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psalm
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Post: #5206  Posted: Mon Sep 24, 2012 2:33 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | very naughty, prakash/sam/apka. How about stories around a fire as in ancient times? 
By the way, I feel one should buy around 5660/50 with 5600 SL |
There is not much weakness in the overall market, Vinay....I agree with that....but there is good chance (I mean higher probability) for some profit booking ahead of expiry....By the way, the expiry moves are pretty unpredictable....by the way, as I have mentioned a few major banks were hovering around their resistances, that's why thought of selling the index.....I am still LONG in a few bank stocks.....so, didn't find much risk in selling bank Nifty......But I'm cautious now with my LONGs....many of my LONGs might trigger their trailing stops soon, I feel......so, fingers crossed!!!....  |
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vinay28
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| Post: #5207 Posted: Mon Sep 24, 2012 9:52 pm Post subject: |
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| sam, today I bought a small 6000CE for oct and intend to do so for every small fall |
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psalm
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| Post: #5208 Posted: Tue Sep 25, 2012 9:07 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | sam, today I bought a small 6000CE for oct and intend to do so for every small fall |
Vinay,
There is good chance for the market to go up in October and in early November, because of the presidential elections. But personally, I "EXPECT" a small correction of around 200 or 300 points before the market going up again. Having said that, I'm not thinking about exiting my LONGs which contribute most of my portfolio at this point of time. But I'm cautious now. As the global markets have given a pause and that the dollar index is going up slightly. At this point of time, a break above yesterday's high may push the dollar index to 80.65 levels or even around 81.15 levels. If you look at the sectoral indices in the U.S markets, some of them have already gone below their QE3 day lows. One index which I'm following is the Transportation index which has gone below its recent lows. Another index in the U.S, which has shone strength in the recent past is Russel 2000. But that index is also showing weakness now. This could be the beginning of some distribution there. Having said that, I dont think this is the end of the rally in the U.S Markets. I expect that there could be at least one more upmoves left. I expect that move towards the fag end of October and then up to November. We might see DOW attempting its previous highs of 14200 in that move. If that happens we might see our markets testing 6000 again in October. So, one may expect our markets to test 6000 levels by the end of October or November. So, there is nothing wrong in thinking about buying the October CALLs. That's what I feel at this point of time. But you don't have to be aggressive in buying, I feel. As, there is reasonable chances of some profit booking. It is also possible that we may not break above the highs made in October as the effect of QEs are diminishing. But as you have mentioned earlier, our govt is trying their best to attract the FIIs with some policy actions. Let's hope that there will be more to come from them. Let's hope that there will be more reforms so that our economy and thus our markets can go up further. There are a few things for the optimists now. But will that be enough?..will that ensure the continuation of this upmove??...let's wait and watch. Cautiously optimistic now. 
Regards,
SAM |
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vinay28
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| Post: #5209 Posted: Tue Sep 25, 2012 9:58 am Post subject: |
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| thanks sam. By the way, there was a freak trade on sgxnifty yesterday with a low of 5606 |
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stevenmat
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| Post: #5210 Posted: Tue Sep 25, 2012 10:03 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | sam, today I bought a small 6000CE for oct and intend to do so for every small fall |
whats your tgt and time frame? |
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vinay28
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| Post: #5211 Posted: Tue Sep 25, 2012 10:31 am Post subject: |
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| steve, I am not sure about target time but could be 2-4 weeks and I am hoping for 6000 in Oct |
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psalm
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| Post: #5212 Posted: Tue Sep 25, 2012 10:36 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | thanks sam. By the way, there was a freak trade on sgxnifty yesterday with a low of 5606 |
Let's see if we find support around 5600 levels, Vinay.....at least till expiry.... |
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psalm
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| Post: #5213 Posted: Tue Sep 25, 2012 10:41 am Post subject: |
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| psalm wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | very naughty, prakash/sam/apka. How about stories around a fire as in ancient times?
By the way, I feel one should buy around 5660/50 with 5600 SL |
There is not much weakness in the overall market, Vinay....I agree with that....but there is good chance (I mean higher probability) for some profit booking ahead of expiry....By the way, the expiry moves are pretty unpredictable....by the way, as I have mentioned a few major banks were hovering around their resistances, that's why thought of selling the index.....I am still LONG in a few bank stocks.....so, didn't find much risk in selling bank Nifty......But I'm cautious now with my LONGs....many of my LONGs might trigger their trailing stops soon, I feel......so, fingers crossed!!!.... |
Most of my banking LONGs got triggered their trailing stops today morning....it was a great rally in the last few days in Banks....now looking to buy them back from lower levels if possible...I believe that lower levels could be possible.....so, let's wait and see.... |
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vinay28
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| Post: #5214 Posted: Tue Sep 25, 2012 10:56 am Post subject: |
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| Sam, I am also thinking of hedging just in case it retraces a bit for a few days into Oct. Say a 5500PE |
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psalm
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| Post: #5215 Posted: Tue Sep 25, 2012 11:02 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | Sam, I am also thinking of hedging just in case it retraces a bit for a few days into Oct. Say a 5500PE |
nothing wrong in trying to be a bit safe......  |
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stevenmat
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| Post: #5216 Posted: Tue Sep 25, 2012 12:59 pm Post subject: |
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| psalm wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | Sam, I am also thinking of hedging just in case it retraces a bit for a few days into Oct. Say a 5500PE |
nothing wrong in trying to be a bit safe...... |
vinay..even i'm thinking of buying into 5900CE october series.. but the problem is that i'm scared of deccay in time value in the option premium..with last weeks run..nifty might pause for a while..that would lower the premiums..right.. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #5217 Posted: Tue Sep 25, 2012 1:09 pm Post subject: |
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steve, if you buy oct CE, you needn't worry about decay in premium.
Note that many a big FIIs are very bullish on India since late august including Morgan Stanley. Apart from reforms already announced and more to come, there is a hidden advantage to be invested in India and that is fall in commodities due China retreating, fall in DI, etc. This will further reduce fiscal deficit |
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stevenmat
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| Post: #5218 Posted: Tue Sep 25, 2012 1:33 pm Post subject: |
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hmm...thats interesting.. vinay its good for you that you'll be able to track markets..i'm off to my project site in a few days so i won't be able to follow the market..  ah...its frustrating when you work on something which you hate (i'm talking abt myself ..lol!)
But i've bought quite a lot of stocks in the past week..so i don't want to initiate more longs.. the only way to short stocks over a period is to buy puts/sell futures ? |
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vinay28
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| Post: #5219 Posted: Tue Sep 25, 2012 1:48 pm Post subject: |
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| steve, if you can't access market from project site, no point in trading including buying/selling futures/options |
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stevenmat
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| Post: #5220 Posted: Tue Sep 25, 2012 2:13 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | steve, if you can't access market from project site, no point in trading including buying/selling futures/options |
hehe...thats true... but yea i'm on the look out for other jobs..trying to swiitch to finance..
but tell me this.. nifty october series 5900 CE is trading at around 36 while yesterday's close was 42.. although nifty is marginally in the green..the premium depreciated right?! |
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