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saumya12
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Joined: 21 Dec 2011
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Post: #4741  Posted: Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:56 am Post subject: |
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| psalm wrote: | | saumya12 wrote: | | psalm wrote: | | taxmann50 wrote: | | Scrambling market, I feel that unless and quickly markets recovers upto 5420 spot there will be no more upside for this expiry. |
Taxmann...dont forget about liquidity.....its like inflation....difficult to contain.....  |
(' ')
Please elaborate further. |
When liquidity is there, its like a "frenzy" ....no one cares about anything value or worth....just wild buying which could be difficult to control.....that's wat I meant... |
Thanks Sam
Got the point.
The uptrend since last few days was because of liquidity only. |
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psalm
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Joined: 12 Nov 2011
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| Post: #4742 Posted: Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:04 am Post subject: |
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| rk_a2003 wrote: | | psalm wrote: | | taxmann50 wrote: | | Scrambling market, I feel that unless and quickly markets recovers upto 5420 spot there will be no more upside for this expiry. |
Taxmann...dont forget about liquidity.....its like inflation....difficult to contain..... |
In fact, it is Inflation that causes liquidity Sam! |
How about printing money, RK????.....printing money causes more liquidity and hence more inflation...its not the other way around, I feel....
but if the economy grows, inflation will be there because of the higher earnings.....but that is not creating a vacuum....thats why slight inflation in emerging markets is considered a normal phenomenon....it becomes a problem when it goes out of control.....this is caused by the excess money from the printing happening across the world.... |
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psalm
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| Post: #4743 Posted: Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:27 pm Post subject: |
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| European markets are expected to open flat to slightly negative....meanwhile Chinese market is hovering around its key support of 2088 which it had tested a few days back....the low made as of now is around 2091...A break below 2088 level means further weakness that could push the market to sub 2000 levels at the least, I believe.......Hang Seng is trading almost around its lows now.... |
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doctorshah
White Belt
Joined: 24 Jul 2011
Posts: 95
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| Post: #4744 Posted: Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:01 pm Post subject: |
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Dear rohit44
any comment on icici (nice song)  |
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rk_a2003
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Joined: 21 Jan 2010
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| Post: #4745 Posted: Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:07 pm Post subject: |
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| It appears that some force is protecting the NS 5380 level atleast for today. |
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psalm
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Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #4746 Posted: Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:18 pm Post subject: |
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| rk_a2003 wrote: | | It appears that some force is protecting the NS 5380 level atleast for today. |
True RK, we're not going down easily. At the same time, market is not showing any signs of breaking above 5400. I was expecting the market to close above 5400, though we still performed better thn our peers. One thing to consider is that, if we close somewhere around 5390 or so, "weekly candle" will be like a Shooting Star (not a perfect one). As per my method, if we don't take out yesterday's high on monday, then yesterday's high can be considered as as stoploss for the SHORT positions. So, its a tricky situation considering that we're going for a weekend.
For LONGs if holding, stoploss should be around 5370 or 5365 (SAR will also be around that level on monday, I guess). On the upside, short-term SHORT sellers can place their stoploss above 5425 or 5430. Anyway, let's see..  |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #4747 Posted: Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:21 pm Post subject: |
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| I feel the game is to close above 5380NS today, take it down to 5340 on Monday and then up. In spite of apparent bearish undercurrent, today's range is only 34 points and market is just 30 down. That shows something is amiss. |
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psalm
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Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #4748 Posted: Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:31 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | I feel the game is to close above 5380NS today, take it down to 5340 on Monday and then up. In spite of apparent bearish undercurrent, today's range is only 34 points and market is just 30 down. That shows something is amiss. |
Let's see how the game unwinds next week.... |
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psalm
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| Post: #4749 Posted: Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:35 pm Post subject: |
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| psalm wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | I feel the game is to close above 5380NS today, take it down to 5340 on Monday and then up. In spite of apparent bearish undercurrent, today's range is only 34 points and market is just 30 down. That shows something is amiss. |
Let's see how the game unwinds next week.... |
Forgot to add a thing....Its the same with Hang Seng and Nikkei too....Very very small trading range...even though they gone down considerably. |
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rk_a2003
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Joined: 21 Jan 2010
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| Post: #4750 Posted: Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:44 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | I feel the game is to close above 5380NS today, take it down to 5340 on Monday and then up. In spite of apparent bearish undercurrent, today's range is only 34 points and market is just 30 down. That shows something is amiss. |
"In spite of apparent bearish undercurrent, today's range is only 34 points and market is just 30 down. That shows something is amiss."
