iCharts Discussions

[anilsutarpune]

[anilsutarpune]

Week Ending: -20-02-2015.
Candlestick Pattern on Weekly Chart: - Doji. Please note Doji Is not reversal signal. Doji means market is undecided.

Doji after big green candle means market is taking pause but also indicate that market is weak at the movement. I have highlighted previous such instances on chart which confirms this concept.

High of the two candles is now new resistance and price action at this point will decide future course of action. Similarly we need to look at support levels and watch price action at these levels. So essentially it means that next week's positions should be taken and managed with extra care.

Trend is still up but Doji has indicated weakness in the trend. So there is no long or short positions possible till key levels are tested again.

So for downside support is at 8710/8700, 8530 are two key levels. If market is holding these levels on closing basis may throw buying opportunity.
8910-15 is new resistance and if nifty fails at these levels short positions can be taken on intraday basis. Carrying short positions overnight should be avoided completely. Trend is still up.
Next resistance is 9000-05.

Important thing to note is nifty has failed at 9000 and reversed again from 8910 on intraday basis . This adds to weakness. Hence this week’s closing will be really important for long term investors.

My personal position will be ‘wait till the time trend is clear’. If at-all position taken it will be ½ of usual size.

Risk Advisory :- Invest based on your own analysis and own risk. This forum is only for discussion

[anilsutarpune]

Week Ending: -28-02-2015.
Candlestick Pattern on Weekly Chart: - Hanging man. This week’s candlestick pattern almost qualifies to be called as hanging man. Hanging man is not very good top reversal pattern and works better if it is actually at the extreme top of the trend. So caution ahead for bulls, watch for bearish patterns.

Individual candlestick analysis:- This week’s candle has small body indicate that bulls have marginal upper hand. Candle also has very long lower shadow indicating bears tried to push the market very low but finally bulls have gained marginal control, small upper shadow indicate resistance to higher price. Above description is a reason as why hanging man is not very good top reversal signal.

Hanging man is considered bearish by some people because it is indicating bears have been forced out by bulls and they are standing out of market and that too at the top of the trend and if the market faces resistance at top level they may step-in with force.

Both above analysis suggest that we need to look at price action between 8950 and 9020. If there is resistance at this level and Nifty fails to stay above this level, Nifty may trade in boxed range between 9050-8650.

This week’s volume is very high. This is bit of warning to bulls. Price has moved marginally up and volume is very high, this is not bullish sign. But it is just a warning and is not indicating reversal, if we see further bearish candlestick pattern then it may lead to reversal.

So all above analysis is pointing out to one thing that is- caution. So unless previous highs are held and tested and held again, market still remains weak. Hence please watch out for false breakout. Possibility of false breakout is slightest elevated.

So everything is not negative. On upper side if Nifty is able to hold 9020 on closing basis and next few sessions we may see 250 point rally taking Nifty close to 9300.

Personally I will trade in the direction of long term trend (buy on dips and not on breakout) till 8700 is broken.

One extra day in week that too budget, doesn’t impact much as this is weekly chart and some weeks also have holidays.

Risk Advisory :- Invest based on your own analysis and own risk. This forum is only for discussion

[neerav1234]

[AMBY]

THANKS FOR CLEAR GUIDANCE.

[amitagg]

Nice explanation and mindset ! Thanks

[anilsutarpune]

Week Ending: -06-03-2015.
Candlestick Pattern on Weekly Chart: - Not a shooting star but almost there. Almost a Doji. Hence No Clear Pattern.
When there is no clear pattern analysis of individual candlestick helps to understand mood of market for completed session and also gives some hints about next session.

Individual candlestick:- This week’s candle has red small body indicating bears are marginally in control. Long upper shadow indicates resistance to higher prices and sellers are showing presence at higher price. The is bit of a smaller but significant lower shadow indicating that bull is active at lower price and is able to absorb selling pressure but has failed to win the session. This analysis sounds bit bearish.

Looking at volume: - Volume is relatively lower but slightly higher than normal. Compared to size of body of candle this volume is not indicating any end of selling pressure. Looks like some sellers are still waiting for the correct price to sell.

