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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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Post: #391  Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 2:32 pm Post subject: |
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| rk_a2003 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | what's your problem rk, as long as you are making money? 
J/K
to be serious, the newly printed money goes into financial markets, so....... |
Yes! What these Morons are advocating......Can they survive if every one stop working and all the countries print money and distribute to their citizens?! |
Socialism at its best.... |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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| Post: #392 Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 2:36 pm Post subject: |
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sam we may see 5200 today itself
can you believe that 30% OI is rolled over? that means there are still a lot shorts in market. they will be mauled. |
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rk_a2003
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Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #393 Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 2:37 pm Post subject: |
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| At Best or at Worst..... |
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psalm
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Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #394 Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 2:40 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | sam we may see 5200 today itself
can you believe that 30% OI is rolled over? that means there are still a lot shorts in market. they will be mauled. |
Cant rule out 5190 or around those levels....Let's see.. |
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peace69
White Belt
Joined: 27 Aug 2009
Posts: 113
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| Post: #395 Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 2:41 pm Post subject: |
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| AJAYHKAUL wrote: | | rk_a2003 wrote: | | AJAYHKAUL wrote: | Psalm sometime ago I had posted a co-relation chart between the QE 1 AND 2 and the rise of Nifty.
Now ECB has printed money , so its QE3 now and Nifty is likely to breakout of the downtrend line and it should be interesting to see if we have juice left to cross 5400 decisively.
3 trillion is a lot of fiat money ..... |
True!It is a fact that whenever money is printed and distributed in USA or in Europe .Stock markets worldwide rise.
How they find path in to equity markets? After all the money distributed is not at all for Equity Markets!.
As far as my knowledge goes this money is officially meant for distributing unemployment benefits, subsidies or to infuse capital in to Countries/ Banks etc…….
Ajay, Vinay, Sam & Others
Please! throw some light on this.
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RK ... the money( aka fiat currency) that gets printed is by the government to pay their bills such as salaries to government employees , medical , facilities upkeep etc.
It is also available to the banks so that they don't collapse if there is a run at the bank, even to encourage them to lend to businesses.
However , the banks are scared of lending this ZIRP (ALMOST ZERO INTEREST money) funds and instead they go to countries where they can get a higher interest rates for their cash ..such as India .
In debt they have a guaranteed interest income while in equities they hope to earn higher than debt .Being riskier, the amounts in equities tend to be lower than debt , though high enough to rocket the market.
Obviously ,they make money when they book profits ie sell ..... so ultimately they they will get out . Period of stay in equities is based on how the overall economy behaves and when the ducks are all in and quacking loudest because till date fiat currencies have not managed to solve any of the core issues as mentioned in my other threads. |
hi Ajay. considering possible repo &/or rev repo rate cut following cut in crr, isn't it possible to start of shifting cash from debt to equity mkt as such cut in rate will lead tro lessen return from debt? just a thought. what u say? regards. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #396 Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 2:54 pm Post subject: |
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| peace, yesterday's crr cut has released 32000 cr of liquidity for banks. but that can not come to equity market since retail banks can not invest. debt market is already affected |
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peace69
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Joined: 27 Aug 2009
Posts: 113
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| Post: #397 Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 3:01 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | peace, yesterday's crr cut has released 32000 cr of liquidity for banks. but that can not come to equity market since retail banks can not invest. debt market is already affected |
hi vinay. yes u r right. but my query was regarding FIIs as majority of investment from their sd in last couple of mths r in debt segment as per ajay. so although process may be slow, isn't it possible to start to shift it from debt to equity mkt if rate is going to cut dwn from here on? |
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rk_a2003
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Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #398 Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 3:03 pm Post subject: |
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| peace69 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | peace, yesterday's crr cut has released 32000 cr of liquidity for banks. but that can not come to equity market since retail banks can not invest. debt market is already affected |
