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OPEN INTEREST IN NIFTY OPTIONS |
yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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Post: #167  Posted: Wed Nov 20, 2013 8:04 pm Post subject: |
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Note:During my last post during trading hours for today at 12.50 i had mentioned in the end just for fun that "it might again go back to the bear's side and bulls might well be left standing"(my exact words at 12.50) and it happened just like that (nothing to boast about even i didn't feel that close to 3pm the fall will be so sharp and so much that it will sound like death knell for the bulls for today).
Options data for today suggests that 6200 pe has opened up on the downside with oi cut of -21,02,600 that's very huge unwinding along with it 6100 and 6000 pe has also witnessed some unwinding of 5 lakhs and 3 lakhs in oi respectively.Today's market at the end was a clear indicator that the bears are back and the bulls had started running helter skelter...seems like tomorrow might be the deciding day and tomorrow's closing will give the best signal of the coming days..why i am saying this..the reason is over and over i have heard 6000-6100 being key support and i feel that we are going to break it in coming days if not this series may be next.. i may be wrong but i never said i am an expert ..did i
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #168 Posted: Wed Nov 20, 2013 8:11 pm Post subject: |
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| yashrahul wrote: | | lakshay wrote: | | Hey look at historical data of 5700 put in August series on dates 13,14 & 16 August and eod price action in nifty chart. U might see something similar. |
What a comparison...keep up the good work..You are perfectly right,the pattern of nifty EOD then and now,oi data of 5700 pe and 6200 pe appears almost the same(6200 pe oi has lower oi of the two but it can't be identically same)..but still with historical data we can't be 100% sure but your comparison is very good...lets wait and watch whether it plays out the same way it did on those dates mentioned by you in the coming 1 or 2 days or it rewrites something new for itself in the coming days...best luck. |
lakshay:whatever u had said about 5700 pe,eod nifty chart and the same pattern happening now has slowly but surely started..tomorrow is the deciding day it has to break again and very badly..so best luck. |
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saumya12
Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Dec 2011
Posts: 1509
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| Post: #169 Posted: Wed Nov 20, 2013 11:31 pm Post subject: |
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| adwani1984 wrote: | HI
just wanted to know from where u r getting live OI data |
One can get live/realtime OI from ones trading terminal like NOW, NestTrader or Odin.
Just add/open the column of open interest, if it is not there, already. |
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #170 Posted: Thu Nov 21, 2013 10:02 am Post subject: |
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| Note:it is hardly 45 minutes or so since trade started today morning still the bears have become so fearless that they have started crushing the bulls...6100 call has added 12,43,900 in oi...lets wait and watch whether bears keep the onslaught going or bulls make a comeback. |
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #171 Posted: Thu Nov 21, 2013 12:25 pm Post subject: |
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| Note:Now at close to 12 things have gone worse for the bulls and are getting better and better for the bears...6100 ce which had added more than 12 lakh in oi at 10 am has added more than 20 lakhs by now at 12.10 pm..not only that 6000 call also has started seeing writing with more than 10 lakh addition in oi...6000 pe is also seeing some accumulation with addition of more than 6 lakh in oi..i am quite sure that 6100 ce and 6000 call is being written today but 6000 put is adding oi is it writing by bulls to save 6000 for the series or is it is a hedge by some FIIS or DIIS for saving their portfolio from the onslaught of the bears is what remains to be seen...as of now 6050 on nf has held twice..will it hold for the 3rd time today we will know by 3.30pm...just wait and watch today's close has huge significance for this series and markets in general...or an onslaught close to 3 pm like yesterday |
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #172 Posted: Thu Nov 21, 2013 11:27 pm Post subject: |
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Note:I had written yesterday in my post that somewhere i felt 6000-6100 support to get broken in this series or in the next series...but the bears are in hurry they didn't wait for that and the next day i see the level broken and the nifty getting closed below 6000.
Today's data shows that 6000 call,6100 call and 6200 call all have added more than 25 lakh,22 lakh and 15 lakh in oi...simlarly 5900 pe has also added more than 16 lakh in oi... the bulls who were very complacent till some days back have realised their mistake and have started accepting the truth the screen is showing them and hence we see 6200 put has shed more than 11 lakh shares in oi and 6100 put has shed more than 5 lakh in oi.....bears are back in full swing and everyday the bulls are losing very badly...tomorrow being friday markets are bound to be choppy...tomorrow i feel either we see a very bad close say 5900-5920 or flat by end of the day..lets wait and watch..one thing is for sure markets have become very interesting again... |
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #173 Posted: Fri Nov 22, 2013 5:35 pm Post subject: |
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Note:Yesterday i had mentioned while closing my daily note that "tomorrow i feel either we see a very bad close say 5900-5920 or flat by end of the day" and it closed flat today...the reason was very simple that yesterday 6000 call had added 25 lakhs in oi which i felt was very huge oi for such a in the money call hence i never felt that the markets will close up today either it had to close flat or down today...but today at one point in the afternoon the bulls were in full swing and even 6000 call had shed close to 3 lakh and 6000 put had added 15 lakhs that was the time i felt are the bulls coming back? but by evening it was in flat to mildly positive territory as was expected from options data yesterday.