Overall picture:- This is third bearish sign in last few weeks at same level. We had shooting stat on 27/01, completion of evening star on 02/02 and now one more bearish signal at the same level. This makes overall picture little bearish in long-term bull market. So this is test of strength of bull!!!
If key levels are broken in coming week we may see a correction. This cluster of bearish signals has created a trading range and break on either side will decide the new trend.

Key levels: - 9010-9110 will act as strong resistance. If broken 9300 is target. 8750-8650 is strong support area. Close below this level can lead to some sort of correction.
Carrying overnight position is high risk proposition. It would be wise to sit outside till the range is broken. This trading range may give nice intraday opportunities.

My personal trade will be in the direction of long term trend (buy on dips and not on breakout)

Risk Advisory :- Invest based on your own analysis and own risk. This forum is only for discussion

[AMBY]

it seems from your analysis and looking back weekly pattern on 27/01/201,
market may take dip up to 8670 and will take support at 50ema 8670.

I am just leaning from your analysis ,

thanks for your clear analysis.
YOU ARE AN

[anilsutarpune]

Week Ending: -14-03-2015.
Candlestick Pattern on Weekly Chart: - There are multiple patterns. This week’s candle is called shaven head. Indicate one sided session. Bulls on holiday! Bears enjoying.
There are two more patterns this week.
Variation of Evening Star:- Classical evening star is three candle pattern. First candle being big green candle followed by a small green or red candle at the top and then pattern is completed by red candle closing below mid way of green candle.
The market psychology behind Evening star goes like this. Hyper active bull takes market to top-with force, creating green candle and gets tired, leading to small body candle at the top and then bears take away charge from tired bull leading to decline.
If you look at candle on 09-02 it is Big Green candle, followed by doji on 16th and then hanging man on 23rd and doji again on 02nd. All three candles have small bodies. And this week we have closing below mid point of green candle (09-02). This is completion of evening star in my opinion. We are having three small candles in between because we are in very strong bull market but the market psychology is still the same.
Second pattern is Falling of roof :- Doji on 02-03 managed to hold 8850 but this week we closed way below it. This is failure to hold previously tested support level at the top of the range. This is very bearish and usually leads to a sharp fall.
Individual candlestick:- This week’s candle has Large red body indicating bares were in control. No upper shadow indicate lack of efforts by bulls to hold or take market up. Small lower shadow is not indicating anything.
All above analysis sounds bearish. But let me remind you that ‘candlestick represents history' and we have to pick up hints for future. Hence analysis of entire chart is more important than analysis of closed candle/pattern.
Looking at volume: -Volume is above average but relative to size of body of previous many candles it is low. This indicate some anomaly pointing to weakening of current trend which is down. Force of fall may not be sustained in future.
Overall picture:-Over all picture looks bearish, as we have back to back bearish patterns. So time to look back a bit to have correct perspective as where we stand. This is very important in candle stick analysis.
Current up trend started when Nifty broke ascending triangle (8600 on 12-01), there was 500 point rally. In this rally Nifty tested 9050 then tested 8600 and again tested 9100 and now at 8650. So if nifty holds next key support which is at 8520 there is possibility that we may test 8900 again. If nifty is not able to hold 8520-8500 on closing basis the Nifty may fall to 8360-8330.
Key levels: - Support is at 8575/60 then at 8520/8500. Resistance at 8685 then at 8750.

Personally for me there is no Buy trade and I will not carry any overnight short position till 8520 is broken.

Risk Advisory :- Invest based on your own analysis and own risk. This forum is only for discussion

[iakash]

Amazing analysis Anil.... ... i am learning more on candlestick analysis through your thread than i have learned from any of the books i have read on this topic.... keep the good work

[ap00039]

NIFTY Hurdle @ 8763. Below 8650 NF will slide upto 8600–8550. NF will be Range 8500- 8800
[Content Removed by Admin]

[anilsutarpune]

[ap00039]

sorry sir ji,

[vinay28]

[amitagg]