iCharts Discussions

[AjitS]

hi Anil,

Missing your analysis for week gone by.
What are the levels to watch out for this week?

[anilsutarpune]

Week Ending: 14-07-2015.

Wish you all happy independence day.

Candlestick Pattern on weekly chart: - There is no pattern. This is not a hammer. Hammer comes after down trend. Previous trend was not down hence this is not hammer. This is not hanging man as well, hanging man need to come at the top of trading range and nifty is in the middle of trading range.
But this is bullish candle and is testing 50 week SMA. Please note this is 8th week above 50 SMA but going nowhere.

Individual candlestick analysis: - This week’s candle has small black body indicating bears had marginal upper hand. Bears have managed to hold session. There is long lower shadow indicating strong participation from bulls at lower level, but the force was not strong enough to win the session. There is small upper shadow indicating higher prices are invitation to bears to participate. As mentioned previously shadow gives hint about future, and long lower shadow and small upper shadow is indication of bull’s strength.

Looking at volume: -This week’s volume is above average and compared to body of candle it is high. Hence an anomaly. This is an indication that price has not moved in proportion to volume. There is no conclusion that can be drawn, but selling and buying activity is high and once one side is exhausted price will move in the direction of stronger force.

Overall picture:- Overall picture is still neutral with bullish bias. Bullish bias is strong. Picture is still called neutral as nifty is not closing above 8640. But now we can say that 8350 -8310 is strong support area. There is a visible bullish triangle on weekly chart with measuring implication of 500 points giving target of 9000. Resistance near 8650 holds key for this move. So watch for 8650.
From long term perspective 8350-8310 is support zone. 8850-9000 is resistance zone. Still there is no sign of new top.

Key levels for next week: - Resistance is at 8650-60, 8790, 8850. Support is at 8460-70, 8370, 8350, 8310. Please note gap near 8380 is filled, it is no longer a window.

Personal trading direction: - For me only trade is buy on dips. No short. Minor failure at resistance will be used to exit long.

Risk Advisory: - Invest based on your own analysis and own risk. This forum is only for discussion.

[anilsutarpune]

Week Ending: 23-008-2015.

Candlestick Pattern on weekly chart: - There is no pattern. Candle is kind of shaven head. Has no upper shadow indicating lack of efforts from bulls to push price higher. Bulls are not willing to participate at higher price.
This week nifty has closed below 50 week SMA. This is important to note but has no major implication as of now as it is normal to close below and above the SMA before taking a clear direction.

Individual candlestick analysis: - This week candle has no upper shadow indicating lack of conviction from bulls at higher price. Candle has long black body indicating bears were in charge of session. Candle has lower shadow even though it is not that big it is indicating some sort of support level or participation form bulls at lower level. Buying is coming in at lower level.

Looking at volume: - Volume is above average. Compared to size of body of candle volume is consistent. There is no disconnect with volume giving indication that near term trend is down.

Overall picture:- Overall picture is still neutral. Close below 8310 has taken away any bullish bias that was there till last week. 8310 was important level, If nifty manages close above 8310 next week it will probably act as base for next few months.
8180 is next major support if taken out nifty may go down till 7950. On resistance size 8350, 8530,8650 will act as resistance in medium term

Key levels for next week: - Resistance is at 8330, 8350, 8430, support is at 8220, 8180, 8135, 8060

Personal trading direction: - Primary trade is buying on the dips, failure at resistance will be used to exit long positions.

Risk Advisory: - Invest based on your own analysis and own risk. This forum is only for discussion.

[lotus1810]

I love the way you analysed the Previous FALL in 2015 then on which gave exactly around 33 % retracement FALL. Now going forward looking back it looks like a mirror Image of the behaviour explained last year by you in this CONGESTION resistance area of 8720 giving same reflection and beyond.

Now from my viewpoint it could be a continuation rally to make double top around -9250-9450- maybe 10200 till Mar-2017 then complex correction like of 2010-2011 to severe shakeout whipsaws of weaker hands in 2013 and then massive rally. Same could be played out till Dec-2018. Will send you my updates of charts later in the day for sure. Your guidance in this is like a Lightning tower in SEA, your Analysis is a like a WALL on TIME Analysis.

