iCharts Discussions

[riteshucha]

anil ji, your updates are being missed...

[anilsutarpune]

Week Ending: 24-04-2015.

Candlestick Pattern on weekly chart: - There is no pattern this week. This is continuation of down trend started in the month of March 2015. Important thing to notice is Nifty has closed below 50 week SMA for two consecutive weeks.

Individual candlestick analysis: - This week candle has medium size red body, with small upper and lower shadow. This looks like reduction in velocity of downfall. This can be a pause or beginning of new trend which may be sideways.
Looking at volume: - This week’s volume is low with respect to previous two weeks. This is indication of current trend losing its strength. But compared to body of candle volume is consistent. Hence this is mixed signal. Hence there is possibility of a choppy week ahead.

Overall picture:- Overall picture continues to be bearish. Nifty is at very important point for long term investors.
There is visible bearish head and shoulder formed on the weekly chart. Neckline of this head and shoulder in my opinion is at 7950. If neckline around 7950 is broken and Nifty fails on retest of 7950, this head and shoulder gives a target of 1000 points. Taking Nifty to 7000. (Failure on retest is must-any close above 7950 voids this HnS)
We must remember that, not every head and shoulder breaks neckline- HnS are common phenomena and most are not broken. Also we must remember that this pattern is on the longer timeframe hence move to target will not be easy as many factors will come in play.

Key levels:- Key support is at 7930 and 7830. Both these are daily windows (dis-jointed candles). Nifty in recent past has given pullbacks from windows. Hence these two levels will be key to confirming long term down trend and also HnS.
There is possibility of a pullback; key resistance is at 8057, 8090, 8190, 8275. If all these are cleared we may see a rally up to 8375.

For me this market is still sell on rallies and sell on failure of retest. Failure at resistance is opportunity to sell, target being support areas highlighted above. I will personally avoid selling on breakdown till both supports are broken.

Risk Advisory: - Invest based on your own analysis and own risk. This forum is only for discussion.

[Gemini]

Excellent Analysis. Thanks for sharing.

[anilsutarpune]

Week Ending: 19-06-2015.
Candlestick Pattern on weekly chart: - Like bullish Engulfment. Classical bullish engulfment needs to open below the close of previous candle in downtrend. But open is just 4 point above, so can be called Bullish engulfment.
Important point to note is Nifty is still below 50 week SMA. This is third weekly closing below 50 SMA.

Individual candlestick analysis: - This week candle has big green body indicating bulls were in control of this week’s trading. Candle also has small lower and equally small upper shadow indicating participation from both the sides and finally the session was won by bulls.

Looking at volume: - Volume is slightly more than previous candle, and is slightly less compared to size of body. There is no significant disconnect in volume and price hence price action can be considered consistent. This is first indication that down trend is now paused, so wait and watch.

Overall picture:- This is first bullish sign on chart since 2nd March. Also this has confirmed that 7930 is indeed very important level for Nifty and long term investors must pay attention to this number. Overall picture is now Bearish but Neutral. It is still not bullish. The pattern Bullish engulfment has tendency to give 70-100 % retracement (8020-7950). Hence we will have to wait for another bullish pattern before confirming that down trend is over and new trend has started.

Key levels for next week: - 8275 is key resistance if cleared Nifty may rally till 8375. Next key resistance is at 8440.
On support side 8190-8160 is important level. If held successfully Nifty may test all the resistances mentioned above. If broken 8090 then to 8050 may be tested.

Personal trading direction: - In my personal opinion this is good market for short term long trades with SL at 8160.
Any close below 8160 is good opportunity to sell. Also selling on rallies can be considered if nifty fails at any of the resistance mentioned above. No overnight shot positions.

Risk Advisory: - Invest based on your own analysis and own risk. This forum is only for discussion.

[anilsutarpune]

Week Ending: 26-06-2015.

Candlestick Pattern on weekly chart: - Window or gap or disjointed candles.(Previous High -8250 Current Low -8257). This is called rising window. This is gap up after a bullish engulfment. Rising window after bullish signal is sign of strength. Bulls have propelled market higher and are able to hold it higher.
Also this window will become a support for any down move or correction. So there are two important supports 8260 and 7930 for any future correction.
Please note there is one more rising window/gap on daily chart at 8180. Daily gaps are responding well on nifty.

Nifty is back above 50 weekly SMA ! lets see if stays above!

Individual candlestick analysis: - This week's candle has green medium size body indicating bulls were in control of the session. Candle has no lower shadow- indicating lack of attempt from bears to push price lower and also is indication of strength of bulls. Upper shadow is small indicating bears are showing some presence at higher price.

Looking at volume: - Volume is increasing but just above average. Compared to size of body of candle volume is more which indication of resistance at higher price or price is not increasing in proportion of volume. This is first minor disconnect between price and volume. Hence be careful at higher price.

Overall picture:- Over picture now is neutral. There was bullish engulfment last week and now have rising window. Both these signals are bullish, but market is at key resistance level. 8520 and 8640 are two key resistances if cleared market can be termed bullish again.
For next few weeks there are two possible ranges for Nifty, broad trading range can be 7930-8660, and more choppy inner levels can be 8150-8520.

