iCharts Discussions

psalm · Black Belt Joined: 12 Nov 2011 Posts: 5368

BankNifty:

Looks like BankNifty has topped out. If so, one can look for a target 9400 and then 9100. Ultimately, one will be able to see the BankNifty around 8300-8400 levels, I guess.

Regards,

Sam

rk_a2003 · Black Belt Joined: 21 Jan 2010 Posts: 2734

Rupee hit 2 1/2 months high.It indicates.... Fund flow inwards is strong....take care!

SP50 · Brown Belt Joined: 26 Nov 2010 Posts: 1615

Looking at the way NF recovered and broke its morning high it will be quite insane to go short. 5250-5350 seems to be on as FII is very strong with only buy sentiment. I track USD/INR and my assessment is that till 48-48.50/USD the inflow will be strong. That will happen quickly I believe.

psalm · Black Belt Joined: 12 Nov 2011 Posts: 5368

Yup......i'm cautious too.... Smile

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

sam, nifty failed to cross 5170 many times in the past. today it is behaving as if 5170 is the bottom and it is in a mood to bulldoze past all resistances.

I too feel though that we are close to an end of this rally, at least for a few days.

rk_a2003 · Black Belt Joined: 21 Jan 2010 Posts: 2734

"today it is behaving as if 5170 is the bottom"

Laughing

This is the classic example of... Prior resistance become support and vice versa.

SP50 · Brown Belt Joined: 26 Nov 2010 Posts: 1615

We need a high volatility to mark the end of the upside rally. Europe / IMF is printing EUROs at the moment. Our market or markets anywhere is defying technicalities at the moment. I think on monday we will see a open around 5250.

rk_a2003 · Black Belt Joined: 21 Jan 2010 Posts: 2734

ajayhkaul · Yellow Belt Joined: 18 Jun 2009 Posts: 866

Do I notice that number of bullish people is increasing ?

Just keeping score , guys ......meanwhile dont forget to check your own self in the mirror ie the price/emotion chart posted in my thread.....You will be able to tell yourself when it is peaking time...

psalm · Black Belt Joined: 12 Nov 2011 Posts: 5368

acharyams · Yellow Belt Joined: 04 Jul 2010 Posts: 552

prabhu.f12 · White Belt Joined: 13 Apr 2011 Posts: 27

nifty is at 200 sma. will it be a resistence

psalm · Black Belt Joined: 12 Nov 2011 Posts: 5368

psalm · Black Belt Joined: 12 Nov 2011 Posts: 5368

Hi All,

Our markets have been going up for the last few weeks after hitting a low of 4531. We have witnessed a lot of FII inflows in the last few days. I dont have any clear idea about why the inflows were higher or if it will continue to be like that. I'm not a fundamental analyst to review these things. The picture I have is the chart of our market. The chart says that its not the time to invest. You may not have to sell, but surely, this is not the time to buy. We have been in a DOWN-TREND for the last one year. From January 2011, we have been bouncing back from the downward sloping Trendline. The other important resistance for the market was its 200-day SMA. The markets couldn't break or close above the 200-day SMA in the last two prominent swings. But what is happening now? The markets have broken the 200-day SMA yesterday in the morning itself. Its a good sign. But what is more significant here are the following things. Check them out:

1. The market has closed JUST below the 200-day SMA though it had broken the levels in the morning itself.

2. The indicators are showing huge overbought situation.

3. The index of the market volatility and fear, INDIA VIX, has started moving up after hitting the support (20.80-20.90 is the support). If it is so, India Vix will be making a double bottom.

4. The market has formed a HANGING MAN candle at the top yesterday. Though you cant term this candle completely bearish, it will prove to be bearish if the candle formed on Monday supports it (a red/black candle or a lower close than Friday).

5. The other popular index, SENSEX has not even broken the 200-day EMA.

6. Major contributor of this Up-move, the banks have shown tiredness yesterday after a long time. The BankNifty has bounced back from around 9950(just near the 200-day SMA) levels as expected.

7. Another leader of this rally has been Reliance. But reliance may not be moving further as its result was a lackluster one and the buyback price wont exceed 870. So if the stock moves up by another 3 or 4% from here, you could see profit booking. (I dont expect the stock to cross 850-860 levels easily)

8. Global Indices have hit their expected targets and are witnessing profit booking. The U.S. Markets have seen the indices going down for the second consecutive day. 5 to 6% correction looks very much possible.

9. The global scenario is not at all improving. In fact, it has gone worse from a few weeks ago. It is almost certain that Greece will default in March when their bonds mature. Portugal is said to have more debt than Greece. Though they were able to sell the bonds, the situation of both Italy and Spain are not different from Greece or Portugal.

10. The exuberance generated by the RBI move has already been factored in.

11. The analysts are expecting significant downgrades in the earnings as far as the next 2 quarters are concerned.

12. Above all, more and more people are getting optimistic about the markets (not much about the economy). Even those people who were ardent supporters of a correction are a bit skeptical now because of this Up-move (this is the biggest swing in percentage terms).

Having said all these negative things consider the following things as well.

Is it not possible for the market to go up from here? If the liquidity is maintained, then is it not possible for the markets to break the long-term resistances? If the market gives positive returns over a LONG period, can we invest the money now?

It is possible that the market might go up from here. If the liquidity is maintained, if more and more inflow is there, then market will maintain momentum no matter how overbought we are. However, as per the current trend, there is every chance of the market going down from here. Suppose if the market breaks 5300-5350 levels, then there will be confirmation that the trend which started from January 2011 is over, at least for the time being. Then why should one(long term or short term investor) risk his/her money now? Isn't it wise to wait for the breakout and then put the money?

For people looking to enter the markets, my suggestion is to wait for a bit more. Wait for the markets to breakout. The levels are not very far from here. Suppose you have invested now and then the markets resuming the correction then you'll be stuck with ur positions. However, if you wait for the markets to break free and then invest, then you will be losing just another 100 points. But by doing so, you are protecting your investment. Think twice, before putting your hard-earned money somewhere. As far as SHORTING is concerned, its up to you to decide if you want short the market, to hold onto your SHORTs or even to get out.

!!!!!Many of life's failures are people who did not realize how close they were to success when they gave up - Thomas Alva Edison!!!!!!

Note: This is just my opinion. I just wanted you to consider all these things before making any investment decision. Please make sure that you yourself have analyzed both fundamental and technical factors before coming to any conclusion.

Regards,

Sam