The way you explain is awesome, DO - Keep it up..with your UPDATES as it's being missed a lot - So looking forward for your every week posts.


Thanks
PM

[anilsutarpune]

Week Ending: 28-08-2016.

Thank you for kind words PM. I will make an attempt to start this again.

Candlestick Pattern on weekly chart: - As such there is no textbook pattern. But one which matters is ‘Evening Star’.

Point to note:- Multiple hanging mans followed by doji and then bearish candle.

Evening Star is three candle pattern appears after an uptrend. Red candle should deeply penetrate the green candle. Middle candle can be a doji or spinning top. Here in case of Nifty we have two hanging man and one doji. Pattern started forming on 27-07. - Green candle, hanging man, hanging man, doji and then bearish close.

Pattern psychology goes like this – Market is in uptrend, bulls are in control creating green candle, bulls are happy. Then comes a doji indicating balance of power or bull loosing steam, followed by red candle indicating bears taking control.

Please note there are multiple Hanging mans in between, hanging man is not strong bearish pattern but the question is ‘how many times will market hang the bull?’ One, two, three. Question comes to my mind – is the bull so strong that it cannot be killed by hanging once? Or Bears are hanging dead body of bull thrice creating a trap?

We cannot rule out any scenario at this point hence it is time to be careful.

A weekly close below 8518 or to be safer side high below 8518 will give confirmation that this rally is over and we are entering a corrective phase. On bullish side close or to be safer side, low above 8728 will give indication that bull is alive kicking and very strong.

Nifty has closed just below 8 SMA.

Individual candlestick analysis: - This week we have bearish candle- Bothe upper and lower shadows are small and body is not that big but is noticeable. Mildly bearish

Looking at volume: -Volume is slightly above normal which provides validation of price action which is bearish. Please note volume on 25-07!

Overall picture:- Overall picture is still neutral with bearish bias based on above observations.

Key levels for next week: -
Support:- 8518, 8398, 8350. There is minor support near 8474.
Resistance:- 8630, 8665, 8728, 8850

Risk Advisory: - Invest based on your own analysis and own risk. This forum is only for discussion.

[AMBY]

Thank you for posting your view on nifty.

[anilsutarpune]

Week Ending: 02-09-2016.

!!Ganpati Bappa Morya !!

Candlestick Pattern on weekly chart: - No Pattern. Big green bullish candle. Bull is alive, kicking and strong.

Individual candlestick analysis: - This week we have a big green candle with small or almost no upper shadow and small lower shadow. Market traded just 2 points below previous weeks low and moved strongly up and closed near top of the range.

Point to note:- Nifty closed above 8 SMA.

Looking at volume:- Volume is high. There is no disconnect between price and volume. Volume is rising since last three weeks.

Overall picture:- Overall picture is still neutral with bullish bias. Market is clearly buy on dips going forward.

A 'low above' 8728 is indication that bull is really strong and market is buy on dips till the time we have close below 8728.

Support:- 8728,8624, 8518, 8398, 8350.
Resistance:- 8850, 8918, 8937, 9000


Personal recommendation := Avoid chasing price

Risk Advisory: - Invest based on your own analysis and own risk. This forum is only for discussion.

[vinay28]

[anilsutarpune]

Week Ending: 09-09-2016.

Candlestick Pattern on weekly chart: - There are two patterns. Gap, Shooting star resembling gravestone Doji.
This type of price Gap which comes after a rally and is usually an indication of exhaustion of the long trend.
This is almost classic shooting star. An ideal shooting start comes after a long uptrend, has small red body, almost no or small lower shadow and upper shadow which is at least twice the height of body. Red body is missing in this shooting star. This shooting start also resembles to a gravestone doji but body is slightly big to be boldly called as gravestone doji.
All these signs are of exhaustion leading to a pause, consolidation or reversal.

Individual candlestick analysis: - This week’s candle has very small lower shadow, small body and reasonable upper shadow. Close is higher than opening. Also low was made first and high was made later.

Point to note:- Nifty is still way above 8 SMA.

