iCharts Discussions

[sanmen]

Hi friends

I am posting my views on Nifty based on my little understanding of TA..

1. The 4th Main wave starting from 3790 levels ended at 4649 levels. The progression of Nifty from these levels is the start of 5th Main wave. This wave should also have the 5 wave pattern with all waves having their internal wave formations.

2. The hourly chart posted below shows the internal wave formations of the wave 1 of the 5th Main so far. The internal minor wave 3 ended at 4316 levels and thereafter nifty moved in a triangle pattern completing the wave 4 in a-b-c-d-e formation.

The internal wave 5 of 1 ended with a fierce down movement at 4203 levels. Usually these fierce movements are countered by similar upmoves which we witnessed on friday. Now having ended the wave 1 at 4203 we are in the internals of wave 2. This corrective wave should form the a-b-c formation.

Looking at the current progression of Nifty, on friday Nifty was resisted at 38.2% retracement levels of Wave 1 (from 4649 till 4203). Nifty was not able to breach this level inspite trying on more than one occassion. I would like to call it as "a" of wave 2.

On Monday we should see nifty falling (DOW will have its effect) and taking support at 4300 around levels with +/- 20 pts as this is a strong support area. That should be completion of "b" of wave 2 and thereafter nifty should target 4430-50 levels. This level is 50% retracement level of Wave 1 (though there is no such level as per Fib but mkts seem to be following them). Also according to EW, the target of corrective waves is the 4th wave of the previous degree. The wave 4 triangle (a-b-c-d-e formation) has 4433 as the highest level so that can be the potential target of this wave 2

I would change the above view if Nifty manages to sustain and close above 4430 levels. The level 4420-30 is important for any further upmove. MACD has also given a buy signal on the hourly charts which is inline with the other formations.

Also have a look at the EOD charts..pattern traders would have observed a H&S making in the progress..the movement of nifty that i have discussed above would complete the right shoulder..All falling in place it seems!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! IT AINT SO EASY

Note: another theory suggests that nifty may not be able to close above 4370-80 levels..though i am not favouring it as of now..lets see how things shape up.

For monday, i would be closing my shorts which i opened on friday and then going long around 4300 levels..look out for all emas which are stacked around 4310-20 area if thats any indication.

NOTE: A REQUEST TO ALL AND SPECIALLY THE SENIORS - PLEASE GIVE UR VIEWS ON THIS..PL CORRECT MY MISTAKES WHICH I MUST HAVE MADE BY OVERLOOKING CERTAIN FACTS.

PS: These are my views based on little i know as i am new here Please do your due diligence before you trade.

Cheers and happy trading!!!

Sandeep

[sanmen]

hey..4436 happens to be a Gann level as well...so many factors around this level making it the all important level..Interesting how different methods converge at the same place

cheers!!!!

Sandeep

[jimmie]

hi sanmen,
my view is if we can see 4400 plus levels now, (i agree with ur other theory of 4370-4380).. we may see a new high above 4650 .. before falling further... somehow my conviction tells me 4700 before anything else..
jimmy

[zzz]

hi sanmen i am also having a similar view & i posted it in my blog too..

i expect nifty to move till 4470 ie 61 % retracement of 4650-4200. wave c of 2 has a tgt of 4470 ie 4200+ 1.618x 167(wave a =167pts)

[rameshraja]

Hi Mr Sandeep

Good Analysis but one question, Does Wave work well in sideways market for visibility of TGTs ?

My understanding is until this sideways movement is broken, we need to day trade than swings. Am I correct ?


Regards


C T RAMESH RAJA

[sanmen]

Hello friends

Todays movement of Nifty has been spot on as was discussed in my post..lets see how things move tomorrow as we would be CLUELESS with DOW closed tonite

RR Sir: Thanx a ton for appreciating and writing in...so far with what ever little i have experienced on EW it does seem to be working in the market..the mistake that we people do is in the marking of waves, which we realise only later..intraday would be right strategy such as when u have the waves forming a traingle pattern..else ways its a good tool for positional and swing players...I remember Mayur saying the same that he doesnt need to day trade any more and is more into swing trades

Jimmie: so far so good ..i am with you on 4370-80..dont want it to go much beyond this level...for longs i guess 4436 is the major hurdle as of now..positional longs would be above that only..till then better to play the swings intraday...whats ur view..

cheers!!!

Sandeep

[sanmen]

Hi ZZZ

sorry missed out on replying to you...Lets see how markets fair tomorrow as tomorrow will be the decider..i have a feeling that it will be difficult going beyond 4430..that should be the max..and if thats taken out then we can see higher levels as well..for now i would be watching 4370-80 levels itself..if theres no gap up tomorrow then would it be a "double top"?????

thanx

Sandeep

[zzz]

hi sanmen...

i was expecting d crude to cool off & today it cracked.. this may trigger a rally.. but i dont expect nifty to cross 4500-50 level & my downside target is around 4100-00 anyways let's wait & watch..

