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Nifty View
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rk_a2003
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Joined: 21 Jan 2010
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Post: #4861   PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Global markets are correcting now. The only market that closed positive today is Indian. The magic of F&O closing .The great gambling in favor of biggie’s .Small fishes were swallowed off.

Tomorrow will be another day, likely to be a gap down opening.
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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Post: #4862   PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

likely rk but I feel our events are more important (since tmrw's jackson hole event will be a black hole I feel) e.g. gdp data, rbi policy review. Also, one reason why I felt 5300 will be crossed today was that there was a large position in 5300CE shorts and writers did not want a close above 5300 but FIIs had bought index fut heavily. Even today they bought 2300+ cr.

Having said this 5360-75NS is a good resistance. Also, tmrw being last of week must close above 5388NS otherwise we will have a red weekly candle and may have next week -ve too. And the gap at 5215 of 3rd august is not far away nor is age old zone of 5170-90. Smile

If tmrw closes below 5388, sam will happily pounce on me for his comment about last week's shooting star. 24 24
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saumya12
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Joined: 21 Dec 2011
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Post: #4863   PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks all of you friends for showing concern and suggestions.

I purchased 500, 5300CE in the morning @ 3.10 and later on added 500 more @ 2.10, so total 1000 options. My trade plan was to hold/sell till nifty fill the gap and if move any further then till 5300 and then to 5325 or so. (as most of the analyst were of the opinion that nifty can move upto 5325 or so and I indicated that too in one of my previous post).

When at around 2.25 pm, price moved down quickly from 7 to 5 in spite of nifty moving upwards, (after filling the gap) and in spite of all bullish signals (at that time a W formation was in progress and the candle was out of KUMO), I thought to sell off my holding at 5.

And LO all the hell broke, my internet connection started giving trouble (as it was waiting for that crucial moment) and so the trading platform stopped functioning. I have to ‘log off / log on’ multiple times and at around 2.50 when thing stablised, I saw a price of 50 np or so. I got panicked (though I do not get panick that easily) may be because it was my first trade in options. I squared up my holdings at 40 np.

Ek karela duje neem chadha. In panic I sold off 2000 options instead of 1000. It wasn’t too late before I realized my mistake and cover 1000 @ 50 np. I think now, what would have happened if I had realized my mistake sometime after 15 minutes or so, I would have been under 11-12000 INR or so.

I learnt a few lessons (though at a cost) that DO NOT panic under any circumstance and be in your senses so as not to commit further mistake and do not try hard to save a losing trade for few bucks (when you are losing 2000 let take chance, instead of saving few more)


apka wrote:
vinay28 wrote:
thanks rk. my average cost was 3 and sell price 13. I also bought 5200ce at 66 and sold at 113. Smile


nice, how'd you have the courage to hold it after it fell from 4 to under 0.5 that too near 3pm with an OI over 1cr!

I had bought it earlier @ 2.5 and exited @ 1 just before 3pm after seeing the sudden fall. Just saw what drama happened after it, 15 high, crappo! Laughing


Thanks Vinay for the trading note.
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apka
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Post: #4864   PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

saumya, a very good lesson learnt in options and very fast i must say!

A lot many times, options price may detoriate with time but if the levels and lows are intact, an upmove (like today) is always possible!

I sqrd off my position in 5300ce after seeing the fall from 4 -> 0.65 within 5 seconds because this is nrmlly what happens 30-40 mins before expiry. Options which are going to end up 0 value goto towards zero fast and 5300pe wasnt seeing any reduction in premium that time. A very different expiry today.
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vinay28
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Post: #4865   PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

saumya, the biggest mistake you made was square off your calls at low price. When I told you of the gamble I did mention that loss is 3 which means you don't square off. Let it go to zero. You buy correct qty depending upon how much you can afford to loose. Here the R:R was 5 theoretically.

Always remember that when you BUY options at such low value, be prepared to loose ALL.
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apka
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Post: #4866   PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2012 10:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:
saumya, the biggest mistake you made was square off your calls at low price. When I told you of the gamble I did mention that loss is 3 which means you don't square off. Let it go to zero. You buy correct qty depending upon how much you can afford to loose. Here the R:R was 5 theoretically.

Always remember that when you BUY options at such low value, be prepared to loose ALL.


i blame zerodha for that, with selling 1000qty @ 0.3 she still must have saved net rs.100. Smile
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saumya12
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Post: #4867   PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2012 10:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks Vinay
Thanks Apka
For your advice and suggestions.

Vinay I will keep your advice with me always in my memory.

I perhaps would not have squared off my position on such a low price if the trade had a continuity. Actually because of the break I lost my concentration or vision. and on seeing a price of 50 np I do not know what happened to me, I just panicked and did all the foolish things like trying to save that 400 INR.