Looking at volume:- Volume is lower than previous week’s volume but above average . This was truncated week, keeping that in mid this is normal volume. This adds confirmation that shooting star should be considered seriously. This brings me back to last week’s volume, which was high. In retrospect high volume at top is indication of last swiping volume. More significantly this has happened twice once on 25th July and last week.

Overall picture:- Swiping volume at top, gap at top, and shooting star. All these are indication of exhaustion of trend. Out of these three events gap and shooting star is clear indication of exhaustion but previous week’s high volume is indication of correction. Please note volume is leading indicator usually 2-3 candles ahead of price.
So overall picture is still neutral with significant bearish bias. If the long term trend is intact then 8490-8475 should hold which is 38.2% retracement from 7700. If nifty starts closing below 8475 we may see significant pain.

Support:- 8728,8624, 8518, 8475, 8398, 8350.
Resistance:- 8850, 8918, 8937, 9000

Risk Advisory: - Invest based on your own analysis and own risk. This forum is only for discussion.

PS:- Thank you Vinay for last weeks correction

[anilsutarpune]

Week Ending: 16-09-2016.

Candlestick Pattern on weekly chart: - ‘Abandoned baby’ and gap . Actually to have abandoned baby pattern on chart gap is needed hence, only one pattern that is abandoned baby
Low of the shooting star is 8848.75 and high of this week’s candle is 8847.65 leaving gap of 1.10 points.
Abandoned baby is created when we have small candle at top which has gapped up and next candle is gapped down leaving gap again. This area represents a tight resistance including the area covered by abandoned candle. 8847.65-8968.70

This is bulls abandoned baby!!!

Individual candlestick analysis: - This week we have spinning top. Upper and lower shadows are larger than body and almost of same size. Body is green indicating bulls are still fighting and holdig. Spinning top indicate indecision. Market is balanced between bulls and bears. Directional move will come soon!

Point to note:- Nifty is still holding 8 SMA.

Looking at volume:- Volume is normal slightly more than last week’s volume. Spinning top with normal volume or low volume early in trend is usually indicating of balance or test.

Overall picture:- Overall picture is still neutral with significant bearish bias based on above commentary. Ideally red candle after abandoned baby is required for confirming trend reversal but in this case it is missing. Hence it is appropriate to wait and see if this gap is closed next week. If not, nifty will enter in normal correction.
It is still a question whether this is reversal from 7700 or 6800. There is no clue on chart indicating that it is reversal from 6800. Hence most likely it is reversal from only 7700. A normal correction could bring price near 8490-8475. Close below 8475 will raise question on long term trend.


Support:- 8728,8624, 8518, 8475, 8398, 8350.
Resistance:- 8850, 8918, 8937, 9000

Risk Advisory: - Invest based on your own analysis and own risk. This forum is only for discussion.


PS:- ‘Abandoned baby’ pattern is similar to island reversal in western technical analysis

[amitagg]

Great
Thanks

Only one question : how does move below 8475 will question long term trend

Contra points
1) if prices are still above 200 daily ema
2) normal reaction say 50 percent of 9000-7700 of 650 points itself leads to 8350 levels
3) can't market in long term trend give a 62 percent retrace
4) what if the count has to start from 6800 ( then margin of correction still gets bigger to call a counter trend fall movement still)

Like the preciseness of your posts

[anilsutarpune]

Week Ending: 23-09-2016.

Candlestick Pattern on weekly chart: - Spinning Top, Again!
Spinning top indicate indecision. Market is taking time to decide which way to go. Spinning top also indicate tight trading range.

Individual candlestick analysis: - This week’s candle is small and is a spinning top. Candle has slightly long upper shadow indicate resistance to higher prices at the same time has small lower shadow indicating support area. Body is green meaning bulls are still holding forte

Point to note:- Nifty is still holding above 8 SMA.

Looking at volume:- Volume is more than average volume. There is disconnect between price and volume. With above average volume price should move bit more which has not happened. This is sign of weakness in previous trend.

Overall picture:- Abandoned baby on chart, two back to back spinning tops and above average volume. All these signs are of pause, usually leading to directional move. Hence chart remains neutral with bearish bias. But also number of back to back green candles are indicative of strength. Hence unless key levels are broken trend will not change.