[sanmen]

Hi friends

I am posting my views on Nifty's movement. Please share your comments & views on this.

1. Lets take a look at the Hourly chart here. Continuing from my past post where i had marked the end of Wave 1 of Larger 5th wave or Larger Wave C. Thereafter the movement was in an a-b-c formation which i had anticipated till 4430 levels but it went on till 4558 courtesy NSG waiver. This retracement was actually 73.6%. We call it end of Wave 2 of 5 (or C).

2. The progression of Nifty thereafter is the start of the Wave 3 of 5. The chart enclosed marks the internal waves of the Wave 1 of 3 (of Larger 5). I am not sure whether the low of 4200 is the end of this wave or may be some more downside is left (may be till 4160). Whether additional downfall is there or not, Nifty is set to retrace back..Expecting a 38.2% retracement it can actually retrace upto 4310-4320NS area marking the end of wave 2 of 3 and a sell signal should be generated based on candlesticks or divergences..

However, a retracement till 61.8% level is also not ruled out as this is wave 2 which typically retraces more hence shorts should be exercised only when there is a sell signal.

3. MY target for this wave 3 is around 3800 on Spot, which is pretty much inline with the EW guidelines as well. This would be approximately a down fall of 750 pts. From there a retracement of 38.2% will bring us back 4000+ levels once again. From there on the final wave on the down side should start leading us to the final target of 3500-3600 levels on the Nifty spot.

4. A few more observations, Interestingly, Nifty has also broken a big triangle on the downside as shown in the charts. The target for this triangle is around 360 points giving a level of 4040..Lets wait and watch..

A H&S on the EOD...i mentioned this in my earlier post as well..on Friday, Nifty breahced the neckline, recovered and then rested on it on the closing. A double bottom + neckline support should be good enough for a jump from here as I described above. Not to forget the +ve divergence in MACD (marked on the charts)...all in all monday should be a +ve day unless we have some seriously -ve news for more downside.

Overall there are too many -ve factors both technically and fundamentally as of now suggesting more pain in the near term. I wonder how the results are going to be as the effect of higher crude, interest rates etc would be visible in the results this time..

Pl share your valuable views and comments on this..also pl trade as per your understanding. These are just my views and I MAY BE WRONG

Happy Trading!!

Sandeep

[marne.vivek]

Hi Sandeep,

gr8 to read ur views, as well, i've posted my views at this :

http://www.icharts.in/forum/viewtopic,p,3301.html#3301

regards,

[sanmen]

Hi Friends!!
What a week we have had...wonder how many of us have witnessed such volatile movements earlier...

Am posting a simple chart with no EW markings this time..I have divided the hourly chart into 2 sections named as A and B...just look at the two sections...what do u see????

A MIRROR IMAGE.....RIGHT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Nifty has moved forming a mirror image from 3790 levels to 4640 and back to 3800...whats more interesting is comparing the three waves of this pattern..if you compare the mirror wave actually is of the similar magnitude as of the original one..e.g. from 3790 to 4534...the mirror side of it is from 4530 odd levels to 3800...same is true for the other movements...CAN IT BE MORE INTERESTING THAN THIS..

so what next..my target for Wave C3 achieved at 3800..Wave C4 was expected to retrace till 4160-4200 levels but its already done more than that and looks set for further more..I have a couple of options coming up with this move of nifty..though bearish in medium to long term but bullish for short term..

of one of the views..the above mirror image can also be a Flat correction and this upmove can target the previous top of 4558 as well..the movement will be similar to that of the first upmove of section A..

Lets see how nifty moves in the next week which will confirm the formations..a Gap up on Monday is certain..how big..sustainable is the question..a retracement is likely and from what levels Nifty retraces will be important to note.

Happy Trading!!!!

Sandeep

PS: pl do your own due diligence for trading purposes..these are my views based on my limited knowledge of TA

[sanmen]

sorry..a mistake..if this is Flat correction then this upmove can target high of 4640 or thereabouts and not 4558..pl take note of the same.

cheers!

Sandeep

PS: How many of us believe that the correction from 6357 is over????

[marne.vivek]

Thanks sandeep,

shit, i missed this flat mode A-B-C



And i don;t think the correction from 6357 is over, nothing has changed except SEC and UK-Exchange banning short-selling.

[hdobhal]

Hi,

So what do EW say guys? we are going to 4600 ? I think it will be very unlikely...

Harish

[sanmen]

Hi Harish

Its been a long time that we interacted..thanx for the response..the view is one of the possibilities that might be unfolding as of now..no way a certainty..there are other views as well which i had shared earlier..so this week we should have more clarity on which view looks to be getting confirmed..

Vivek: Even i didnt realise it till the mirror image forced me to think on a different track..as i said thats a possibility so we need to keep that in mind..u take care friend..

Thanx

Sandeep