hi vinay. yes u r right. but my query was regarding FII as majority of investment from their sd in last couple of mths r in debt segment as per ajay. so isn't it possible to start to shift it from debt to equity mkt if rate is going to cut dwn from here on? |
Yes peace
It is quite possible provided they decided so instead of withdrawing. |
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peace69
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Posts: 113
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| Post: #399 Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 3:07 pm Post subject: |
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| rk_a2003 wrote: | | peace69 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | peace, yesterday's crr cut has released 32000 cr of liquidity for banks. but that can not come to equity market since retail banks can not invest. debt market is already affected |
hi vinay. yes u r right. but my query was regarding FII as majority of investment from their sd in last couple of mths r in debt segment as per ajay. so isn't it possible to start to shift it from debt to equity mkt if rate is going to cut dwn from here on? |
Yes peace
It is quite possible provided they decided so instead of withdrawing. |
true rk. it's possibility. may be consider wait & watch till budget with cash on hand. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #400 Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 3:16 pm Post subject: |
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| oh, I thought your question was diferent. yes, they may invest in banks and other rate sensitive sectors |
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psalm
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Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #401 Posted: Fri Jan 27, 2012 8:57 am Post subject: Nifty Update |
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Our markets will be open today, after thursday's (Republic Day) holiday. Almost all the asian markets were in green when I checked last time. So, one can expect our markets to open with some gains. The European markets have closed yesterday with handsome gains. However, later in the day, the U.S. market couldn't sustain the gains they had earlier and closed in the red. The important thing to note there was the S&P 500 index. The S&P500 index made a high around 1333 and then closed around 1318. The levels 1331 and 1333 were the resistances I was looking and were held without any difficulties even though it was not a bad day as far as the macro economics were concerned (except for the Greece debate). Dow Jones Industrial also, struggled to remain at the top and had to close in the red. The downward targets for the Dow Jones now exists in the range 12000-12100, if it fails to cross 12810. One can expect the DOW to test 12000 in a week or two, I guess.
I believe that the best of of this pullback rally may be behind us. If it is not; then most probably, we can expect a top today or Monday. This is applicable not only to our markets but for other global markets as well. I expect a lot of bad news coming from Europe. Some analysts are expecting the second half of the result season to be very bad. Technically, the markets are looking heavily overbought and stretched. All these things points to an unstable and uncertaing tomorrow. TOMORROWs are always uncertain. Things could get better or worse. Nobody knows. So, if we think that we're at crossroads, or we're on the edge, take precaution. In market terms, avoid trading for the day or use hedges while trading. Even if we're not making money, make sure that we're not losing any. Be cautious, be safe.
Happy Trading!!!!! |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #402 Posted: Fri Jan 27, 2012 9:04 am Post subject: Nifty Levels |
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Hi All,
The support for the day exists in the range 5175-5185 and the range 5140-5130 will provide support on the downside. Any close below 5143 will be negative for the market. You can expect profit booking and marginal SHORTING on Monday if the market closes below 5143 today. Any break below 5130 will add more pressure during the day. However, if the market goes above 5210, one can expect the market to do well. But I dont think the market will break 5200-5205 levels easily.
Regards,
Sam |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #403 Posted: Fri Jan 27, 2012 9:23 am Post subject: Premium |
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NIFTY future is trading with premium of just 3. Remember, today is the first day of the next series. Also, its almost like a OPEN HIGH....I'm still maintaining my bearish view. Important level to watch is 5231....If this level is broken, then one can think of going LONG. But till that time, these are like Mouthwatering levels to SHORT...
Regards,
Sam |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #404 Posted: Fri Jan 27, 2012 9:34 am Post subject: Nifty Put |
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NIFTY PUTs:
One can buy the NIFTY 5000 PUTs around 48 with stoploss just below 40 for a target of 120. I expect the target to be reached on or before Wednesday. |
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ajayhkaul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866
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| Post: #405 Posted: Fri Jan 27, 2012 9:35 am Post subject: |
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| psalm wrote: | | AJAYHKAUL wrote: | | AJAYHKAUL wrote: | At the moment psalm looks like we could see 5130- 5180 -5230 - 5280 . And beyond 5280 is another story ...but we await the market move in the stated order.
Government just changed some norms on IPOs.... so they know its time for IPOs to raise money from the public. Again, the PSU disinvestment plans may be revived. For all this to happen , the ducks have to come home and that can happen only if the liquidity sloshes around our market and things start to bubble.... |
5177 TODAY? |
Ajay,
By the end of the day, you might see a lot of inverted hammers in charts, I guess....  ....Let's see...  |
we did 5130-5180 w/o any sweat.... and today they seem to have loaded more ammo to go further... |
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