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rk_a2003
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Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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Post: #5071  Posted: Fri Sep 14, 2012 7:30 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | chiddu will tell subbu - I have done my job now you do yours.
When flood hits you, it doesn't stop suddenly. First ecb, then QE3, then FDI in many sectors, then disinvestment, how about rate cut to crown it all? |
Is it mere coincidence? I don’t think so.
After the high inflation and diesel price hike, (Which is going to flare up inflation in the coming months) rate cut will be difficult. Market must have prepared for no rate cut.
Still by bleak chance if rate cut is there ….Bulls will be rampant. |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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| Post: #5072 Posted: Fri Sep 14, 2012 7:37 pm Post subject: |
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| bulls rampant? FIIs have already put in about 1B$ in Sept and sgxnifty is already 5662 |
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rk_a2003
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Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #5073 Posted: Fri Sep 14, 2012 7:53 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | bulls rampant? FIIs have already put in about 1B$ in Sept and sgxnifty is already 5662 |
Yes that's the phenomena .When it rises it rises continuously squeezing all the bears. Now it's 5669 ...Ha..ha.haa. |
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apka
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Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #5074 Posted: Fri Sep 14, 2012 8:00 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | bulls rampant? FIIs have already put in about 1B$ in Sept and sgxnifty is already 5662 |
People are not understanding the gravity of this. They are still thinking to short. Charts technicals have changed. |
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rakpeds
White Belt
Joined: 24 Jun 2012
Posts: 481
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| Post: #5075 Posted: Fri Sep 14, 2012 8:07 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | bulls rampant? FIIs have already put in about 1B$ in Sept and sgxnifty is already 5662 |
People are not understanding the gravity of this. They are still thinking to short. Charts technicals have changed. |
there are many gaps still open from last friday which are need to be filled....
so small risks can be taken in buying put today....
but this FDI declaration looks like preplanned...
another way to convert black money to to white by our politicians...
Manmohan: If we are going down, we will go down fighting.
Man when he had guts speak a single word before.... %^$@%#$%^ |
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apka
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Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #5076 Posted: Fri Sep 14, 2012 8:15 pm Post subject: |
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| rakpeds wrote: | | apka wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | bulls rampant? FIIs have already put in about 1B$ in Sept and sgxnifty is already 5662 |
People are not understanding the gravity of this. They are still thinking to short. Charts technicals have changed. |
there are many gaps still open from last friday which are need to be filled....
so small risks can be taken in buying put today....
but this FDI declaration looks like preplanned...
another way to convert black money to to white by our politicians...
Manmohan: If we are going down, we will go down fighting.
Man when he had guts speak a single word before.... %^$@%#$%^ |
If the buying continues upto 6000 you will forget the gaps and begin think trend has changed, by that time people would want to take some break from buying and correction may come. Im just giving example how sticking to one thought like gap theory can lead to loss. If today people bought puts thinking of gap being tested will be shocked to see SGX right now.
As I said DOW and DAX are barely away from their all time high, since the undertone has been setup, nifty is trying to do the same.
The theory of gaps would work if the the underlying buying pressure seems to exhaust. But this is not the case right now. No written rule, just my thoughts.  |
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rakpeds
White Belt
Joined: 24 Jun 2012
Posts: 481
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| Post: #5077 Posted: Fri Sep 14, 2012 8:22 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | rakpeds wrote: | | apka wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | bulls rampant? FIIs have already put in about 1B$ in Sept and sgxnifty is already 5662 |
People are not understanding the gravity of this. They are still thinking to short. Charts technicals have changed. |
there are many gaps still open from last friday which are need to be filled....
so small risks can be taken in buying put today....
but this FDI declaration looks like preplanned...
another way to convert black money to to white by our politicians...
Manmohan: If we are going down, we will go down fighting.
