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SP50
Brown Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2010
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Post: #4636  Posted: Thu Aug 16, 2012 10:44 am Post subject: |
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Samji with last few days to go for expiry in case no QE is declared by EURO or FED there is always a chance that nifty to trace back atleast 50% back to 5200 range at expiry. I somehow feel we will consolidate with positive basis upto maybe 5450 max and it will be good to short till that level.
I may go wrong and lose out but at this point if we reverse our shorts to go long it may turn out to be trap.
Please suggest. |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #4637 Posted: Thu Aug 16, 2012 11:01 am Post subject: |
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| taxmann50 wrote: | Samji with last few days to go for expiry in case no QE is declared by EURO or FED there is always a chance that nifty to trace back atleast 50% back to 5200 range at expiry. I somehow feel we will consolidate with positive basis upto maybe 5450 max and it will be good to short till that level.
I may go wrong and lose out but at this point if we reverse our shorts to go long it may turn out to be trap.
Please suggest. |
I WONT suggest going LONG at this point of time, Taxmann....By the way, I was not suggesting going LONG for the last few weeks as well....But most of the people gone LONG in the market and made money. But if you look at the global scenario, almost all the markets are going up when the global GDP is about to shrink...why?....could be contrarian buying....it could be because of the anticipation of the QE (liquidity)...or may be because of the anticipation of any economic recovery ....Talking about technicals, the markets have not given any SELL signals...but they're about to give some.....SHANGHAI markets have again gone back to the SELL mode from yesterday onwards....Hang Seng is showing negative divergence...Some of the markets across the globe have reached their technical targets...so, these are all suggesting imminent down moves or a Breakout on the upside...BUT, whatever be the situation, if liquidity is there all negatives will be discounted.....Having said that if you look at the graph of the Effects the QEs have have with the Equity Markets, its going down....I mean QE2 didn't have as impact as the QE1...and now, even if QE3 is announced, the effect will be pretty much lesser than the QE2....I'm not ruling out the possibility of the market going up significant from here, but the chances not that great....
NOTE: Experts are not expecting any miracle from the Jackson Hole meet this time, though even Draghi is expected to talk on Sep 1. Anyway, let's wait and see... 
Regards,
SAM |
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sachin79
White Belt
Joined: 07 May 2011
Posts: 55
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| Post: #4638 Posted: Thu Aug 16, 2012 11:10 am Post subject: |
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| i agree with sam nw..since 5100 i was bullish til 5450..bt i wnt advocate long nw..stat building shrts coz as per option buildup mkt looks extremely bullish..so time to play contrarian..n even as per my mirror image 2011 theory.. |
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rohit44
White Belt
Joined: 05 Jan 2010
Posts: 279
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| Post: #4639 Posted: Thu Aug 16, 2012 11:18 am Post subject: |
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will CAG report show us 5300NS by tomorrow..  aaj to loksabha sthagit for tomorrow |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #4640 Posted: Thu Aug 16, 2012 11:29 am Post subject: |
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As per one method, NIKKEI has given a breakout on the upside today....Though confirmation is needed, that market is showing promise on the upside....what I'm suggesting is that the markets are giving mixed signals.....For example, China giving SELL signals and Japan giving Bullish signals....so, its anybody's guess at this point of time.....  |
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rohit44
White Belt
Joined: 05 Jan 2010
Posts: 279
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| Post: #4641 Posted: Thu Aug 16, 2012 11:43 am Post subject: |
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| rohit44 wrote: | | will CAG report show us 5300NS by tomorrow.. aaj to loksabha sthagit for tomorrow |
inr about to touch 56 again.. |
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sachin79
White Belt
Joined: 07 May 2011
Posts: 55
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| Post: #4642 Posted: Thu Aug 16, 2012 11:46 am Post subject: |
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| in aday or two..all mkts wil give a sell signal..if v look at daily chart of nifty v hav formed M pattern.. |
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sachin79
White Belt
Joined: 07 May 2011
Posts: 55
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| Post: #4643 Posted: Thu Aug 16, 2012 11:56 am Post subject: |
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| looks like reliance alone wil power nifty til 5450-5470 range.. |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #4644 Posted: Thu Aug 16, 2012 12:02 pm Post subject: |
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| sachin79 wrote: | | looks like reliance alone wil power nifty til 5450-5470 range.. |
Let it first break above 814-817 range convincingly......by the way, I had reminded on the RBI policy date, a few days back, of the 26th July 2011 effect (as that was a policy day as well).... nothing has happened on that day...but how about 26 July 2011 happening today....  ......hahaha.....just kidding......anyway, that's the only thing I could do now (day dreaming) when sitting with a hell lot of short positions..... |
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jjm
White Belt
Joined: 17 Mar 2010
Posts: 411
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| Post: #4645 Posted: Thu Aug 16, 2012 12:09 pm Post subject: Nifty Trend |
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Dear All,
This is my first post in this thread...
