iCharts Discussions

[yashrahul]

thalapathy:Sorry, options data is very vague.. it cannot be very specific hence i can't tell you to take any calls or puts in the market on the options data,there are very good experts on icharts...please ask them

[yashrahul]

Note:6050 call has added more than 11 lakh in oi...expiry has to be in the range of 6000 and 6100 ...but i feel nifty closing more towards 6000 than 6100, reason being with one day left for expiry 6050 call adding such high oi..if it is not a huge gap up or gap down owing to some unforeseen event then 6000 or 5980 is my call for close for tomorrow but let's wait till tomorrow 3.30......

[yashrahul]

Note:Markets closed at 6091 or so owing to gap up in the morning..in the afternoon at one point of time it did move down but bounced back quickly to recover and close at close to 6100 level...now the start of december series from tomorrow...just a watch on all the strike prices and as of now the three strike prices with highest oi are
1.6000 put
2.6300 call and
3.6500 call...very interesting

lets see..the series has just begun...

[yashrahul]

Note: 6000 and 6100 put adds close to 7 lakh in oi,similarly 6400 and 6500 call has also added 6 and 5 and a half lakh in oi...is this writing remains to be seen in the coming days...maybe the puts are a genuine hedge taken by those who want to safeguard their portfolio as at these levels markets generally don't sustain...it is just the start of a new series there are very important events lined up in this month..so be ready

[yashrahul]

At 11.26 am in the morning,nifty is up 48 points...interesting fact is the puts have shed very little premium for ex:6100 put previous close is 87.15 and now after nifty rallying 48 points or so the put is currently trading at 84.55....vix is also very high and is continuously rising it is up 1.74 at 23.12...either we are about to witness a big fall today or in a day or two or a breakout(which seems unlikely as the data points to a fall in general as of now)..lets wait for today's closing at 3.30 for clear idea...

[lakshay]

am short in futures since friday's close. let us see what happens.

[yashrahul]

Note:From 6300 to 6700 all the calls have added oi of close to 5 to 6 lakhs.Puts have not added much oi except 6200 put.Volatility has shot up by 8% or so and put premiums are not losing much value even though the markets are moving higher...brace yourself for some very high volatility in the coming weeks.

[yashrahul]

Note:Markets are getting ready for state election results,US employment data etc,both calls and puts are adding oi and along with that there is surge in premium of both calls and puts...coming monday opening will be make or break for the markets...India vix ie the volatility index kept on surging today and then cooled of a little but still managed to remain high at the End of the Day.Markets are trading in a very narrow range and this range has to be broken...upside or downside..lets wait and watch(do we have a choice)..

[yashrahul]

Note:Markets have become very volatile but certain points noteworthy today as compared to yesterday..6200 put adds close to 7 and half lakhs in oi and 6400 call adds close to 6 lakhs in oi..along with it 6100 put sheds oi of 48000...difficult to predict but since markets closed down and that to trying to go above 6250 Nf..failing once and just reaching above and then retracing second time..bears are slowly gaining the upper hand...the real test for both bulls and bears will be on monday...as i am maintaining for the past 2 or 3 days..see we are not left with much choice lets wait and watch

[chandrujimrc]

Dear yashrahul,

With your permission a msg posted in money control.

Anuj Singhal The India Volatility Index (VIX) has gained 19 percent in the last four sessions. Normally, this would have meant the market had declined during this period. That is because the movements in VIX and the market are inversely co-related, more often than not. But this time around, the Nifty has risen alongside VIX, gaining 2.4 percent in the last four sessions. So what’s happening here? The most obvious explanation is the fact that the market is looking at Sunday’s assembly election results as a binary event – something which can move the Nifty by 300 points or more, on either side. And traders are either taking guard, or trying to ride the swing with minimum risk. Also Read: Elections results to have short-term impact on mkt, says IIFL The biggest example of this was the rise in put option premiums of ‘out-of-money’ strikes like 5800 when the Nifty rallied nearly 50 points on Monday. Even yesterday, premiums for ‘at the money’ call and put options rose sharply. A glance at the top strikes with highest Open Interest also reflects market expectations of a big move. Both 5500 Put and 6700 Call have very high Open Interest. Foreign institutional investors alone have net bought Rs 4,000 crore in Index options in last 3 days. While some of this is explained due to early series phenomenon where FIIs hedge their positions, this amount of Rs 4,000 crore is clearly staggering. The 6200 straddle is trading at a premium of Rs 320, which again is very high. In fact after a long time I am seeing almost an Infosys kind of trade playing out on the Nifty. And just for record, the last time the volatility saw this kind of spike actually led to the markets bottoming out in August. It will be interesting to note if this spike would be led by a topping out of market.

[yashrahul]

[yashrahul]

Note:Today in morning trade most of the puts lost premium ranging from 50 to 35 percent and by evening the turn was that of the calls..most of the calls had started losing their premium with deep otm calls like 6700 call trading in the negative..6400 call has seen heavy writing of close to 14 lakhs in oi...all the other markets except ours have started trading lower with some like European markets losing some ground everyday for the past 3 or 4 days..in such an atmosphere it remains to be seen whether we can touch all time high..i stick my neck out and say no,we can't close above all time high in the coming days...but who knows Non farm payroll data from US tomorrow and the election results on sunday might turn out to be in bull's favour and with FIIs by bulls side anything is possible..i am no expert and in these markets even experts are running for cover...hence i say once more what i am saying for the past 4 to 5 days...wait and watch..

[yashrahul]

Note:Huge oi built up seen in most of the calls from 6300 to 6700 ...it doesn't seem these calls were written..they have been bought is what one can say as the premium has surged in most of them even though the market has not gained much today...6300 call shows the maximum oi addition today with 11 lakhs..

as mentioned through out the week..wait and watch is over now the action starts from monday..best luck

[yashrahul]

Note:open interest addition of more than 11 lakhs in 6400 put and more than 8 lakhs in 6300 and 6200 put along with it calls from 6200 to 6500 have cut oi...the event of state elections is over and hence calls have started losing oi...puts are adding oi...whether they are adding oi due to writing or genuine buying will be clearer in the coming days as today was the first day after the event....many have started predicting nifty targets of 7000 and 7200...this is the best time to be extremely cautious..one of the factor for those who are bullish is this time i feel our INR is quite stable...Cheers to all irrespective of individual positions as the market has hit a new high

[rk_a2003]

How to know whether primarily puts or calls are dominated by writers or buyers when OI surges in particular strike price. I don't think there is a straight forward answer for this.

Even one may argue that for every buyer there is a seller for every seller there is a buyer. Then how can we say that calls are written or puts are written.

There is few ways that we might be able to decode. If the premium is sky rocketing along with OI surge we may ....I reiterate ..we may think that it is the market makers who are writing.

The post on 7th said that 6300 calls OI added up to 11 lakhs and also said because of huge premium we may think that they were bought. I think the fact might be exactly opposite.

Look at today's 6300 call which closed almost flat even after the Nifty surged up to 104 points. That's a clear indication that market makers are not going to let the premium of 6300 call to go up, they already jacked up it's price citing a huge demand for it. The buyers who brought them in anticipation of assembly results were caught for the reason that calls were already discounted the gap up event with huge premium; Now they will get frustrated and may not get much benefit with their calls.