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Nifty View |
psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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Post: #4381  Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2012 8:52 am Post subject: Re: nifty view |
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| pkveenu wrote: | hi sam
me too always wish to read your regular views about nifty as well as individual stocks
do post it regularily even market is in that way or not
your way is always a technical one and that too keeping all other events in mind
really appreciable
keep it up
regards
pkveenu |
PKVEENU,
I'll try to post my views regularly. But all people should understand here that I'm not suggesting or recommending a trading position according to my analysis or hypothesis. I just post here what my opinion is. I always make sure that, I post my views on the market on important days. At times, I try to add some interesting facts about the market; that too just for your knowledge. I really request you to continue trading or investing as per your own vision and analysis. However, I just want to have a different look at the market. I hope my opinions give you a different view whether helpful or not. There is nothing like, "I got it right and you got it wrong" feeling. All I want here is to provide an opinion which might prompt the traders to have a different look at their investment or trading decision.
NOTE: If you believe that my opinion here affects your trading in a negative way, please stay away from my thread. Its a humble request.
Regards,
SAM |
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psalm
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Joined: 12 Nov 2011
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| Post: #4382 Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2012 9:02 am Post subject: |
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| rk_a2003 wrote: | | psalm wrote: | | rk_a2003 wrote: | | psalm wrote: | | apka wrote: | | getting confused now, SBIN looking like will goto 2090. |
Very much possible, Apka....I also believe that 2090 levels should be the next major resistance for the stock......one more thing is that L&T is looking good for a target of around 1415-1420 levels....that's why I have a feeling that there could be a bit more upside left....  ....initiating a position here looks difficult....and confusing as well...but for me..well, I consider this as an opportunity for those to exit the LONGs or an opportunity to initiate some SHORTs....most of the people dont believe in that view....so, let's see...  |
The ECB meet is happening amidst high expectation.Meeting high expectations is a tough task.The EU markets are inching up with the same expectations and so the world markets including Indian market.What wil happen if the meet under delivers?!
Sam will be the best person to tell that. |
Sam has given his verdict a few weeks back itself.....  ....By the way, expectations are for the smaller players like you and me, RK......"Key players" are already aware of what the outcome could be from that meeting, I believe..... and they might have already initiated positions (LONG or SHORT) as per that.....The best way is to follow them...I mean following the smart money......looking at the way the charts are forming, I have a feeling that the markets are gonna go down.....As per that theory, lot of negatives have to happen.....it will come one by one, I believe.... the first one in that series might come tonight.....there is one event scheduled for tomorrow and then another one on Thursday as well....."FROM MY READING OF THE CHARTS", I expect negatives to come from those meetings.....to be precise, I give it a high probability....so, i have positioned as per that in this market......I expect positive return from these trade....but at some point if I feel that I got it wrong, I'll close my positions with losses...and then look for another opportunity....LONG or SHORT...
NOTE: I GOT IT WRONG WITH NIFTY IN THE LAST FEW TIMES ....that's why even when giving opinions, I include upper (higher) targets once the levels are broken (read it as "trying my best to be unbiased")....  ....By the way, I'm very much aware that the market may have other plans...so, fingers crossed... |
Sam,
Though big players know the major events in advance it cannot be applied everywhere.
EU is not a single unit. It has multiple nations with diversified interests. What is good for Germany cannot be same for UK and so on….
Due to this conflict of interests no one knew the outcome of such meetings exactly, even institutes. In fact the heads too may not have a clear idea of the outcome till negotiations are over.
