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SP50
Brown Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2010
Posts: 1615
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Post: #5086  Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2012 12:15 pm Post subject: |
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I have a feeling that it will be a repeat of Sep2010.  |
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stevenmat
White Belt
Joined: 27 Dec 2011
Posts: 478
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| Post: #5087 Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2012 12:18 pm Post subject: |
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| imagine a combo of OTM and ITM puts...and the government falls down..haha... i'm thinking they'll pull back all these reforms..may be what the left is saying is right...congress did all these reforms with a bang to cover up the coalgate issue which was covering the newspaper headlines for days... technically the chart looks very bullish..i'm not denying that.. but when nifty is above 5630/5650 levels...i think its a good time to sell..(purely a fundamental view).. nifty is crazy..it does a lot of crazy things.. at sovereign level the sentiment indicator is how your currency performs...look at rupee..its pathetic..i'm not excited by the 1 odd percent gain we had yesterday..for starters let the rupee-dollar come down to less than 50..then i'll get excited.. not now! |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #5088 Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2012 1:13 pm Post subject: |
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| yes steve but a daily close above 5695 will mean no fall |
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rk_a2003
Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #5089 Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2012 4:59 pm Post subject: |
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Dow and S&P moved up just 0.39% on Friday, which signifies that US markets are not so euphoric about FED actions or they are not that confident. They are well aware of the real impact of QE1 and QE2.May be… they want to see how the real data is going to come out in future.
Then, when direct beneficiaries including China are responding in a subtle way, why should Nifty and Hangseng be euphoric?
Is this euphoria is going to fade faster than our expectations? Let us see in the coming days. |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #5090 Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2012 5:13 pm Post subject: |
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| rk_a2003 wrote: | Dow and S&P moved up just 0.39% on Friday, which signifies that US markets are not so euphoric about FED actions or they are not that confident. They are well aware of the real impact of QE1 and QE2.May be… they want to see how the real data is going to come out in future.
Then, when direct beneficiaries including China are responding in a subtle way, why should Nifty and Hangseng be euphoric?
Is this euphoria is going to fade faster than our expectations? Let us see in the coming days. |
Nervous investor jitters there rk  ... Nasdaq above 10 year high, SNP close to 2008 highs and so is DOW. They will tune up a bit in tandom, catch up with each other before moving. |
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rk_a2003
Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #5091 Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2012 5:35 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | rk_a2003 wrote: | Dow and S&P moved up just 0.39% on Friday, which signifies that US markets are not so euphoric about FED actions or they are not that confident. They are well aware of the real impact of QE1 and QE2.May be… they want to see how the real data is going to come out in future.
Then, when direct beneficiaries including China are responding in a subtle way, why should Nifty and Hangseng be euphoric?
Is this euphoria is going to fade faster than our expectations? Let us see in the coming days. |
Nervous investor jitters there rk ... Nasdaq above 10 year high, SNP close to 2008 highs and so is DOW. They will tune up a bit in tandom, catch up with each other before moving. |
True Apka,The Dow and the S&P 500 recorded the highest closing in five years while the Nasdaq is at 12-year high.
But in Friday’s market action strong gains in the morning steadily eroded throughout the day, perhaps it could be the first sign of fatigue for the market and a possible correction may set in. But, we should be aware of the fact that Market highs always witness violent swings.
If it is going to be the market high, we may witness high volatility for some time before coming down. It’s definitely not going to be a vertical fall, at least till US elections.
These points are equally dangerous for bears and bulls. The motto should be hit and run, pocket your profits and run away brisk. Don’t position yourself till a reversal or upside breakout is confirmed. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #5092 Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2012 8:18 pm Post subject: |
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| RK, US markets didn't notch up much gains on Friday since they already had done that on Thursday after bernanke's talk. I won't be surprised if US markest go up further from here by 5-10% |
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rk_a2003
Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #5093 Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2012 9:02 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | RK, US markets didn't notch up much gains on Friday since they already had done that on Thursday after bernanke's talk. I won't be surprised if US markest go up further from here by 5-10% |
Yes Vinay, it's quite possible. They might be gasping for the breathe after a marathon.
If they rise above 5% from here it will be the all time record level for the US markets. What a backdrop for the markets to reach the record levels.
This record could be quite different from the past records, while they were made during bubbles. Now there is no bubble. If at all we are compelled to see some bubble it could be QE bubble.
I am trying to read all the possibilities .I just want to say that contrary to current trend in which US markets went down intraday and bounced up quickly to close near days high. Friday it closed near days low consistently falling from high’s. It’s a qualitative difference and a bearish sign.Just trying to be objective.
It could be a one day phenomena and as you said from Monday market may go up again. Let us wait and see. |
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rakpeds
White Belt
Joined: 24 Jun 2012
Posts: 481
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| Post: #5094 Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2012 9:09 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | RK, US markets didn't notch up much gains on Friday since they already had done that on Thursday after bernanke's talk. I won't be surprised if US markest go up further from here by 5-10% |
as u can see fed news give boost of lest than 2% for US markets... while hangseng and nifty rose more than that..
but friday as mentioned by rk was bearish sign as buy on rumors and sell on news...