Key levels for next week: - There are two supports on lower side 8260 and 8180. Bothe these are strong supports and will require news/event to break.
Resistance is at 8450-60, 8490, 8520, 8640. Resistances are so close to each other that it can be considered as zone of resistance. Hence in my opinion 8180-8490 will be trading range.

Personal trading direction: - This week it appears that trades are possible in both the sides. Trade size will be half the normal as market is entering in the range. No quick trade on breakouts. Book profit early

Risk Advisory: - Invest based on your own analysis and own risk. This forum is only for discussion.

[anilsutarpune]

Week Ending: 06-07-2015.

Candlestick Pattern on weekly chart: - Big green candle. There is no pattern. But the candle is showing strength bulls have at this point. Nifty opened below the open of previous candle and then closed above the close of previous candle. This is strong indication that buying is coming at lower level and investors are not willing to leave any opportunity to gather stocks at lower price.
Window/gap near 8260 is closed now. This gap wii no longer act as good support. There is one more gap on daily chart near 8180. Please note Nifty is responding well to daily gaps.
Nifty is above 50 weekly SMA for second week. Fingers crossed!

Individual candlestick analysis: - This week’s candle has big green body indicating that bulls were in complete control of session. Also candle has slightly longer lower and small upper shadow. Not much can be interpreted from upper shadows. But little longer lower shadow is sign of buying at lower level

Looking at volume: - Volume is lower than previous week’s volume and slightly below the average volume. This is a clear disconnect. Price has moved faster and volume is not in proportion of price rise compared to previous week. This is indication that the trend (up) will be challenged soon. Please note volume is one or two candle ahead of price move

Overall picture:- Overall picture is now neutral with bullish bias. Reason for calling it neutral is -key levels are still not cleared. There is lot of bullish strength in the price action but the resistance near 8640 is multi-tested resistance.
Zone near 8360-50 will be area to watch. If this level is held for few days there is possibility of nifty reaching 8800. There is no sign of new top till now.
8180 and 7930 are support on deep lower side

Key levels for next week: - If 8420 is held nifty may test 8640 and then to 8680. If 8680 is cleared may see 8800. Support is at 8420 and 8370. If closed below 8370 nifty may drop to 8180. 8490-8520 is resistance zone. Price action in this zone is still important to me.

Personal trading direction: - I am watching 8490-8520. But overall for me this market is now buy on dips. No short positions unless close below 8370.

Risk Advisory: - Invest based on your own analysis and own risk. This forum is only for discussion.

[riteshucha]

Anil sir,
Closed below 8370 a couple of times, meaning now it's time to short with sl above 8520 closing basis? Is it...

[anilsutarpune]

[anilsutarpune]

Week Ending: 10-07-2015.

Candlestick Pattern on weekly chart: - There are two patterns.
1. Bearish Harami :- This pattern comes after an uptrend. This means buying has stopped or paused. This is not very good reversal pattern. This pattern requires confirmation.
2. Falling of the roof: - This is failure at key level after strong uptrend. Bulls tried to break the key resistance and failed to manage a close above the resistance. This is reliable reversal pattern with target being most recent lowest low.
Please note Nifty is still above 50 week SMA.

Individual candlestick analysis: - This week’s candle has small red body indicating bears have managed to get marginal upper hand. Candle also has long upper shadow. This upper shadow is significant as it shows failure to sustain higher prices. Small lower shadow indicates minor resistance to lower prices. Overall candle is bearish.

Looking at volume: - Volume is just above average but is more compared to last week’s volume. This indicate that buyer and sellers are active and previous to previous weeks price action was a disconnected with reality . Hence next week look like a choppy week ahead.

Overall picture:- Overall picture is neutral. The bullish bias mentioned last week is gone. Nifty has failed at 8520. Hence close above 8520 is now must to add bullish bias. Nifty is in trading range of 8540-8180. 8180 is important support id broken nifty may retest previous low 7930. If 8540-20 is broken we nifty may rally up to 8640-8680.

Key levels for next week: - Support is at 8320, 8180. 8180 is gap on daily chart, gaps have been working as support in recent past for nifty. Resistance is at 8430 and 8490. 8490 is important resistance as it is a gap!

Personal trading direction: - Depends on what happen on Monday and Tuesday. Short positions can be built if Nifty starts failing near 8430 or 8490, target being support mentioned above. Also if 8180 starts holding it will be good opportunity to buy. There is no outright buy or sell, So I am watching key levels to take trade.

Risk Advisory: - Invest based on your own analysis and own risk. This forum is only for discussion.

[anilsutarpune]

Week Ending: 17-07-2015.

Candlestick Pattern on weekly chart: - No Pattern. Just Big green candle. There is no pattern. This is bullish candle.
Please note Nifty is above 50 week SMA for 4th week. This confirms that market has strength.