In general they may have an idea about the outcome but the exact course will be known only after the meeting, that’s where the disappointments or fulfillments may occur even to institutes. |
I understand that nothing in this universe is certain, except the velocity of light, RK.... (not sure if the god particle has anything to do with that theory).  By the way, don't you think its better to follow the smart money, unless you are capable forming an opinion on the fundamentals on your own. I know my limitations regarding fundamental analysis and is the case with MOST of the traders. I mean IT IS DIFFICULT to analyze the fundamentals and come to a conclusion. Sometimes, it is impossible unless you have hell lot of data or analysis. Please note that I'm not talking about a simple P/E ratio or Book Value. I'm talking about Macro economical issues or micro economical issues affected by geo politics. I wish, i could just analyze a to z of all the companies and trade accordingly. Unfortunately, I dont have that much resources or secret sources (Read it as insider info) as the big players have. The important thing here is that the big players know the events as well as their PROBABLE outcome in advance most of the times. For example, remember the events that took place just before the last European Union Meeting. Merkel was saying without any doubt that she'll not allow such a deal to happen "IN HER LIFE TIME" ("there won't be a full shared debt liability in Europe "as long as I live"). However, many analysts were saying that Merkel will have to give in to the popular demands of countries such as Italy and Spain. The analysts had their own reasons support their claim. The rest is history. After making such an announcement, Merkel gave into the pressure and the rest is history.
In that situation, I dont know how many of us can predict such a scenario with reasonable confidence. Apka was saying about the divergence that was happening in the charts of Euro and European markets prior to that event. It was an indication for him that something is about to change. That means that before the outcome of that meeting came, some people were changing their direction or bias in the market. His (APKA) findings did work. The market didn't look back for a day or two from there. So, instead of waiting for the outcome of the meeting, if someone was following the "smart money" he/she would have made good money. There will definitely be a question, "Who made more money in this situation?". The answer is "those people who were speculating on the outcome". There is no doubt about that. But apka made the best out the resources available to him. Me or most of the traders are not better than Apka. For us, following the smart money seems a sensible solution. By the way, that is the easiest solution available and at times, the most effective one too.
NOTE: By "following the smart money" I mean that looking at the chart for speculating the direction and targets.
Regards,
SAM |
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psalm
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Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #4383 Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2012 10:49 am Post subject: |
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| Market is currently trading around 5220 levels....the low made as of now is around 5215....the market has immediate support in the range 5203-5196.....a break below this range might affect the sentiments...but since, I feel that its a key level...it should hold for the time being...however, if broken, it will definitely affect the sentiments.....and might invite further sellers....I feel...On the upside, 5258 and 5277 are the levels to watch.....I believe....anyway, let's see if there is any breach of any of these levels.... |
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rk_a2003
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Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #4384 Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2012 10:50 am Post subject: |
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Sam,
There is nothing much to differ with what you wrote. May be you and me are saying same thing in different perspectives.
But a small difference here, you and me may not be able to follow smart money due to a simple reason that we don’t have such deep pockets and smart money will have strategies drawn out for a reasonably long periods. They don't let you read so easily their mind and even we read them, we don't have such resources as an individual to follow it.
This is a great misconception among traders. That’s entirely a different topic; we may discuss it in a separate thread. |
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psalm
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Posts: 5368
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| Post: #4385 Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2012 11:00 am Post subject: |
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| rk_a2003 wrote: | Sam,
There is nothing much to differ with what you wrote. May be you and me are saying same thing in different perspectives.
But a small difference here, you and me may not be able to follow smart money due to a simple reason that we don’t have such deep pockets and smart money will have strategies drawn out for a reasonably long periods. [color=red]They don't let you read so easily their mind and even we read them, we don't have such resources as an individual to follow it.
[color=red]This is a great misconception among traders. That’s entirely a different topic; we may discuss it in a separate thread. |
I agree that its difficult to read them.....that's why most of the traders are not so successful in making money on a net basis.....but I dont agree with the notion that its impossible.......technical analysis does exactly that......where the huge betting is happening.....where the high probability of going LONG...where there is high probability of going SHORT....as I said earlier, its not certain at all.....but by improving the probability of the success ratio(50-50 normally) and then by money management, it is not a herculean task to make money....Its not a misconception either...RK.....I dont know about others....but with my experience, I'm quite sure that its not a misconception..... |
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dine
White Belt
Joined: 11 Jul 2009
Posts: 73
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| Post: #4386 Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2012 11:28 am Post subject: |
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| psalm wrote: |
Dinesh,
I have mentioned how I come to a conclusion regarding the stocks or indices quite a few times in this very thread. Details about that were provided more than 2 times in this very thread. Again, let me tell you that I'm a pivot trader, a trader who make use of level from a pool of pivots after identifying some trend.
