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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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Post: #5491  Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2012 10:08 pm Post subject: |
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| apka, what drives technicals? prices, and what decides price trend? f&o, right? Only thing is you have to track f&o regularly. |
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anusantosh
White Belt
Joined: 19 Jun 2011
Posts: 105
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| Post: #5492 Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 7:06 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | apka, you don't know this because you have never done poaching. 
ASSUMING that nifty is headed towards 6000++, traders will come in hordes to short once nifty goes below, say, 5630. Nifty may then go upto 5550 to make them happy and then continuous large gap up opens to trap them as it happened in Jan/Sept. forcing them to cover at much higher levels. Remember that big time traders just don't cover shorts but add to them and then commit suicide. |
Am on short in NF at 5781 from Oct 8th and entered short at 866 in M&M-1M on 10th. I assume NF to go down. I don't know why people has to wait till 5630 to enter short. But as you said if spot nifty seen on 5550 it is very good and if it start struggling to cross 5630 afterwards it will be great. |
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apka
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Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #5493 Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 9:38 am Post subject: |
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VIX is at it again... hitting a low of 14.36.... what in the blue hell ?? yesterday near 12 lakh shares were added in nifty fut and eod it was -6 lakhs, so longs exiting basically. thats why premium became nil. VIX is so low, doesnt look like any fresh shorting is happening.
| anusantosh wrote: | | Am on short in NF at 5781 from Oct 8th and entered short at 866 in M&M-1M on 10th. I assume NF to go down. I don't know why people has to wait till 5630 to enter short. But as you said if spot nifty seen on 5550 it is very good and if it start struggling to cross 5630 afterwards it will be great. |
because 5630 was the top of feb, which we brokeout to give rally of another near 200 points, if it keeps holding.. then chances of falling reduces further. |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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| Post: #5494 Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 9:40 am Post subject: |
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| premium is 10 as of now |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #5495 Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 10:30 am Post subject: |
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| one day VIX will become a penny stock |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #5496 Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 12:10 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | listen to your heart apka having studied so much about recent movements and short at higher levels if you are convinced. |
hmm. if nifty gaps up and trades above 5675-5680 for more than 10-15 mins, ill be opting out of oct series & sqring my positions. Then i'll just wait for rbi policy day before re-entering again. It's utterly confusing when technicals / fno are not respected in nifty and heavywieghts. |
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SP50
Brown Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2010
Posts: 1615
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| Post: #5497 Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 1:14 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | apka wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | listen to your heart apka having studied so much about recent movements and short at higher levels if you are convinced. |
hmm. if nifty gaps up and trades above 5675-5680 for more than 10-15 mins, ill be opting out of oct series & sqring my positions. Then i'll just wait for rbi policy day before re-entering again. It's utterly confusing when technicals / fno are not respected in nifty and heavywieghts. |
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Its a good thought Apka, |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #5498 Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 1:45 pm Post subject: |
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| taxmann50 wrote: | | apka wrote: | | apka wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | listen to your heart apka having studied so much about recent movements and short at higher levels if you are convinced. |
hmm. if nifty gaps up and trades above 5675-5680 for more than 10-15 mins, ill be opting out of oct series & sqring my positions. Then i'll just wait for rbi policy day before re-entering again. It's utterly confusing when technicals / fno are not respected in nifty and heavywieghts. |
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Its a good thought Apka, |
technicals fno respected. who would have thought after seeing US europe asia we would be flat to red.
but the resiliance 5630 is showing is too much... 100 times it must have bounced. |
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SP50
Brown Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2010
Posts: 1615
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| Post: #5499 Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 1:52 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | taxmann50 wrote: | | apka wrote: | | apka wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | listen to your heart apka having studied so much about recent movements and short at higher levels if you are convinced. |
hmm. if nifty gaps up and trades above 5675-5680 for more than 10-15 mins, ill be opting out of oct series & sqring my positions. Then i'll just wait for rbi policy day before re-entering again. It's utterly confusing when technicals / fno are not respected in nifty and heavywieghts. |
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Its a good thought Apka, |
technicals fno respected. who would have thought after seeing US europe asia we would be flat to red.
but the resiliance 5630 is showing is too much... 100 times it must have bounced. |
I agree with you fully but a big correction is due and sub 5400 level is coming and if not this series then next. Without a substantial correction its difficult to move upto 6000 levels by diwali next month,
I may be wrong and 5600 level may be the last lower end but then in that case it will be a huge consolidation at this level precisely a sideway movement ( a flag pattern may be in process).
Lets see |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #5500 Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 2:00 pm Post subject: |
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| taxmann50 wrote: | I agree with you fully but a big correction is due and sub 5400 level is coming and if not this series then next. Without a substantial correction its difficult to move upto 6000 levels by diwali next month,
I may be wrong and 5600 level may be the last lower end but then in that case it will be a huge consolidation at this level precisely a sideway movement ( a flag pattern may be in process).
Lets see |
I dont see a big correction as requirement for now... the rally is based on pure buying and u can see where VIX is today most throught below 15, no shorting is being done. 5575 will find support. and today if not broken 5630 then short covering will come. we need a gap down. |
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shahrachit
White Belt
Joined: 12 Jul 2012
Posts: 117
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| Post: #5501 Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 2:40 pm Post subject: |
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| 5630 as critical support |
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satishkadam
Yellow Belt
Joined: 01 Apr 2010
Posts: 805
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| Post: #5502 Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 2:49 pm Post subject: |
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| shahrachit wrote: | | 5630 as critical support |
But looks like this will be broken.. as MACD and RSI are in sell..
Thanks
Satish   |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #5503 Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 3:00 pm Post subject: |
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| speaking out loud -- (((VIX going to make a big hammer candle today. We have tested all highs 5770, 5730, 5715, 5700, 5690, 5675.... now tommorow 5660-5665 and no more levels will remain to test and cross and then friday we fall.))) |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #5504 Posted: Thu Oct 18, 2012 12:06 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | apka, what drives technicals? prices, and what decides price trend? f&o, right? Only thing is you have to track f&o regularly. |
missed replying to this post.
No vinay i feel technicals are pre known to mrkt movers, like they will not buy n bring another rally crossing 5800 till expiiry. Thats why they are bindaas writing 5800ce n will earn its premium lost. It added near 20 lakh shares taking total to 1.2 cr. quite high.
On the other hand, 5500pe added 25 lakh shares, total being 85 lakh shares. Value wise 25 lakh qty multiplied by even rs.8 of today comes to rs.2cr. Not much.
Game is between 5600 5700 right now. Intraday 5600pe had added 11 lakh shares, suddenly covering started in it it got reduced to 7 lakhs n then mrkt started falling, at lowest point it had reduced to 4 lakh. Then mrkt remained stable kept bouncing n writing of 5600pe increased n 5700ce started shedding oi.
From fno Market itself is looking confused right now about falling. But rise seems capped. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #5505 Posted: Thu Oct 18, 2012 8:49 am Post subject: |
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| apka, you are putting cart before the horse. |
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