Still lets see what happens next....  |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #5095 Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2012 9:10 pm Post subject: |
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| yes RK. it's a question of getting prepared for 5500 plus/minus 21% within a year, probably both |
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replyab
White Belt
Joined: 29 Aug 2012
Posts: 156
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| Post: #5096 Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2012 9:25 pm Post subject: |
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| rk_a2003 wrote: | Dow and S&P moved up just 0.39% on Friday, which signifies that US markets are not so euphoric about FED actions or they are not that confident. They are well aware of the real impact of QE1 and QE2.May be… they want to see how the real data is going to come out in future.
Then, when direct beneficiaries including China are responding in a subtle way, why should Nifty and Hangseng be euphoric?
Is this euphoria is going to fade faster than our expectations? Let us see in the coming days. |
at time of qe1 markets moved up ,at time qe2 market moved down (i am ref med or long trend),this time what ? as per seasoned players like you |
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rk_a2003
Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #5097 Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2012 10:24 pm Post subject: |
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| replyab wrote: | | rk_a2003 wrote: | Dow and S&P moved up just 0.39% on Friday, which signifies that US markets are not so euphoric about FED actions or they are not that confident. They are well aware of the real impact of QE1 and QE2.May be… they want to see how the real data is going to come out in future.
Then, when direct beneficiaries including China are responding in a subtle way, why should Nifty and Hangseng be euphoric?
Is this euphoria is going to fade faster than our expectations? Let us see in the coming days. |
at time of qe1 markets moved up ,at time qe2 market moved down (i am ref med or long trend),this time what ? as per seasoned players like you |
I already posted my observations and opinions in different threads.
The effect of QE's are coming down in terms of the impact on the markets.....Overdose of any thing will yield the same result.
During both the QE's markets went up in near future but, it went up with more intensity and for longer duration during QE1 compared to QE2.QE3 could very well be the continuation.
But sensing this danger this time FED announced open ended monthly infusion till the revival of the economy (means creation of more jobs).Markets would like to wait and see the actual data before falling.For the data to come out it will take some time.
In the short to medium term Markets are poised to go up.
In the longer term markets will collapse for the reason that fundamentals are not revived despite of induction of stimulus plans by various governments all over the world. |
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replyab
White Belt
Joined: 29 Aug 2012
Posts: 156
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| Post: #5098 Posted: Sun Sep 16, 2012 6:46 am Post subject: |
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| rk_a2003 wrote: | | replyab wrote: | | rk_a2003 wrote: | Dow and S&P moved up just 0.39% on Friday, which signifies that US markets are not so euphoric about FED actions or they are not that confident. They are well aware of the real impact of QE1 and QE2.May be… they want to see how the real data is going to come out in future.
Then, when direct beneficiaries including China are responding in a subtle way, why should Nifty and Hangseng be euphoric?
Is this euphoria is going to fade faster than our expectations? Let us see in the coming days. |
at time of qe1 markets moved up ,at time qe2 market moved down (i am ref med or long trend),this time what ? as per seasoned players like you |
I already posted my observations and opinions in different threads.
The effect of QE's are coming down in terms of the impact on the markets.....Overdose of any thing will yield the same result.
During both the QE's markets went up in near future but, it went up with more intensity and for longer duration during QE1 compared to QE2.QE3 could very well be the continuation.
But sensing this danger this time FED announced open ended monthly infusion till the revival of the economy (means creation of more jobs).Markets would like to wait and see the actual data before falling.For the data to come out it will take some time.
In the short to medium term Markets are poised to go up.
In the longer term markets will collapse for the reason that fundamentals are not revived despite of induction of stimulus plans by various governments all over the world. |
rk sir.
thanks for reply and analysis therein |
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saumya12
Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Dec 2011
Posts: 1509
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| Post: #5099 Posted: Sun Sep 16, 2012 10:23 pm Post subject: |
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Hi friends
I have bought some call options (5300CE and 5500CE) on 10 & 11th that are in the money now and want to book some profit out of 5300CE. I think it will be OK to book profit from ITM call options.
Thanks |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #5100 Posted: Mon Sep 17, 2012 9:04 am Post subject: |
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| saumya12 wrote: | Hi friends
I have bought some call options (5300CE and 5500CE) on 10 & 11th that are in the money now and want to book some profit out of 5300CE. I think it will be OK to book profit from ITM call options.
Thanks |
Congrats, Saumya....you're doing really well with your option trading....  .....but since you have both 5300 as well 5500 CALLs, my suggestion will be to book out 5300 CALLs...or at least taking some partial profits. Taking some profit is always good, especially during these times. In the last few months, my trading Nifty trading positions were in 150 or 200 point profit a few times, but I have avoided taking partial profits. When the market went to 5032 levels, I was having a considerable profit, as I were on the bearish side from around 5240 levels. But in the end, I have exited them all in losses. That was stupidity from my side not to book partial profit or placing some trailing stops. But the same strategy was working in the past for me. So, I was pretty confident. But now, after the debacles I'm trying to be a bit more flexible. Trying to do some small trades and getting out once my first target is achieved. I'm not asking you to book profits completely. There is no doubt that the market is in a BUYING mode now. But I'm suggesting you to book some profit, especially in the 5300 CALLs as you already have 5500 CALLs to advantage if the market doesn't stop around here. Anyway, consider all the factors, before coming to a conclusion....By the way, if we go to levels around 5620 today, it wont be a bad area to exit some CALLs, I feel.... |
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