Be informed that when ever nifty trades above 60% of breadth form in current series most of the time it closes series @ the high of breadth or new high vice versa for when it closes below 60% of breadth..
On an average there are 20 -21 working days in a expiry...So on 14 the day( it has to be 60 % of working day, in case we have 16 working days then on 10th day fr last expiry) fr last expiry which was on 26th july; if it trades above 60% then expiry will be @ high or new high
E.G. last expiry was on 26th july ..on 27th July low was 5077.5..till today High is 5390...so breadth is 313..60% of this is 187.80...hence 5077.5 + 187.80 = 5264.
Today's close above this spot level expiry will be always @ high.
Mind it this is not a thumb rule, but you can always keep this 60% fig noted on your screen plan your trades l
Happy Independence day to the forum writer and all followers
Regards,
JJM |
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pkholla
Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2010
Posts: 2890
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| Post: #4646 Posted: Thu Aug 16, 2012 12:10 pm Post subject: |
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| Sam: allow me to advise u not to (try to) buck the market with your shorts OR u may end up losing yr clothing shorts!! Was it rk2003 who posted that this bull phase was liquidity driven? Suppose u face a move like earlier 4600-5600 which happened in double quick time, then what happens to our Sam's positions? All Bloomberg indices nicely in black for today. Rgds, Prakash Holla |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #4647 Posted: Thu Aug 16, 2012 12:13 pm Post subject: |
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| pkholla wrote: | | Sam: allow me to advise u not to (try to) buck the market with your shorts OR u may end up losing yr clothing shorts!! Was it rk2003 who posted that this bull phase was liquidity driven? Suppose u face a move like earlier 4600-5600 which happened in double quick time, then what happens to our Sam's positions? All Bloomberg indices nicely in black for today. Rgds, Prakash Holla |
...I understand, Prakash....thanks.... |
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sachin79
White Belt
Joined: 07 May 2011
Posts: 55
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| Post: #4648 Posted: Thu Aug 16, 2012 12:28 pm Post subject: |
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| reliance moving bt nifty unable to..nifty showing signs of fatigue.. |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #4649 Posted: Thu Aug 16, 2012 12:31 pm Post subject: Re: Nifty Trend |
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| jjm wrote: | Dear All,
This is my first post in this thread...
Be informed that when ever nifty trades above 60% of breadth form in current series most of the time it closes series @ the high of breadth or new high vice versa for when it closes below 60% of breadth..
On an average there are 20 -21 working days in a expiry...So on 14 the day( it has to be 60 % of working day, in case we have 16 working days then on 10th day fr last expiry) fr last expiry which was on 26th july; if it trades above 60% then expiry will be @ high or new high
E.G. last expiry was on 26th july ..on 27th July low was 5077.5..till today High is 5390...so breadth is 313..60% of this is 187.80...hence 5077.5 + 187.80 = 5264.
Today's close above this spot level expiry will be always @ high.
Mind it this is not a thumb rule, but you can always keep this 60% fig noted on your screen plan your trades l
Happy Independence day to the forum writer and all followers
Regards,
JJM |
Thanks, JJM.....thanks a lot for this wonderful info.....I lack a lot of practical knowledge (experience) like this.....by the way, I have mentioned already sometimes back that I have taken trading seriously only around 3 years back. Before that it was just a time-pass for me. So, I didn't have much time to learn these aspects of the markets....I have just turned 30 recently...so, you can expect such experience I may have...But still I have been successful in making money from the market....that made me resign from the IT job I was doing and to concentrate more on trading......but this lack of formal training or experience is showing in my trading at times....I lack discipline at times (especially in mental aspects), though I make money........I'm trying to overcome things like that.....these kinda posts will definitely help me make the decisions better....thanking you again.
Regards,
SAM |
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rohit44
White Belt
Joined: 05 Jan 2010
Posts: 279
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| Post: #4650 Posted: Thu Aug 16, 2012 12:39 pm Post subject: |
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| rohit44 wrote: | | rohit44 wrote: | | will CAG report show us 5300NS by tomorrow.. aaj to loksabha sthagit for tomorrow |
inr about to touch 56 again.. |
Hang sang about to go below 20k mark.. once did psychologically weakness persists.. |
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