Individual candlestick analysis: - This week’s candle has green long body indicating bulls were firmly in control of the session. Candle also has small upper and lower shadow indicating participation from bulls are bears. Shadows are not really hinting to anything this week apart from confirming minor resistance and support.

Looking at volume: - Volume is slightly lower than previous week and slightly lower than average. There is minor disconnect between price and volume.

Overall picture:- Overall picture is still neutral with bullish bias. Picture is called neutral just because nifty is not closing above 8640. But Nifty has displayed strength by closing above the previous high(last week's high). This is indeed is sign of strength. Also there is new gap created at 8530 will act as support if there is a down fall in future. 8180 will be a support further down. Next resistance is at 8640-50 and then to 8840-50.
If market retests and holds 8530 there is minor probability of new top in near future or at least testing 9100 again.

Key levels for next week: - Support is at 8530, 8480, 8420, and 8350. Resistance is at 8640, 8675 and 8840.

Personal trading direction: - Trade is buy on dips. No short trade for me till nifty gives close below 8530.

Risk Advisory: - Invest based on your own analysis and own risk. This forum is only for discussion.

[anilsutarpune]

Week Ending: 24-07-2015.

Candlestick Pattern on weekly chart: - There is no pattern this week. Note this is not piercing patter, for piercing pattern close required is atleast below 50% of the previous green body in an uptrend.
Please note Nifty continues to be above 50 Weekly SMA. This is 3rd close above 50 WSMA. Few more weeks are required to confirm bullishness.

Individual candlestick analysis: - This week’s candle has relatively small red body indicating bears are showing presence and have managed to win this session. There is small upper and lower shadow indicating balance in the power. Shadows are not pointing to any specific possibilities for next week.

Looking at volume: - Volume is slightly higher than average but is more compared to previous session and is significantly more compared to size of body of candle. There is disconnect between price and volume. This is indication that there is lot of activity that has happed but price has not moved, supply and demand is high at this point. So watch for next few sessions.

Overall picture:- Overall picture continues to be Neutral with bullish bias. This is difficult to trade zone. For long term 8310 is key level

On daily chart there are two bullish patterns, head and shoulders and triangle both have broken on bullish side and market is now retesting the break point or neckline which is around 8460-8450. If this level is held on retest, near term target for Nifty is 8850. Hence this retest is critical.

Also if 8460-8450 is broken Nifty may again get in trading range between 8500 and 8310

Key levels for next week: - Support is at 8460, 8360, 8310, 8250, 8180 Resistance is at 8560, 8660, 8780, 8850

Personal trading direction: - 8460/50 is important level for me. Personal bias remains on bullish side but may take short positions with half volume based on where daily close is.

Risk Advisory: - Invest based on your own analysis and own risk. This forum is only for discussion.

[amitagg]

2 things

- would not the Thursday candle daily indicate bull trap
( follow up fri bar closed near low)
- would not higher volumes without weekly price movement indicate a distribution OR failure of bulls to hold price above 8560 etc since move has been up from 7940

While on daily there is Bullish inverted H and S ( which u have mentioned) there is also a bearish H and S at work since 9110 and markets are testing both necklines.....

Hence on daily fri closing it signalled a sell for one day candlestick traders
Now the "test" of 8440 shall provide more direction

[AMBY]

THANKS FOR UPDATE.

[amitagg]

[anilsutarpune]

Week Ending: 31-07-2015.

Candlestick Pattern on weekly chart: - Like Hammer but not hammer. Hammer need to come after down trend. But this is bullish candle. Candle is indicating pullback has been brought in to. Please note Nifty is above 50 week SMA for 5th week. This confirms that market has strength.

Individual candlestick analysis: - This is bullish candle. Candle has small green body indicating that bulls have managed to win the session. Long lower shadow indicates that lower prices have been rejected by bulls. Price dropped to a level which was attractive enough for bulls to participate in such a force that they have managed to close the price above the open!. There is small upper shadow but not much can be interpreted from upper shadow.

Looking at volume: - Volume is high. Volume is higher than average and compared to size of body it is significantly higher. There is disconnect between price and volume. In my opinion this was probably test of key levels to check level of supply or flush out any week hands. This sign of accumulation. This process may be repeated several times before market finally moves to the new high.

Overall picture:- Overall picture is still natural with bullish bias. Bullish bias is now strong. Market need to clear and then hold key resistance level to term bullish. But now tone is bullish. There were two significant achievements for bulls this week. One holding 8310 and Close above 8500. 8310 is important level from long term perspective. If 8310 is broken any time in future market is likely to test 8180 and then to 7950.

Levels from medium term perspective:- Resistance is at 8650, 8850, support is at 8310, 8180, 7900. Possibility of achieving target(8850) mentioned last week remains elevated
There is gap created at 8384 which will act as support.

Key levels for next week: - Resistance is at 8560, 8650, 8788, 8850, Support is at 8490, 8470, 8420, 8384(W), 8320

Personal trading direction: - Trade is buy on dips. No short trade for me.

Risk Advisory: - Invest based on your own analysis and own risk. This forum is only for discussion.
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