True Vinay! |
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psalm
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Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #4751 Posted: Mon Aug 27, 2012 10:48 am Post subject: |
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Markets are trading around 5385 now. The high made as of now is around 5400 (same as yesterday). As per the current situation, Nifty is finding it difficult to break above 5400. If broken, there is chance of it testing 5419-5425 range. I expect that range to give reasonable resistance to the market. If the market is able to break above 5420-5425 range, there is chance of testing the recent highs around 5450 or even 5470 levels. On the downside, index has reasonable support around 5370 levels which is around friday's lows. A break below 5370 levels will show weakness and could push the market to 5355 and 5330 levels.
In the morning, there were good news for Korean Markets, as Moody's Upgrades Korea to AA3; Outlook Stable. While, HSBC has downgraded China GDP forecast to 8.0% from 8.4% and 2013 forecast to 8.5% from 8.8%. Chinese markets are down and are trading below key levels of 2088 levels and are trading almost at the lows of the day while I'm writing this. Its not a rosy picture from there. Now pullbacks, if any, up to 2140-2150 will be sold into, I feel. Nikkei , Hang Seng and S&P ASX 200 are also showing weakness, though there are no major sell signals.
NOTE: India VIX has made a new low this morning around 14.5. Experts are of the opinion that the lower VIX or implied volatility could be caused by complacency or lack of consensus. The phenominen of VIX or Implied Volatility going down to much much lower levels than their historical averages is not restricted to India. This has been happening all over the world. For example, I have posted a few days ago that CBOE VIX has hit a 5-year low. Normally, when volatility is low, it is considered bullish. The contrarian view is that when the volatility have dropped to complacent levels, those events coincided with peaks in the equity market. This occurred in October 2007, May 2008, April 2010, during the December 2010 to July 2011 period, and in April 2012. So, be a careful though this theory doesn't always prove to be correct. |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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| Post: #4752 Posted: Mon Aug 27, 2012 10:58 am Post subject: |
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sam, u r right. But the mostly likely -ve news about India seems to be becoming +ve and that is monsoon wiped out more than 10% deficit in last one week alone and it's raining all over the country now. What's more all -ve news is being discounted.
By the way oct 07 and may 08 were not peak? |
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pkholla
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Joined: 04 Nov 2010
Posts: 2890
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| Post: #4753 Posted: Mon Aug 27, 2012 11:08 am Post subject: |
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vinay: u r right about monsoon.
another thing, horror stories in bloomberg etc about worldwide grain crises due to heat wave in US and drought in india. my letter about super bumper India crop last year and no room to store bought grain so less crop this year may be a blessing in disguise (stocks will not shoot up again, less subsidy paid out) IS NOT BEING POSTED. my guess is they (US traders) want to manipulate grain market and make millions |
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psalm
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Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #4754 Posted: Mon Aug 27, 2012 11:16 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | sam, u r right. But the mostly likely -ve news about India seems to be becoming +ve and that is monsoon wiped out more than 10% deficit in last one week alone and it's raining all over the country now. What's more all -ve news is being discounted.
By the way oct 07 and may 08 were not peak? |
Vinay, the period I have mentioned are with respect to the U.S markets.....DOW topped out in OCT 2007....and then made a small peak in may 2008....check them out... |
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psalm
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Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #4755 Posted: Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:28 pm Post subject: |
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| Europe is expected to open Flat to slightly negative..... |
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