Anyway....

Thanks again for your advice and suggestions.

vinay28 wrote:
saumya, the biggest mistake you made was square off your calls at low price. When I told you of the gamble I did mention that loss is 3 which means you don't square off. Let it go to zero. You buy correct qty depending upon how much you can afford to loose. Here the R:R was 5 theoretically.

Always remember that when you BUY options at such low value, be prepared to loose ALL.
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saumya12
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Post: #4868   PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2012 11:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

apka wrote:
i blame zerodha for that, with selling 1000qty @ 0.3 she still must have saved net rs.100. Smile

Just received ECN. I paid under 100 INR only for 2000 options completed in 3 buy and 1 sell orders (total 4 trades) as brokerage and (including) other charges. And if I would have completed in 2 trades then would have paid only 50 INR.
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vinay28
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Post: #4869   PostPosted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 7:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

saumya, see my private message
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apka
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Post: #4870   PostPosted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 8:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

saumya12 wrote:
apka wrote:
i blame zerodha for that, with selling 1000qty @ 0.3 she still must have saved net rs.100. Smile

Just received ECN. I paid under 100 INR only for 2000 options completed in 3 buy and 1 sell orders (total 4 trades) as brokerage and (including) other charges. And if I would have completed in 2 trades then would have paid only 50 INR.


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psalm
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Joined: 12 Nov 2011
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Post: #4871   PostPosted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 9:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

rk_a2003 wrote:
psalm wrote:
Anyone saw MTNL?????...I have mentioned earlier that the stock has a target of 27 in September......went above 45 today....and then crashed.....current rate is around 35.... Laughing


Is there any reason for fall or it's just an F&O game!


RK, the target is technical....but overall, I'm extremely bearish on almost all the 51 stocks which will be removed from the F&O segment.....I have mentioned last thursday that there could 10 or 15% kinda moves on the downside in those stocks regularly as we get into the fag end of september...especially operator-driven stocks....

NOTE: For MTNL, the reason given yesterday was because of a block deal.....but this is part and parcel of the game, I feel.....I mean these reasons.... Laughing ...Now, I have even lower target for that stock....29-27 is the first support...but I expect the stock to test even 22 levels in a few weeks... angel
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psalm
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Post: #4872   PostPosted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 9:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:
likely rk but I feel our events are more important (since tmrw's jackson hole event will be a black hole I feel) e.g. gdp data, rbi policy review. Also, one reason why I felt 5300 will be crossed today was that there was a large position in 5300CE shorts and writers did not want a close above 5300 but FIIs had bought index fut heavily. Even today they bought 2300+ cr.

Having said this 5360-75NS is a good resistance. Also, tmrw being last of week must close above 5388NS otherwise we will have a red weekly candle and may have next week -ve too. And the gap at 5215 of 3rd august is not far away nor is age old zone of 5170-90. Smile

If tmrw closes below 5388, sam will happily pounce on me for his comment about last week's shooting star. 24 24



I'll pounce on you from tomorrow onwards, Vinay......but if you think that its because of the uncertainty regarding the Jackson Hole event...then its not true.... vanish





24
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vinay28
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Post: #4873   PostPosted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 9:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

it makes sense to cover shorts about 5250NS
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apka
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Post: #4874   PostPosted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 10:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vinay, I would just call it Index management.

Couple of expiry back we saw INFY rising 80-100 points in last 2 mins before close with volume over 2 lakh shares, to make nifty close above a particular strike.

To achieve a closing above 5300, bulk buying was done. Much of their invested amount they must have covered by buying 5300ce and writing 5300pe.

We also closed at 30min resistence 5315, I feel 5218-5226 belt is coming.
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psalm
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Post: #4875   PostPosted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 10:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:
it makes sense to cover shorts about 5250NS


At least some kinda hedge is needed if the trading positions are carried to Monday, I feel. By the way, almost all the markets across the globe are giving SELL signals ahead of the Jackson Hole event. It could be interpreted that key players are not expecting anything significant from Bernanke and could be waiting to "SELL ON NEWS" once the news is out. Having said that, it is difficult to predict which way the market is gonna move after the event, though the bias is clearly on the downside. I use Russel 2000 index and DOW JONES TRANSPORTATION index to have an idea about the trend of the U.S markets. Transportation index has already given a SELL signal but Russel 2000 is yet to crack. Another indication of the bearishness prevailing there is that CBOE VIX is about to breakout on the upside.

NOTE: In our markets as well, VIX is the one to watch out for. A break above 17.2 could push the volatility to even 22-23 levels, I feel. Current rate is around 17.1 with high around 17.15....
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