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OPEN INTEREST IN NIFTY OPTIONS |
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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Post: #196  Posted: Mon Dec 09, 2013 9:39 pm Post subject: |
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| rk, I am not sure I agree with you. buyers and sellers (qty) is always same but price falls when trend is down and rises when trend is up. this is because buy/sell orders get placed at lower or higher level depending upon trend. in case of options, if price is going up with Oi, it is obviously been bought. intraday swings in options are difficult to track and hence if trend is reversing intraday, change in oi can be high with almost constant price. only net oi EOD can tell net change. only intraday chart can give some hint |
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #197 Posted: Mon Dec 09, 2013 10:22 pm Post subject: |
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| rk_a2003 wrote: | How to know whether primarily puts or calls are dominated by writers or buyers when OI surges in particular strike price. I don't think there is a straight forward answer for this.
Even one may argue that for every buyer there is a seller for every seller there is a buyer. Then how can we say that calls are written or puts are written.
There is few ways that we might be able to decode. If the premium is sky rocketing along with OI surge we may ....I reiterate ..we may think that it is the market makers who are writing.
The post on 7th said that 6300 calls OI added up to 11 lakhs and also said because of huge premium we may think that they were bought. I think the fact might be exactly opposite.
Look at today's 6300 call which closed almost flat even after the Nifty surged up to 104 points. That's a clear indication that market makers are not going to let the premium of 6300 call to go up, they already jacked up it's price citing a huge demand for it. The buyers who brought them in anticipation of assembly results were caught for the reason that calls were already discounted the gap up event with huge premium; Now they will get frustrated and may not get much benefit with their calls. |
I only trade in(nifty) index options in one or two lots(either i buy it or sell),i keep on following the calls and puts where there is huge oi built up...prior to coming on i charts i generally used to follow oi data along with some other indicators...if someone wants to understand whether a certain call is written or bought just look at the oi and price movement,observe it through out the day whenever He/She has time simultaneously with some level of nifty future and u will start getting some idea..do it over one or two years (like i am doing it but not good at it still) and then one can make an attempt...as the data is vague one can't be sure...but all through out ever since i started this post i have been maintaining that options data is vague and can't be definitive...
Whether 6300 call was written or bought on 7th and has not gone up ...in 9 out of 10 times the addition of 11 lakh in oi is generally writing but on that day i felt the calls were bought as the price movement suggested so and also there was no price erosion...a event was about to happen ...i feel i was not entirely wrong as if 6300 call was written on that day nobody could have got a chance to get out today...look at the puts today... |
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #198 Posted: Tue Dec 10, 2013 5:23 pm Post subject: |
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| Note:Deep otm calls have started shedding oi...6300 put adds more than 7 lakhs in oi.....it is being written for sure..there was huge erosion of premium even though the markets were going down....too much complacency on the part of the bulls...most of the people are short or don't believe in this rally i feel hence the markets are going up and bulls have become so complacent...negative figures from FIIS continuously when it happens will be the only way i feel that the markets will come down..yesterday's top is the level in the immediate future to watch out for as long as nifty doesn't cross it bears always have a chance of coming back sooner than later.. |
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #199 Posted: Wed Dec 11, 2013 6:16 pm Post subject: |
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Note:6300 put and 6200 put is being written for sure and some those who have written 6400 call bought them back hence 6400 call opened up during closing time and cut oi ..6300 put saw huge price erosion during the last 30 minutes or so..this has been the trend over the past 2 days or so..even though the market is drifting down the puts are not appreciating at all in fact they are seeing price erosion every day...if it would have been deep out of the money put one would have understood it as timevalue in this series but we are talking about 6300 put ... fomc decision..our credit policy all lined up next week but still 6300 put instead of appreciating is depreciating...  |
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #200 Posted: Thu Dec 12, 2013 9:17 pm Post subject: |
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| Note:What was depreciating yesterday(Read Yesterday's note) and left me surprised me yesterday... sky rocketed today..boom...and almost doubled from yesterday....6300 put and 6200 put is what i am talking about...today's options data shows the bears are back and are busy writing 6300 call for today with addition of more than 11 lakhs in oi ..right now the bulls are on the back foot ...the bears are trying to make a comeback lets see if 6200 level on the nifty holds for tomorrow... |
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #201 Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:33 am Post subject: |
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| Note:Bears are back...6300 call and 6200 call are being written with addition of more than 12 lakhs in oi in 6300 call and more than 7 lakhs in 6200 call..along with it 6200 put ad 6300 put is shedding oi meaning bulls are slowly covering the put of 6200 and 6300 which they had written aggressively some days back...depends on EOD figures of today but as of now at close to 11.30 am bears are in full on mode...markets have come down continuously in the past 3 to 4 days and today is friday...so trade cautiously but options data at 11.30 or so options data is bearish....may change in some time who knows... |
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #202 Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2013 6:47 pm Post subject: |
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Note:6300 call adds more than 15 lakhs in oi and 6200 call adds more than 11 lakhs in oi...6300 put has shed more than 7 lakhs and 6200 put has shed more than 4 lakhs in oi..calls are being written and puts which were written heavily some days back have started unwinding...markets have gone down continuously and many are expecting a bounce back..options data doesn't point to any sustainable bounce back...options data is vague and changes fast..just like the news on business channels... some days back i heard 6600 on the nifty soon..now i hear 5900 on the nifty soon  |
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #203 Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2013 9:25 pm Post subject: |
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Note:6200 call and 6300 call is being written and 6100 put and 6000 put is being bought....bears have the upper hand...a bounce back is on the cards but whether it will sustain or not remains to be seen...markets are confused ... INDIA'S credit policy and USA fomc meet will decide further direction in this series...if both of them are negative then we could see levels of 6000 easily as overall the markets appear weak..looking at options data if one were to suggest then the market is fully bearish going into these two very important events and a neutral or slightly positive news can also trigger heavy short covering.
