should be interesting to see if we have juice left to cross 5400 decisively.
3 trillion is a lot of fiat money ..... |
True!It is a fact that whenever money is printed and distributed in USA or in Europe .Stock markets worldwide rise.
How they find path in to equity markets? After all the money distributed is not at all for Equity Markets!.
As far as my knowledge goes this money is officially meant for distributing unemployment benefits, subsidies or to infuse capital in to Countries/ Banks etc…….
Ajay, Vinay, Sam & Others
Please! throw some light on this.
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #381 Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 11:36 am Post subject: |
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what's your problem rk, as long as you are making money? 
J/K
to be serious, the newly printed money goes into financial markets, so....... |
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psalm
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Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #382 Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 11:42 am Post subject: |
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| rk_a2003 wrote: | | AJAYHKAUL wrote: | Psalm sometime ago I had posted a co-relation chart between the QE 1 AND 2 and the rise of Nifty.
Now ECB has printed money , so its QE3 now and Nifty is likely to breakout of the downtrend line and it should be interesting to see if we have juice left to cross 5400 decisively.
3 trillion is a lot of fiat money ..... |
True!It is a fact that whenever money is printed and distributed in USA or in Europe .Stock markets worldwide rise.
How they find path in to equity markets? After all the money distributed is not at all for Equity Markets!.
As far as my knowledge goes this money is officially meant for distributing unemployment benefits, subsidies or to infuse capital in to Countries/ Banks etc…….
Ajay, Vinay, Sam & Others
Please! throw some light on this.
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I was reading an article a few days ago....In that it was mentioning the money FIIs have poured in India this year so far...Its around 25000 crores. Out of that Only 6000 have come to the Equity market. The rest was for the Debt market. |
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psalm
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #384 Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 12:23 pm Post subject: |
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no matter what anyone says, market has gone up ONLY because India is loosing against Australia in cricket! If market has to go down, India must win or draw this test.
J/K |
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ajayhkaul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866
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| Post: #385 Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 12:32 pm Post subject: |
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| rk_a2003 wrote: | | AJAYHKAUL wrote: | Psalm sometime ago I had posted a co-relation chart between the QE 1 AND 2 and the rise of Nifty.
Now ECB has printed money , so its QE3 now and Nifty is likely to breakout of the downtrend line and it should be interesting to see if we have juice left to cross 5400 decisively.
3 trillion is a lot of fiat money ..... |
True!It is a fact that whenever money is printed and distributed in USA or in Europe .Stock markets worldwide rise.
How they find path in to equity markets? After all the money distributed is not at all for Equity Markets!.
As far as my knowledge goes this money is officially meant for distributing unemployment benefits, subsidies or to infuse capital in to Countries/ Banks etc…….
Ajay, Vinay, Sam & Others
Please! throw some light on this.
|
RK ... the money( aka fiat currency) that gets printed is by the government to pay their bills such as salaries to government employees , medical , facilities upkeep etc.
It is also available to the banks so that they don't collapse if there is a run at the bank, even to encourage them to lend to businesses.
However , the banks are scared of lending this ZIRP (ALMOST ZERO INTEREST money) funds and instead they go to countries where they can get a higher interest rates for their cash ..such as India .
In debt they have a guaranteed interest income while in equities they hope to earn higher than debt .Being riskier, the amounts in equities tend to be lower than debt , though high enough to rocket the market.
Obviously ,they make money when they book profits ie sell ..... so ultimately they they will get out . Period of stay in equities is based on how the overall economy behaves and when the ducks are all in and quacking loudest because till date fiat currencies have not managed to solve any of the core issues as mentioned in my other threads. |
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ajayhkaul
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Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866
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| Post: #386 Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 12:39 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | no matter what anyone says, market has gone up ONLY because India is loosing against Australia in cricket! If market has to go down, India must win or draw this test.
J/K |
I recall someone had posted that India losing = market crash , right? But Vinay is a contrarian on this one , I guess .
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #387 Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 12:42 pm Post subject: |
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yes ajay, I had an opposite view on this.
now waiting for the expiry day big move! |
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sachin2278
White Belt
Joined: 13 Jun 2011
Posts: 21
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| Post: #388 Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 1:50 pm Post subject: |
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| does it seems nifty will rally till 5200...... |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #389 Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 1:50 pm Post subject: Nifty |
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| Looks like Nifty might come to 5115-5110 levels soon..... |
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rk_a2003
Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #390 Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 2:21 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | what's your problem rk, as long as you are making money?
J/K
to be serious, the newly printed money goes into financial markets, so....... |
Yes! What these Morons are advocating......Can they survive if every one stop working and all the countries print money and distribute to their citizens?! |
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