NOTE: Will try to post charts as well if found useful.
Regards,
SAM |
Mr Sam,
Thanks for the info. Let me dig out this thread and find how you arrive at the long term targets. And keep up the good work. You are really doing a nice job.
Thanks |
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psalm
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Posts: 5368
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| Post: #4387 Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2012 11:50 am Post subject: |
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| dine wrote: | | psalm wrote: |
Dinesh,
I have mentioned how I come to a conclusion regarding the stocks or indices quite a few times in this very thread. Details about that were provided more than 2 times in this very thread. Again, let me tell you that I'm a pivot trader, a trader who make use of level from a pool of pivots after identifying some trend.
NOTE: Will try to post charts as well if found useful.
Regards,
SAM |
Mr Sam,
Thanks for the info. Let me dig out this thread and find how you arrive at the long term targets. And keep up the good work. You are really doing a nice job.
Thanks |
Dinesh,
Date of that post is 5th June, 2012....
Regards,
SAM |
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dine
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Posts: 73
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| Post: #4388 Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2012 11:58 am Post subject: |
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| Thanks a lot Sam. |
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psalm
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Posts: 5368
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| Post: #4389 Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2012 3:23 pm Post subject: |
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| Since a Big event is about to happen today, its better to take some precaution I feel...That means if you're SHORT overall in the market, then buying some CALLs or if you've lot of LONG position, then buying some PUTs might help....may be nothing will happen...but again, being safe is the best option, I feel... |
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psalm
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| Post: #4390 Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2012 6:10 pm Post subject: |
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| psalm wrote: | | Since a Big event is about to happen today, its better to take some precaution I feel...That means if you're SHORT overall in the market, then buying some CALLs or if you've lot of LONG position, then buying some PUTs might help....may be nothing will happen...but again, being safe is the best option, I feel... |
As per the current situation, global markets look disappointed by the hugely anticipated events.....so, the end of current pullback????....wait and watch..... |
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psalm
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Posts: 5368
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| Post: #4391 Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2012 6:21 pm Post subject: |
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| ITALIAN and SPANISH bond yields are going up again.... |
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apka
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Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #4392 Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2012 6:23 pm Post subject: |
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| ecb dissappoints it seems. rates unchanged. |
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psalm
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Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #4393 Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2012 6:24 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | ecb dissappoints it seems. rates unchanged. |
Nothing is there in Draghi speech...... ....as somebody pointed out....dud bazooka.... |
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rk_a2003
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Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #4394 Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2012 6:47 pm Post subject: |
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“The ECB meet is happening amidst high expectation.Meeting high expectations is a tough task.The EU markets are inching up with the same expectations and so the world markets including Indian market.What wil happen if the meet under delivers?!”
**************************************************************
Though big players know the major events in advance it cannot be applied everywhere.
EU is not a single unit. It has multiple nations with diversified interests. What is good for Germany cannot be same for UK and so on….
Due to this conflict of interests no one knew the outcome of such meetings exactly, even institutes. In fact the heads too may not have a clear idea of the outcome till negotiations are over.
In general they may have an idea about the outcome but the exact course will be known only after the meeting, that’s where the disappointments or fulfillments may occur even to institutes.
**************************************************************
Re read the above text which was posted well in advance.Now relate to the Global Markets movement. This is what I was saying.
Last edited by rk_a2003 on Thu Aug 02, 2012 6:48 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #4395 Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2012 6:48 pm Post subject: |
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| psalm wrote: | | apka wrote: | | ecb dissappoints it seems. rates unchanged. |
Nothing is there in Draghi speech...... ....as somebody pointed out....dud bazooka.... |
it was no less than the pranab incident, draghi announced we will do everything we can to save and the announcement comes no change... urgh  |
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