If both the events were not lined up and one would have looked at only the options data then the markets were definitely coming down but with these two very important events we have to wait for the outcome for further direction whether up or down  |
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #204 Posted: Tue Dec 17, 2013 7:58 pm Post subject: |
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Note:Markets are drifting lower slowly waiting for the 2 big events to unfold...no big put writing seen and no big call writing either...it seems as if everyone is in wait and watch mode...market appears weak but if the events turn out to be positive it seems markets will get a reason to regain strength...lets wait and watch..  |
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #205 Posted: Wed Dec 18, 2013 11:26 pm Post subject: |
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Note:Bulls were back today with full force...6200 put is written heavily today with addition of more than 16 lakhs in oi..6200 call has also cut oi of 2 and half lakh...one event has turned out to be unexpectedly positive...if the second event also turns out to be unexpectedly positive then the markets will zoom ahead into the new year..as of now it seems market is trying to get out of the bearish grip which had started over the last 10 days...let the 2nd event unfold for clear direction..best luck..  |
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #206 Posted: Thu Dec 19, 2013 10:51 am Post subject: |
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| Note:6200 call is being written heavily with addition of more than 16 lakhs in oi... |
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #207 Posted: Thu Dec 19, 2013 6:21 pm Post subject: |
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| Note:6200 call is being written heavily with addition of more than 18 lakhs in oi...6200 put and 6100 put has shed oi but 6000 put till now has not shed any oi..bears are back and the bulls have surrendered it seems..too early to say but with the start of taper..stubborn inflation...low gdp and such other factors it does seem that the expected santa rally during the end of the year has fizzled out or do the bulls still have some trump cards which will fuel the year end rally up their sleeve..we will wait for the year to end for better clarity...options data doesn't suggest so but we are talking about sudden things unknown... just like RBI not hiking rates unexpectedly and FED starting taper unexpectedly.. |
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #208 Posted: Fri Dec 20, 2013 12:38 pm Post subject: |
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| Note:Is a santa rally coming or what...why has 6200 call cut more than 8 lakhs in oi and 6200 put added more than 17 lakhs in oi...6230 in ns and 6250 nf are crucial resistances markets can fall back but options data suggests santa rally could be coming or watch for 6200 for today and lets wait for EOD figures for confirmation... |
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #209 Posted: Fri Dec 20, 2013 9:35 pm Post subject: |
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| Note:As i had mentioned in today afternoon's note a santa rally has started all of a sudden..it was very much visible in the afternoon when i wrote my note....this series it seems unlikely that the 6200 level will be breached unless something untoward happens till expiry...look at the options data today it is opposite of what it was yesterday..bulls are back in full force...6200 put has added more than 21 lakhs in open interest and 6300 put has added more than 14 lakhs in open interest..6200 call has shed more than 19 lakhs and 6300 more than 11 lakhs in open interest...with hardly any days remaining for expiry the markets have taken the bears by surprise this series..lets see what the bulls did today will the bears be able to do it before the december series expiry otherwise this expiry will definitely be above 6200 |
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chandrujimrc
Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Apr 2009
Posts: 1683
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| Post: #210 Posted: Fri Dec 20, 2013 9:42 pm Post subject: |
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Dear yashrahul,
NF closed above Y"day high,but Call options are not crossed the Y"day high,why? |
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