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sachin79 White Belt
Joined: 07 May 2011 Posts: 55
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Post: #4336 Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2012 3:15 pm Post subject: |
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mkt stil gud for 250 pts more..trap wil b laid arnd 5450..gap to filled arnd 5370 made in early april.. |
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psalm Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011 Posts: 5368
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Post: #4337 Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2012 3:17 pm Post subject: |
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sachin79 wrote: | mkt stil gud for 250 pts more..trap wil b laid arnd 5450..gap to filled arnd 5370 made in early april.. |
Let's wait and see, Sachin.....it wont take long to find out...I feel..... |
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rohit44 White Belt
Joined: 05 Jan 2010 Posts: 279
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Post: #4338 Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2012 3:23 pm Post subject: |
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psalm wrote: | rohit44 wrote: | Sam dear, nothing technical but dont you think olympic fever started... ftse again above 5600, dax running dow abv 13k and euro too recovered from 1.20xxx and sustaining well abv 1.22... i am a big bear with big tgts but i am a bit cautious now taking longs.. what say?? precious comments plz... |
Anything is possible, Rohit.....The things you are talking about is true...By the way, this 5200 levels were expected...5260-270 look probable now... .....The nifty positions I have are of average around 5215 or so....so, if the market breaks above 5216 level, forget about profits, I'll be making Losses.....I know that....but still I'm holding them cos, I believe that the market is gonna go down.........but it doesn't mean that the market will behave as per my expectation or analysis.... .....so, fingers crossed...will see in a day or two.....where we're heading.... |
k thks Sam... 5164.2-5205 gap filled... next at 5267.15-5306 will it...lets see.. gud learning experience with u guys.. |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #4339 Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2012 3:25 pm Post subject: |
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5100PE SL 44 target 70 |
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apka Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137
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Post: #4340 Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2012 3:37 pm Post subject: |
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vinay28 wrote: | itching to short but afraid of subbu |
darr ke aagey jeet hain aur itching ka illaz b-tex hain |
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psalm Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011 Posts: 5368
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Post: #4341 Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2012 3:39 pm Post subject: |
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apka wrote: | vinay28 wrote: | itching to short but afraid of subbu |
darr ke aagey jeet hain aur itching ka illaz b-tex hain |
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pkholla Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2010 Posts: 2890
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Post: #4342 Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2012 3:54 pm Post subject: |
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vinay28 wrote: | itching to short but afraid of subbu |
Vinay: Place your money fearlessly, there is policy paralysis in Delhi and Mint Rd, Bombay
Prakash Holla
Last edited by pkholla on Mon Jul 30, 2012 7:08 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #4343 Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2012 7:01 pm Post subject: |
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bought a little PE |
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psalm Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011 Posts: 5368
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Post: #4344 Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2012 7:22 pm Post subject: |
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vinay28 wrote: | bought a little PE |
Don't exit those PUTs, whatever happens before the policy announcement....Vinay.....just hold them..if needed buy more PUTs....if the policy announcement doesn't disappoint the markets ( ), then exit them....otherwise, keep them till August 30th (August expiry).... |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #4345 Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2012 7:30 pm Post subject: |
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yes sam, that's a MTC. |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #4346 Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2012 8:09 pm Post subject: |
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problem is today's strong candle filling up gap created on 23/7. Also, it has breached the upper TL from 10/7 |
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psalm Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011 Posts: 5368
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Post: #4347 Posted: Tue Jul 31, 2012 9:28 am Post subject: Market Outlook |
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Hi All,
Another important trading session for the market has commenced. Current rate is around 5209 and the high made as of now is around 5218. Today is the day when RBI will announce its credit policy and also the last trading in July (July Monthly Candle close). Though most of the people this time around don't expect any rate cut from the RBI, there are a minority who are still expecting a cut of 25bps. Having said that, SBI chairman has mentioned about a possible 50bps cut. So, overall its a confusing scenario for a retail investor or trader. However, I have a feeling that the move we've had over the last 2 days was to trap the bulls and that the move will end with some selling today. This is the hypothesis I want to follow for the day. However, if there is some positve announcement from the RBI, then there is good chance of this market going UP. In that case, there is chance of it breaking the previous high of 5350 levels and then testing 5450-5500 levels. However, if there is disappointment there is chance of another August 2011 in the making. I would like you to check the historic data for the dates 22 July 2011, 25th July 2011 and then 26th July 2011. I see lot of similarities. 22nd and 25th were very much like the last 2 days, 2 green candles after a good correction. The interesting candle happened on 26th July. On that day, the market went up above the previous day's high and then started correcting. The market witnessed almost a 100 point correction that day. Above all, the market continues to be in that correction phase for exactly a month. I mean the market started correcting from 26th July 2011 to 26th August 2011. I see a lot of similarities or say correlation in those moves (with last 2 days moves). So, please be cautious today. Be safe first. Its better "not to lose money" than "not making profits".
NOTE: Coincidently, 26th July 2011 was an RBI policy day.
Regards,
SAM |
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pkholla Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2010 Posts: 2890
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Post: #4348 Posted: Tue Jul 31, 2012 9:33 am Post subject: |
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Sam: excellent analysis! In other words, imitate Gavaskar: dont lose your wicket, runs will come. Prakash Holla |
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saumya12 Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Dec 2011 Posts: 1509
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Post: #4349 Posted: Tue Jul 31, 2012 9:43 am Post subject: |
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A superb analysis of the situation, SAM.
A possibility, even after a 25 bps cut, after sometime (today itself) the market may not find it sufficient and go for a correction.
Let us watch the situation. |
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anand1234 Yellow Belt
Joined: 17 Jul 2010 Posts: 830
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Post: #4350 Posted: Tue Jul 31, 2012 9:44 am Post subject: |
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anand1234 wrote: | hi.....sam
cac....dax......fitse....dow fut........all r almost up by 2%........then new up movement will follow from tomorrow onwords..........5043....will b bottom for time being??.........(rbi police on 31/7/12)...pls suggest
thx
anand |
hi...........sam
remember wt I told on 27/7/12.........nf may done the bottom.....5043...........next upmove started......got 160 pts 5210.........today is rbi policy.........mkt expectation is not changing any policy.......so if nothing change will happen then may not c much downfall from here......but if any cut abt 25 or 50 bps ...then we may c sharp rally towards 5300...........
CAUTION: But dont trade any infra or bank stock today.......because if dont changing any policy then we may c sharp fall in those sector .......if any cuts then sharp rally also b seen......just vise versa..........better to avoide those sector for the day..
JUST MY OBSERVATION...........ur comments is needed.....
thx
anand |
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