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nita
White Belt
Joined: 04 Dec 2010
Posts: 2
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Post: #5701  Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2012 2:39 pm Post subject: |
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| 5600 nov future dude... |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #5702 Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2012 2:43 pm Post subject: |
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| ok dudy |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #5703 Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2012 2:45 pm Post subject: |
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dudette*  |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #5704 Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2012 3:07 pm Post subject: |
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| as per murrey math line, SL for long is daily close below 5625NS |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #5705 Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2012 5:24 pm Post subject: |
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| pkholla wrote: | Apka: 2 queries for you. No hurry, post after close also
1 Your 'NS breaks 20 ema decisively then likely to head towards 50 ema below that' theory, have you applied to single scrips also?
2 Fail to break: For eg, on Sept 17, 2012 Indian Hotel came close to 20 ema (which was above 50 ema) failed to break it and zoomed sharply back up. Any estimate as to how far up it can rebound?
Thanks in advance, Prakash Holla |
1. Yes.
2. The answer is simple for this and applies to all indices / stocks which have good trading volumes. Where Indian Hotels scrip will go after bouncing depends whats it trends right now, how it has behaved previous times when it has bounced from 20ema, what was the trend at that time. No fixed rule applies on all, but I tend to bifurcate and remember each stock or index's behaviour as an individual personality. Then you may find this useful.
Today, SBIN breached 50ema and is close to 200ema (2053). So, my expectation is this should provide atleast cover to go long for 10-20 points. So, it becomes my trade.
All this may not apply on lower volume stocks because since technicals are always kept in check, so the more. of no. of people trading, the more no. of minds following the technical levels, so the more likely it will act as support / resistence as per ema/sma, meaning buying or selling will come there.
There is 5ema, 10ema, 20ema, 50ema, 200ema and same way sma.
At different times, different ema is respected, incase of strong buy or sell trend, even 5 /10ema levels are respected. When 5/10ema are breached then 20ema is tested.
After 20ema, 50 ema is tested and they are more for short-medium term like consolidation phase.
see the attached chart, u will see the no. of times nifty touched / came close to 20ema in the last few days and kept bouncing above.
Today, was a giveaway that we will fall for (my own) 3 interpretations.
a. 2 days we closed below 20ema.
b. The weakness was confirmed by todays opening price 5656 (lowest) in Oct or since we been in this range 5630-5815.
c. And the opening was below 20ema, not happened in this rally so far.
So, it meant intraday resistence incase of a rise would show near the 10ema 5684, and it did.
sorry for going on about it, but i wanted to explain how it works. |
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stevenmat
White Belt
Joined: 27 Dec 2011
Posts: 478
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| Post: #5706 Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2012 6:10 pm Post subject: |
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so your target would be 5559(50 EMA) right?
Disclaimer : i have a short position and i'm still holding  |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #5707 Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2012 6:24 pm Post subject: |
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| stevenmat wrote: | so your target would be 5559(50 EMA) right?
Disclaimer : i have a short position and i'm still holding |
yeh steven. it is also a support / buying zone as per attached chart. |
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pkholla
Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2010
Posts: 2890
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| Post: #5708 Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2012 6:50 pm Post subject: |
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Apka: Thanks for the explanation (and for the trouble taken). Understood perfectly.
Cheers, Prakash Holla |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #5709 Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2012 7:05 pm Post subject: |
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| apka, on what basis have you drawn those 2TLs? |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #5710 Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2012 7:29 pm Post subject: |
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I try to draw lines from where breakout / breakdown occur and find support / resistences to extend them.
1st line coming from below and rising:
The starting of the line is next to a white morubozu candle (which normally indicates fresh upside). After this 2 candles emerge, whose base I have taken as the starting point. The 3rd day gap down occurs and the line is not breached on 2nd attempt (4th day) also. Taking it further, at 3rd attempt nifty touches it and makes a doji. Next day gap up and resistence is broken.
2nd line coming from above and sliding:
Before the start of the line there is a big white candle. Then next 4 days see consolidation and the 5th day (from where I have drawn the line) sees a closing higher than the big white candle and nifty keeps rising thereafter. So that was a breakout point. After nifty starts falling, 4th day was a red candle and 5th a candle (break in falling trend). So the start point 4th and 5th day bases are linear.
Then I just extend the line and they are meeting near 5561.
I could be wrong, its my personal way of judging... probably I'm overdoing it.
Last edited by apka on Tue Oct 30, 2012 7:30 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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chetan83
Brown Belt
Joined: 19 Feb 2010
Posts: 2036
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| Post: #5711 Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2012 7:29 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | as per murrey math line, SL for long is daily close below 5625NS |
As 5625 was breached in NS, so it seems that Veera's 5555 no. is next level to be seen  |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #5712 Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2012 7:48 pm Post subject: |
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yes chetan possible but there is another possibility and that is a gap down open tmrw and reversal before reaching 5555. Veerappan's nos are NF and not NS and 5555NF means about 5525NS and that may not happen at all.
"I try to draw lines...."
apka, if I start drawing lines like this I will get about a hundred! 
Thanks but I am either unconvinced or did not understand your super funda!
Incidentally nifty breached 34 ema and 55 ema is at about 5542 |
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stevenmat
White Belt
Joined: 27 Dec 2011
Posts: 478
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| Post: #5713 Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2012 7:50 pm Post subject: |
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oh ok..thanks for the explanation..i'll keep my target around that...
although i still believe that since we have decisively broken out of the trading range..i expect NS to touch around 5435..partially to fill the gap we had sept 14..lets see |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #5714 Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2012 7:52 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | yes chetan possible but there is another possibility and that is a gap down open tmrw and reversal before reaching 5555. Veerappan's nos are NF and not NS and 5555NF means about 5525NS and that may not happen at all.
"I try to draw lines...."
apka, if I start drawing lines like this I will get about a hundred!
Thanks but I am either unconvinced or did not understand your super funda!
Incidentally nifty breached 34 ema and 55 ema is at about 5542 |
hehe. you are capable of understanding, so its established you are unconvinced... my funds are unconventional.
will watch for 55ema. |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #5715 Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2012 8:26 pm Post subject: |
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| Today's move definitely look like a breakdown....5590, which is around today's low, is the immediate support...if tomorrow is another down-day, then there is every possibility that this minor support will be broken again...in that case, I dont see much support up to the range 5540-5520....levels around 5520 is the next significant support; below that even 5434-5415 area (as mentioned by Steven) could be tested with 5492 offering minor support....I have short position in the NIFTY, taken around 5645...have plans to exit half around 5540 and then around 5495....let's see if we really test those levels in the coming days....On the upside, levels around 5640-5660 would be a good area to initiate fresh shorts with 30 or 40 point stop, I feel....Let's see how the things go from here... |
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