Man when he had guts speak a single word before.... %^$@%#$%^ |
If the buying continues upto 6000 you will forget the gaps and begin think trend has changed, by that time people would want to take some break from buying and correction may come. Im just giving example how sticking to one thought like gap theory can lead to loss. If today people bought puts thinking of gap being tested will be shocked to see SGX right now.
As I said DOW and DAX are barely away from their all time high, since the undertone has been setup, nifty is trying to do the same.
The theory of gaps would work if the the underlying buying pressure seems to exhaust. But this is not the case right now. No written rule, just my thoughts. |
yup true apka ji... today during close NF premium reduced and settlement ended in discount... there is always no chance to fight the sudden surprise.
The rule says before passing any amendment it has to be circulated 2 days in advance... while nothing like that has been done and the decision seems to be in haste to cover the rate cut decision and just corrupt politicians...
coal block allocations cancelled today ... SC asked for govt clarifications...
correct one cannot fight liquidity and no need to fight the trend.,.. So monday looks to be imp for make or brk |
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rk_a2003
Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #5078 Posted: Fri Sep 14, 2012 8:31 pm Post subject: |
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True Apka.It takes some time for the markets to come to the senses.The reality will struck hard after few quarters.
Markets are banking on financial engineering by FED,ECB for the fundamentals to change/revive,which is not going to happen.It wll not take very long time for the markets to realise this.
These actions are postponing inevitable.How long? .....let us wait and watch.
Till that time what you said is 100% right. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #5079 Posted: Fri Sep 14, 2012 8:37 pm Post subject: |
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| never fight liquidity. sell when everyone on the street says buy |
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rk_a2003
Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #5080 Posted: Fri Sep 14, 2012 9:05 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | never fight liquidity. sell when everyone on the street says buy |
I am a reluctant bull Vinay! .You know that . |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #5081 Posted: Fri Sep 14, 2012 9:33 pm Post subject: |
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| Monday onwards, market will move according to local news. How about threat of midterm elections. I feel congress is ready and willing. |
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rk_a2003
Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #5082 Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2012 11:06 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | Monday onwards, market will move according to local news. How about threat of midterm elections. I feel congress is ready and willing. |
Yes, it seems .When TMC gave ultimatum of withdrawing support for roll back of the decisions in 72 hours .The Congress ridiculed it by saying… it needs only 2 hours to withdraw support ,why 72 hours is required?. Ha...haa...haa.
Either Congress is prepared for mid elections or it might be getting support from unexpected quarters which might have been gathered by Obama administration. |
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stevenmat
White Belt
Joined: 27 Dec 2011
Posts: 478
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| Post: #5083 Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2012 11:22 am Post subject: |
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hello everyone !long time! i'm getting badly raped in office..had to go to some god forsaken places  ...anyways... i'm thinking of buying puts with mondays gap up opening...i blv that the candle stick shd touch 3 eod ema in three consecutive days..it has worked almost every time...i'm not looking for a sell off...but a small consolidation is inevitable right? |
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rk_a2003
Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #5084 Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2012 11:37 am Post subject: |
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| stevenmat wrote: | | hello everyone !long time! i'm getting badly raped in office..had to go to some god forsaken places ...anyways... i'm thinking of buying puts with mondays gap up opening...i blv that the candle stick shd touch 3 eod ema in three consecutive days..it has worked almost every time...i'm not looking for a sell off...but a small consolidation is inevitable right? |
Hi Steve,
Welcome back. Yes sell offs are a distant dream as of now.Yes corrections on intraday basis and consolidation in a small range on EOD basis can be expected. |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #5085 Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2012 11:46 am Post subject: |
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steve, as they say, if you can't avoid it, lie down and enjoy it!
If you really want to buy puts, buy 5700 not lower. Market will try to consolidate till next Monday and also wait for political developments. Unless we see a daily close below 5515 no worry. Problem if I feel it may not go till that level and hence in-the-money-puts.
RK, if we have early elections, it suits congress a great deal. |
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