iCharts Discussions

[anilsutarpune]

Week Ending :- 26-12-2014
Pattern on Weekly Chart :- Inverted hammer:- There are two schools of thought about inverted hammer. One being bearish and other bullish! Let’s take it one by one.
Bearish School- Inverted hammer has long upper shadow indicating that bulls could not push the price higher and bears gained control pushing prices lower.
Bullish School- This long upper shadow of inverted hammer may have been created because bears are closing their last short positions, and bulls are yet to participate. If bulls step in there will be sharp up move.

Hence we must look at previous candle, in this case hammer, which was created a week before. Hammers are good indicator of support level. Now if these two candles are blended (merged together) they will create a high wave candle indicating market is in indecisive phase. Hence we must be patient and let market tell us which way they want to go.

In my opinion if market participant decides to go up -Index is Buy above 8255 with stop loss at 8198 possible target being 8367. And if market participant decides to sell – Index is Sell below 8160 with stop loss of 8226 possible down side target being 8087-if taken out then to 7956.
Area between 8255-8160 is no trade zone for any overnight positions.

In my personal opinion there is slightly higher probability of bullish scenario spanning out in short term as down trend was broken last week.

Weekly Support
8160
7956
7721
Weekly Resistance
8367
8402
8540
Risk Advisory :- Invest based on your own analysis and own risk. This forum is only for discussion

[bearandbull]

anilsutarpune,

I love the way you analyse it here, Keep it up..Looking forward for your every week posts, Its really good.

Thanks
BNB

[anilsutarpune]

Week Ending: - 02-01-2015
Pattern on Weekly Chart :- No Pattern. It is kind of Marubozu with upper shadow. Perfect Marubozu do not have and upper or lower shadow. Perfect Marubozu represents complete dominance by bears or bulls as the case may be.
The candle this week does not have any lower shadow meaning bears did not try to push down price too hard or aggressive short positions were not taken by the bears, making it easy for bulls to defend their territory. But small upper shadow indicate some selling is coming in at high price, this may be attributed to profit booking. But this means - there is supply coming at top!!!

Does this sound very bullish? No, I guess it is mildly bullish. This simply means that bears have not played their part this week! May be bears are enjoying holidays!!
Hence next week we must trade index with caution. If important support level is broken even on hourly chart (no need to wait for closing)it is better to book profit and close long positions. We can stand outside and watch for any clues market is giving.

If nifty trades below 8381 all long positions should be ideally closed and profit should be booked. If we hold 8381 successfully next target is 8498, for aggressive traders target could be 8538 with stop loss at 8366 .
There is no short trade if index fails at 8381. The entire zone between 8381and 8160 is no trade zone for overnight positions.
Index is Sell only below 8160 with stop loss of 8226 possible down side target being 8087 if taken out then to 7956.
Weekly Support
8367
8300
8160
7956
7721
Weekly Resistance
8410-8428
8498-8500
8540
Risk Advisory :- Invest based on your own analysis and own risk. This forum is only for discussion

[anilsutar1]

Week Ending :- 09-01-2015
Pattern on Weekly Chart :- There is no clear pattern.
First let me clarify this is not hammer. Hammer comes after down trend.
This week’s candle looks like a bearish piercing pattern. In theory last week’s opening is 3 points below the high of previous week. Hence is not a clear Bearish piercing pattern But body is deeply inside body of previous candle.
Can this be called a hanging man, Not quit. It is really not at the top of the trend and body is too big to qualify as hanging man but has long shadow.
So the candle is not clearly qualifying for any bearish name. But is pointing towards bearish patterns!!!
Bearish!!! Please look at the candle carefully - This week's candle has big red body indicating bears were incharge this week. But the candle also has very long lower shadow indicating lower prices were rejected and bulls are showing presence when prices are hammered by bears!!!!
So there is no clear trend at this moment. Looks like we may trade sideways for some time.
How should we trade in such situations? This kind of market conditions are not good for those who want to carry positions overnight or want to hold it for 3-4 days. So as far as possible overnight positions should be avoided and we should be willing to book profits as soon as our T1 is reached.
Important levels :-
Important levels to watch for any overnight positions are 8450 and 8195. For bulls- If 8450 is held for a day or so we may test 8540. For bears- if 8195 is broken then we may test 8065 and then to 7955.
Between 8450 and 8195 market is likely to be very choppy and may give good intraday trading opportunities but this zone is more risky for overnight positions or in general. So you may want to hedge overnight positions in this range. If you want to trade in this zone following level may help-watch market action at 8250-8237 if held successfully we may test 8324 then to 8376 to 8445. If nifty fails at 8250-8237 we may test 8150 then 8118 and then 8078.
On upper side 8376 looks difficult to break and on lower side 8150 and 8078 are strong supports. So watch out these numbers for reversals and position your intraday trade accordingly and ensure you have stop-loss order placed with your broker for every trade.
Risk Advisory :- Invest based on your own analysis and own risk. This forum is only for discussion.