For long term 8475 or zone between 8500-8475 is critical. With sharp rally like these retracement level of 38.2% are common. Larger corrections like 61.8% are expected either early in the trend or at the end of trend. Hopefully market is just trying to correct sharpness of rally, if that is case only 38.2% is good enough, if correction is more than that longer term chart like monthly needs to be re-visited.

Support:- 8728,8624, 8518, 8475, 8398, 8350.
Resistance:- 8850, 8918, 8937, 9000

Risk Advisory: - Invest based on your own analysis and own risk. This forum is only for discussion.

[anilsutarpune]

Week Ending: 30-09-2016.

Candlestick Pattern on weekly chart: - Bearish Slash, evening star. Bearish shah happens when attack of bears is sharp enough to make opening lower than previous green candles closing, then for the rest of the session there is no attempt to cross opening price and closing is below the low of green closing. This is confirmation of bearish grip and indication of short term trend change. There is evening star which we have discussed many times.

Individual candlestick analysis: - Market opened below the previous close and traded down leaving no or very small upper shadow and big red body. Session was controlled by bears. These is visible lower shadow indicating support area and resistance to lower price.

Point to note:- Nifty closed well below 8 SMA.

Looking at volume: - Last weeks volume was very high. Significantly higher than any other week in resent past. There is no anomaly with price as price has move with volume.

Overall picture:- Overall picture is bearish in short term and neutral in long term. Market has started correction. There is no indication on chart that points toward deep correction hence hopefully this is normal correction. Hence key levels needs to be watched. 8500-8475 should hold otherwise deeper correction is expected

Support:- 8518, 8475, 8398, 8350.
Resistance:- 8683, 8728, 8850, 8918, 8937, 9000

In general, corrections are difficult to trade. Ideally corrections should only be traded by nimble and professional trades, most of them will still make losses.

Risk Advisory: - Invest based on your own analysis and own risk. This forum is only for discussion.

[lotus1810]

Might be a RBI Policy RESET- Stand off decision could take Nifty towards 8969 again but not crossing for all the Stop losses to trigger when all are negative and then again a complex correction could possibly start going forward for targets of your lower supports if Graveyard Doji weekly candlestick pattern holds true......

Awesome last 2 week analysis it did gave a nice 2nd Support bounce with your mentioned levels

Keep your unique art of analysis....


Thanks
PM

[anilsutarpune]

Week Ending: 30-09-2016.

Candlestick Pattern on weekly chart: - In theory it is bullish harmi and also an inverted hammer. Both these patterns are mixed in nature. Bullish harmi needs to appear after down trend. There is mild downtrend but trend is not convincing enough to consider bullish harami but fits definition. Bullish harami is indication of reduction in the selling pressure but is no way indication of the reversal, reversal requires confirmation.

Inverted hammer is mixed signal, when appears in early in new trend it is indication of indecisiveness.

Individual candlestick analysis: - This weeks candle have long upper shadow indicating rejection or supply at higher price. Candle also has small lower shadow which is not much significant but body is green indicating bulls managed to control session.

I want to bring your attention to upper shadows. Out of last 5 candles 4 have upper shadows which are longer than lower shadows. 8968-8852, 8847-8666, 8893-8788, 8806-8666, 4 shadows mentioned are covering area between 8847-8968. This is supply zone and unless supply is over further uptrend is difficult.

Point to note:- Nifty is still below 8 SMA also tested 8 SMA from inside and price is rejected.

Looking at volume: - Volume is above average. Inverted hammer early in downtrend with above average volume is indication that market is not willing to go lower or ripe to go lower. There are enough buyer and these buyers’ needs to be filled before continuing downtrend. This is indication of consolidation in the same range.

Overall picture:- overall picture is neutral with bearish bias based on above commentary. Market may consolidate before making the decisive move

Support:- 8635,8518, 8475, 8398, 8350.
Resistance:- 8683, 8728, 8850, 8918, 8937, 9000

In general corrections are difficult to trade. Be cautious.

Risk Advisory: - Invest based on your own analysis and own risk. This forum is only for discussion.
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