For today 6100,6200 and 6300 call..all these three have added more than 10 lakh in oi...even 6000 put has also added 9 lakhs and 5900 put has also added close to 7 lakhs in oi...this nifty level is going to see a battle between the bulls and bears but the way market fell today from 6050 Nifty spot levels the bears are going to win this battle it seems unless some unexpected announcements to help the bulls are made..next weekend as expiry is round the corner and volatility will be at its peak best luck
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #174 Posted: Mon Nov 25, 2013 11:10 am Post subject: |
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| Heavy writing going on in 6100 and 6000 put with addition of more than 13 lakhs in oi of 6000 and addition of more than 16 lakh in oi in 6100 pe...6000 call has witnessed a cut of 13 lakhs in oi...the bulls are trying defend the 6000 level for this series...lets wait and watch for EOD figures today after 3.30 for clear picture but as of now bulls are trying their level best...but everyday is a challenge till expiry now as the market will turn very volatile till expiry on thursday... so watch out |
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #175 Posted: Mon Nov 25, 2013 7:42 pm Post subject: |
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| Note:6000 put has added more than 17 lakhs in oi and 6100 put has added more than 23 lakhs in oi and not only that along with it 6000 call has shed more than 23 lakhs and 6100 call has shed more than 11 lakhs in oi....markets are trying to move higher with short covering closer to expiry but with volatility remaining on the higher side what remains to be seen is whether the short covering continues for tomorrow as well or today's rally fizzles out in one or two days...options data is very much in favor of bulls today but as seen earlier it hardly takes time for the bears to take over... |
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #176 Posted: Tue Nov 26, 2013 11:43 am Post subject: |
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| Slight hint that the bears are back and the bulls are on the back foot...6100 and 6200 call being written with addition of 10 lakhs in oi...but 6100 put not yet cutting oi..lets wait for some more time and see how the options data changes...whether 6100 put cuts oi and we start moving down or 6100 put adds oi and we remain sideways..lets see... |
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lakshay
White Belt
Joined: 04 Oct 2011
Posts: 39
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| Post: #177 Posted: Tue Nov 26, 2013 9:30 pm Post subject: |
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| yashrahul wrote: | | Slight hint that the bears are back and the bulls are on the back foot...6100 and 6200 call being written with addition of 10 lakhs in oi...but 6100 put not yet cutting oi..lets wait for some more time and see how the options data changes...whether 6100 put cuts oi and we start moving down or 6100 put adds oi and we remain sideways..lets see... |
Plsss correct me if i am wrong but from what i have noticed open interest gives no predictive indication......it seems to be a lagging indicator just like moving average crossover which shows up after move is already done.
have you seen some predictiveness too? |
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #178 Posted: Tue Nov 26, 2013 10:17 pm Post subject: |
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| lakshay wrote: | | yashrahul wrote: | | Slight hint that the bears are back and the bulls are on the back foot...6100 and 6200 call being written with addition of 10 lakhs in oi...but 6100 put not yet cutting oi..lets wait for some more time and see how the options data changes...whether 6100 put cuts oi and we start moving down or 6100 put adds oi and we remain sideways..lets see... |
Plsss correct me if i am wrong but from what i have noticed open interest gives no predictive indication......it seems to be a lagging indicator just like moving average crossover which shows up after move is already done.
have you seen some predictiveness too? |
Yes |
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #179 Posted: Tue Nov 26, 2013 10:22 pm Post subject: |
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Note: Very interesting... 2 days to go to expiry and 6100 put and 6000 put shed more than 10 lakh in oi with 6100 call adding more than 10 lakh in oi...bears were just around the corner..they are back and trying to take command...next 2 days very interesting..  |
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thalapathy
White Belt
Joined: 04 Mar 2013
Posts: 27
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| Post: #180 Posted: Tue Nov 26, 2013 10:38 pm Post subject: yashraful sir |
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| sir plz, shall i take long or short tomorrow |
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