[anilsutar1]

Week Ending: 16-01-2015
Candlestick Pattern on Weekly Chart :- There is No Pattern.
This week even if there is no pattern, this candle appears bullish. Candle has big green body showing that bulls were in- charge this week. Also there is very small upper shadow and little bit bigger lower shadow which is indication of bullishness. Usually in candle stick analysis body represent past and shadows points toward unfinished business. So looks like Bull still have some unfinished business.

There is possibility of blackout in Nifty as we have a 500 point triangle formed. There are few scenario that could play out in coming weeks.

First -Nifty fails between 8550-8650, that is Nifty is not able to hold firmly above these level and falls in the trading range of 8500- 8175 and trades sideway.
Second- Nifty fails at 8550-8650 and falls below trading range. In this case level to watch out will be 7965-7950.
Third- Bullish scenario where Nifty is able to hold 8650 firmly and completing and confirming triangle. This triangle is about 500 points so we and safely add 500 points to 8550 and target for nifty will be 9050.
Bias is toward third scenario.

Important levels to watch are – For bulls:- 8526 if cleared 8550 if held target is 8650. If 8650 is held we may see 9050.
For Bears:- 8360 if broken 8184

There is no short trade that can be carried overnight till 8360 is broken. Overnight long position should be held only after Nifty holds 8650 firmly. There is small possibility of false breakout.

Risk Advisory :- Invest based on your own analysis and own risk. This forum is only for discussion

[anilsutar1]

Week Ending: - 23-01-2015
Candlestick Pattern on Weekly Chart :- There is No Pattern.
This chart is very bullish. The breakout was successful as shown on chart last week. So target is still remains 9050.

As I mentioned in one of previous post that in candlestick analysis body represent past and shadow represents unfinished business. In this case shadows are small on both side and almost equal. So there is no indication market has given about what they want to do in next week.

This is difficult chart to analyse as this chart appears very bullish in an uncharted territory!!. As someone said ‘there is no upper target in bull market’ so putting a number is difficult and requires further analysis.

So what we need to check is strength of the trend rather that trying to put a target. The strength can be well analysed looking at price action with volume. Price action last week was very bullish and volumes were higher than normal. Hence this can be considered as very good bullish breakout indicating strong trend. So the intermediate trend is bullish.

But I want to point out that the short term trend on daily chart is not that strong. The bullish breakout on 20th is followed by three sessions with week intraday price action and higher volumes. Please note volumes on 21st , 22nd , 23rd were higher than that of 20th. This is a warning, a pullback or decline may be expected soon.

So levels to watch for next week are :- if we fail at 8875 support may come at 8765. Next support is at 8700, 8630 and 8532. If Nifty manages to hold these levels it may provide buying opportunities. Upside target remains at 9050, best case scenario may be at 9150.

Risk Advisory :- Invest based on your own analysis and own risk. This forum is only for discussion

[hiflyer]

[hiflyer]

Dear Anil,

You have mentioned that in candlestick analysis, body represents past while tails are unfinished business. Can you please explain this concept? It will be very helpful for newbie traders like me.

Thanks.

[anilsutar1]

[hiflyer]

[AMBY]

GOOD ANALYSIS.

THANKS,

[anilsutarpune]

Week Ending: - 30-01-2015
Candlestick Pattern on Weekly Chart :- Shooting star. Rather high volume Shooting Star.
This candle pattern has high reliability. But this does not mean that market will fall sharply from here. We need to look at chart in totality to arrive at possible scenario for next few weeks.
Shooting Star is pointing out that -high level of prices are getting rejected and some of the market participant are willing to take profit at this level( don’t add any extra word to this line!!!!). This is represented by long upper shadow. Body is small and red indicating bears are trying for control but are not in full control currently. There is a small lower shadow indicating there is small possibility of bull showing presence at lower price.

