iCharts Discussions

ragarwal · Yellow Belt Joined: 16 Nov 2008 Posts: 582

thnx sam fr ur genuine advice.
warm regds rashmi
btw i wanted to know if u could answer my query on silver i hv a short in it,wats d prognosis going forward,plz c it if its not too cumbersome

rk_a2003 · Black Belt Joined: 21 Jan 2010 Posts: 2734

ragarwal · Yellow Belt Joined: 16 Nov 2008 Posts: 582

55600,rk

rk_a2003 · Black Belt Joined: 21 Jan 2010 Posts: 2734

Rashmi

The long term view on silver is extremely Bullish due to enormous paper supply from US and Europe.Having said that the short term need not be necessarily so.

Giving extracts of an analyst “George Albert” for your reference. It might be useful for you in your trade. And also posting the chart in US $ .You may convert it in to Indian Rupees.

“The price of the white metal is nearing a previous turning point between $35 and $36, as shown by the white lines on the chart. Silver closed on Friday, 27 January, at $33.91 and it would be prudent for traders who are long on the white metal to book profits on a part of their positions. We would exit all our silver positions at the $35 level, as there is a high likelihood that prices will fall from that level. Aggressive traders can sell the white metal short anywhere between $35 and $36.

There is also the indicator, the Commodity Channel Index (CCI), which is showing weakness in the uptrend. Notice that while prices are going up the CCI is falling. This shows that the trend is weakening. However, prices can continue to rise for some time while the CCI continues to drop.

For people using the indicator, they’d short silver once the CCI falls below 100. It’s right now at 135. However, the best time to short is when the white metal is between $35 and $36 and the CCI falls below 100. However, if silver closes above $36, we’d give up our bearish bias.”

ragarwal · Yellow Belt Joined: 16 Nov 2008 Posts: 582

thnx rk fr d concern will keep a watch over it,but im thinking of getting out tom morning.

psalm · Black Belt Joined: 12 Nov 2011 Posts: 5368

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

Gold and silver should start going up from Feb 7.

psalm · Black Belt Joined: 12 Nov 2011 Posts: 5368

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

I feel that markets (equity and commodities) will be volatile from 30th to 2nd. Then, equity markets should go up from 3rd feb to 7th (at the most 10th) and hence I feel gold and silver should go in opposite direction.

This is what I feel and I could be wrong. But, still, rashmi should keep a SL and carry her trade for a few days instead of panicking. If you can give her a suitable SL, nothing like it.

rk_a2003 · Black Belt Joined: 21 Jan 2010 Posts: 2734

Vinay
My general observation is most of the times your predictions are right. I could be wrong also Wink

.

What is your own assessment on it in % terms? Which tools are you using for arriving conclusions?.

ragarwal · Yellow Belt Joined: 16 Nov 2008 Posts: 582

Thnx all ,Vinay,Rk and Sam fr taking up my problem so genuinely.

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

RK, to be serious, my own experience over the years is that sometimes I am deadly accurate and sometimes exactly opposite. The latter only tells me that I read the situation completely wrongly. I prefer my prediction going totally opposite rather than just wrong, which is fortunately rare and I happy for that. But then giving % success ratio becomes difficult.

Tools? Well, I saw on charts on friday what sam and others have posted today and yesterday. But I am not good at all in TA, FA and SA. So, I started lately to concentrate on the common factor in them and that is "A". Smile

I have been using it for many years (and hence my first statement above)but I wasn't in the market on regular basis then, being very busy with my profession. You will recall what I had posted about market (i think on one of veerappan's as well as on other threads and on which ajay had also commented) in end Dec. (You and sam had said that you don't believe in "A") On similar basis, I feel we may have trouble from 7th (or 9th) Feb. This helps in making me cautious no matter what TA says because sudden events can not be foretold by TA. Even FA can only sound caution based on scheduled events. SA is a diferent ball game altogether.

Now I wait to see whether I am right.

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

We have had a 700 points rise so far. The last time we had it was when nifty went to 5400. So expect significant resistance here. Best to cover your long position. I am not suggesting positional shorts though as yet.

psalm · Black Belt Joined: 12 Nov 2011 Posts: 5368

psalm · Black Belt Joined: 12 Nov 2011 Posts: 5368

Hi All,

The market is poised to open down. The support for the day exists in the range 5130-5140 and the resistance will be in the range 5200-5210. Break of the upper band will push the market towards 5235 levels while a break of lower bands will push it down towards 5080 levels. Be safe always. Trade with stoplosses. Happy Trading!!!!

Regards,

Sam