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rakpeds
White Belt
Joined: 24 Jun 2012
Posts: 481
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Post: #5461  Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 12:20 pm Post subject: |
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| taxmann50 wrote: | | apka wrote: | inflation gone up again and more than expected it has come at 7.81% and I think july inflation also revised to higher level... yet marke is holding what for expecting a rate cut  |
Rate cut expectation is high and if Nifty has to reach 6000 by diwali it is a must else this market will retest 5400. |
By what means rate cut expectation can be made bro... if u can see last month inflation also revised to higher levels..
subba many times said inflation is the key to any rate cuts... even chiddu cant do anything in that... |
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apka
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Joined: 13 Dec 2011
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| Post: #5462 Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 12:21 pm Post subject: |
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| rakpeds wrote: | | taxmann50 wrote: | | apka wrote: | | inflation gone up again and more than expected it has come at 7.81% and I think july inflation also revised to higher level... yet marke is holding what for expecting a rate cut |
Rate cut expectation is high and if Nifty has to reach 6000 by diwali it is a must else this market will retest 5400. |
By what means rate cut expectation can be made bro... if u can see last month inflation also revised to higher levels..
subba many times said inflation is the key to any rate cuts... even chiddu cant do anything in that... |
correct, i read somewhere chiddu has said rbi should take risk, etc. and someone had commented rbis job is to not take risk but control risk. |
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rakpeds
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Joined: 24 Jun 2012
Posts: 481
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| Post: #5463 Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 12:25 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | rakpeds wrote: | | taxmann50 wrote: | | apka wrote: | | inflation gone up again and more than expected it has come at 7.81% and I think july inflation also revised to higher level... yet marke is holding what for expecting a rate cut |
Rate cut expectation is high and if Nifty has to reach 6000 by diwali it is a must else this market will retest 5400. |
By what means rate cut expectation can be made bro... if u can see last month inflation also revised to higher levels..
subba many times said inflation is the key to any rate cuts... even chiddu cant do anything in that... |
correct, i read somewhere chiddu has said rbi should take risk, etc. and someone had commented rbis job is to not take risk but control risk. |
As said, chiddu/ govt may not remain forever but RBI will be forever... a govt cant pressurise them to do on their own will... the inflation data is also looking compromized for this month we might again see this revised next month as diesel price hike...
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rk_a2003
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Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #5464 Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 12:58 pm Post subject: |
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Inflation and India’s budget deficit which is around 5.2% of GDP is preventing RBI from reducing the rates. Compare it to United States, It was over $ 1trillion budget deficit in 4th year in a row, and this deficit now amount to 7% of GDP. So if United States can afford 7% deficit to its economy and keep interest rates very low near zero, what is preventing RBI to take some actions to reduce rates from near 8% to lower if not zero?
In United States, the inflationary indicators are being managed so that inflation looks very low whereas in India weaker rupee was raising the inflation.
No doubt, keeping inflation under control is in the interest of you and me. We are more vulnerable to inflation, Not the rich and super rich.
Still, we can’t rule out the possibility of F.M arm twisting RBI for rate cut in anticipation of a market rally for subsequent possible disinvestment. |
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SP50
Brown Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2010
Posts: 1615
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| Post: #5465 Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 12:58 pm Post subject: |
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| rakpeds wrote: | | apka wrote: | | rakpeds wrote: | | taxmann50 wrote: | | apka wrote: | | inflation gone up again and more than expected it has come at 7.81% and I think july inflation also revised to higher level... yet marke is holding what for expecting a rate cut |
Rate cut expectation is high and if Nifty has to reach 6000 by diwali it is a must else this market will retest 5400. |
By what means rate cut expectation can be made bro... if u can see last month inflation also revised to higher levels..
subba many times said inflation is the key to any rate cuts... even chiddu cant do anything in that... |
correct, i read somewhere chiddu has said rbi should take risk, etc. and someone had commented rbis job is to not take risk but control risk. |
As said, chiddu/ govt may not remain forever but RBI will be forever... a govt cant pressurise them to do on their own will... the inflation data is also looking compromized for this month we might again see this revised next month as diesel price hike...
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At the end it only matters what foreigners think of the inflation numbers, they are at the moment only interested in buying. |
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shahrachit
White Belt
Joined: 12 Jul 2012
Posts: 117
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| Post: #5466 Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 1:11 pm Post subject: |
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I think Nifty should move up as its not breaking 5630 levels......
| shahrachit wrote: | Critical support level for Nifty is around 5625 / 5630 .....
6/9/2012 low was 5217
5/10/2012 High was 5815
Fibonacci level (31.8%) comes to be 5625
High on 22/02/2012 was 5630
Same can be observed from below chart. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #5467 Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 2:14 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | just wanted to inform you all about one interesting thing. If you open your odin today, you will find that NF closed at 5739.35. Though this could be due to dummy trading on Saturday, I wonder whether there is a hint in it. |
will it happen? |
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SP50
Brown Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2010
Posts: 1615
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| Post: #5468 Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 3:34 pm Post subject: |
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| If reliance results are good then we will start off with 5750 tomorrow morning, |
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apka
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Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #5469 Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 3:36 pm Post subject: |
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and if axis and reliance result not liked and if citibank result tonight not upto mark then -50 tommorow  |
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rakpeds
White Belt
Joined: 24 Jun 2012
Posts: 481
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| Post: #5470 Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 3:37 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | and if axis and reliance result not liked and if citibank result tonight not upto mark then -50 tommorow |
if all results bad than -100... hehehehhe |
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SP50
Brown Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2010
Posts: 1615
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| Post: #5471 Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 3:38 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | and if axis and reliance result not liked and if citibank result tonight not upto mark then -50 tommorow |
Absolutely right.
What does the chart say? |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #5472 Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 3:47 pm Post subject: |
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| taxmann50 wrote: | | apka wrote: | | and if axis and reliance result not liked and if citibank result tonight not upto mark then -50 tommorow |
Absolutely right.
What does the chart say? |
For reliance good support @ 790 then 768.
For AXIS good support @ 1101 then 1060.
Seeing downside in both of them as per daiy chart and weekly charts.
For Nifty its stuck in range of 5770 and 5630, either side break needed to develop new trend. Today FNO was suggesting upside but I was waiiting for Axis results but it didnt come. 5600pe and 5700ce had added near 9 lakh share each, but 5500ce had shed 1.5 lakh shares and 5700pe had added near 5 lakh shares.. so the combo was a bit bizzare. Then 5600pe addition went upto 17 lakh shares and 5700ce saw short covering it got reduced to 3 lakh shares addition. And so many times nifty took support between 6550-6560.
5600pe has near 85 lkah shares in OI and 5800ce has about 90 lakh shares... big news mover needed else stuck for expiry. |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #5473 Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 6:42 pm Post subject: |
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| reliance can see 890 if other stocks (particularly banks) help nifty go up |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #5474 Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2012 3:54 pm Post subject: |
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as per FNO today 5700pe and 5800pe have shedded 5 lakh shares each -- suggesting 5700pe writers are giving up.
5700ce has added 18 lakh shares, 5800ce has added 12 lakh shares -- rise seems capped @ 5675 spot now.
5600pe had seen addition but got reduced to 4 lakh. Its total OI 80 lakh is bothering me, makes chance of downside that much less.
But we have made new low today since we started falling and also new lower closing which is also below daily BB middle. 5575-5580 looks like will test where it can bounce. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #5475 Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2012 4:08 pm Post subject: |
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| The chart shows why 5540NS is now possible. The symmetrical "throne" formed by nifty around the symmetrical triangle. One can also take liberty and call it Hn2S. |
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