Take away from this analysis is 8996 may become new resistance and unless Nifty stays above 8996 firmly (closing required) we may not see nifty holding 9050 or 9160 levels.

Scenario 1
As mentioned above shooting star has high reliability. But bullish markets have tendency to test these levels twice before deciding further action. So if Nifty fails again in the range of 8875-9000, we may see a selling pressing mounting and some sort of consolidation or minor correction may start.
Scenario 2
8760, 8630 and 8535 are important levels to watch on down side. Here I want to point out something important. Two weeks ago Nifty had high volume breakout at 8630 and it is but natural for market to come back and test these levels to see if Nifty can hold 8630/8535 and then move up to reach and cross 9050/9160. So watch for this scenario.
Scenario 3
If Nifty turns down sharply 8360 and 8180 may act as good support

Personal bias is towards scenario 2

Risk Advisory :- Invest based on your own analysis and own risk. This forum is only for discussion

[anilsutarpune]

Week Ending: - 06-02-2015
Candlestick Pattern on Weekly Chart: - Completion of Evening Star (Three candle pattern). Red candle is penetrating halfway in the body of green candle. This is bearish candlestick pattern.

This three candlestick pattern is often seen when there is sharp rise in the price. The first green candle indicates hyper activities of bulls. The second candle tells that the bull is calming down or taking a pause and third candle tells bears are gaining control. The analysis of individual candlestick confirms this behaviour.

This week’s candle is red candle with not-so-big body indicating bears were in control, though marginally. There is very small shadow at the top and almost no shadow at bottom. The small upper shadow does not have much significance but almost no shadow at bottom indicate some bearish momentum.
Looking at volume – volume is not clearly pointing toward correction. Volume is high, but relative to price-fall it is bit higher indicating lot of buying and selling is happening also indicating some buyers are still shopping and there is still some resistance to lower price. So we better wait and watch.

Take away from this analysis: - Should we be looking for some sort of correction? I think the overall chart is still bullish and scenario 2 mentioned in last week’s analysis remains valid till the time 8533 is broken conclusively (daily closing below 8533 is required). Scenario 2 essentially means Nifty is trying to digest the last few weeks’ gains.
If 8533 is broken then we may see correction leading to scenario 3 mentioned in last week’s post.

Important levels that will help trading are 8572 and 8533. It would be wise to close short positions and sit outside if nifty starts holding 8572 or 8533 on daily chart. New trade can then be taken after observing market action at these levels.
Please try and avoid overnight long positions till 8840 is held on daily chart.
My personal bias is still towards scenario 2. If there is no clear trend at 8572 and 8533 I will prefer to sit out.
Risk Advisory :- Invest based on your own analysis and own risk. This forum is only for discussion

[anilsutarpune]

Week Ending: -13-02-2015.
Wish you happy valentine day. Hope Market loves you more this time!

Candlestick Pattern on Weekly Chart: - Bullish engulfing. In the down trend, body of previous candle is completely engulfed by green candle. This pattern is reversal pattern but is not very strong reversal pattern. But can be used as support and resistance with much higher success. Lowest low of the two candles will be new support.

Individual candlestick:- This is very bullish candle stick. This candle has big green body indicating bulls were firmly in control of the session. There is almost no upper shadow indicating insignificant resistance from bears. And long lower shadow indicates that bulls are rejecting lower prices.

Looking at volume: - Volume is little lower than previous week’s volume but is above average. So not much can be interfere from volume this week. My gut feel is someone has not participated last week, let’s see whether it was bulls or bears
Take away from this analysis: - Scenario 2 mentioned 2 weeks back is still valid and will be relevant till be have conclusive close below 8530. This scenario means Nifty is trying to digest gains of previous up move and once done will reach previous high or more.
Important levels :- If nifty is able to hold 8840 we may see 9050. If nifty fails at 8840 we may see 8575-8550.
My personal trade will be on bulls side.

Risk Advisory :- Invest based on your own analysis and own risk. This forum is only for discussion

[bharathi2005]

gm sir pls tell me NIfty is already @ 8805 so we can go for short? Thankyouv pls clear my dout