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OPEN INTEREST IN NIFTY OPTIONS |
sonshu101
White Belt
Joined: 24 Nov 2011
Posts: 79
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Post: #256  Posted: Mon Jan 13, 2014 9:54 am Post subject: |
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A good fight between Bulls and bears. 6200 PE and 6300 CE has very good open interest  |
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #257 Posted: Mon Jan 13, 2014 10:52 am Post subject: |
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| sonshu101 wrote: | | A good fight between Bulls and bears. 6200 PE and 6300 CE has very good open interest |
Sonshu:There is no fight going on bulls have already won today...all we have to see is whether bears are going to make a comeback....heavy put writing seen in 6200 put and also subsequent cut in oi in 6200 call clearly indicating that bulls are going to defend 6200 now...what remains to be seen is whether the put writers of today are ready to carry their positions after End Of Day(EOD) or are the put writers going to run away just like they did on friday...markets is poised for a strong close options data suggests so now at 10.48 am...wait for EOD options data(especially if 6200 put writers now carry their writing positions and 6200 call writers also leave their positions will only be known at EOD) and today's close for better clarity... |
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sonshu101
White Belt
Joined: 24 Nov 2011
Posts: 79
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| Post: #258 Posted: Mon Jan 13, 2014 11:00 am Post subject: |
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| yashrahul wrote: | | sonshu101 wrote: | | A good fight between Bulls and bears. 6200 PE and 6300 CE has very good open interest |
Sonshu:There is no fight going on bulls have already won today...all we have to see is whether bears are going to make a comeback....heavy put writing seen in 6200 put and also subsequent cut in oi in 6200 call clearly indicating that bulls are going to defend 6200 now...what remains to be seen is whether the put writers of today are ready to carry their positions after End Of Day(EOD) or are the put writers going to run away just like they did on friday...markets is poised for a strong close options data suggests so now at 10.48 am...wait for EOD options data(especially if 6200 put writers now carry their writing positions and 6200 call writers also leave their positions will only be known at EOD) and today's close for better clarity... |
Yes Rahul. The OI addition was not huge at 6200 PE when i checked but now its huge which is favoring bulls. Lets See how it goes by EOD.
One thing, do you consider price of option which has high OI addition as technically as 6200 PE is 58 so bulls are safe till 6142 as OI addition today is whopping. |
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #259 Posted: Mon Jan 13, 2014 6:55 pm Post subject: |
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Note:The bulls are back and are trying to defend 6200 for this series...it is very clear that 6150 being broken in this series is unlikely...only if an unknown very big event happens which rattles the market only then 6150NS breaks otherwise it is very very difficult to break 6150NS for this series...today the addition of oi is more than 21 lakhs in 6200 put and further confirmation is unwinding of more than 9 lakhs of oi in 6200 call...such strong performance generally means that 6150 will be very difficult to break in this series...today the options data is fully in the favor of the bulls...Now the ultimate test for the bulls in the coming days will be to sustain above 6250 first then to close above 6300 on EOD basis and after closing above 6300 on EOD basis..try and sustain above 6300 which has been impossible for nifty too do for the past many many years...
today's unexpected rally will definitely cause short covering in the coming days if the bulls can sustain for 2 or 3 days at these levels..but like we saw last time if the volumes dry out and all the global markets are falling the way they are now then february will be the month to watch out for..as for january today's rally has saved the bulls and 6150NS should hold or at the most close the month on expiry at closer to 6150NS if nothing untoward and unexpected rattling event happens...but first lets see this week's close if it closes above 6250NS..its monday today and we have just started... |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #260 Posted: Mon Jan 13, 2014 7:18 pm Post subject: |
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| just for your info., 5800pe for feb did not make a new low even though NF rose by 40 from morning high. |
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #261 Posted: Mon Jan 13, 2014 7:36 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | just for your info., 5800pe for feb did not make a new low even though NF rose by 40 from morning high. |
Vinay28: february will be the month to watch out for"..i have already mentioned it by looking at the options data of february....but thanks for your info....as always |
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #262 Posted: Tue Jan 14, 2014 9:37 am Post subject: |
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| Yesterday 6200 put added more than 21 lakhs in oi..if the market has to go below 6200 first and foremost 6200 put will start shedding oi...till that doesn't happen 6200 on the nifty won't break...when the oi cut will be more than 10 lakhs or so on EOD basis then we can say the markets are going to go down in the next 2 or 3 days..till that time bulls are safe i presume till 6200 nifty.... |
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #263 Posted: Tue Jan 14, 2014 11:45 am Post subject: |
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| 6300 and 6400 call adding huge oi....upside getting capped at 6300..now 6200 put should start unwinding that is losing oi...if not today then tomorrow...this week's close will give us the correct trend in the coming weeks...wait for today's EOD options data and today's close first... |
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #264 Posted: Tue Jan 14, 2014 11:52 am Post subject: |
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| today Bank nifty is trying to be stronger as of now and hence the nifty unable to break easily i feel ...bank nifty is going to be the trend decider today if bank nifty future breaks its low of 11002 today then it will be easier for the bears to break the nifty i feel....i might be wrong...it is my personal view...ask the experts |
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #265 Posted: Tue Jan 14, 2014 11:57 am Post subject: |
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| one more observation in which i might be totally wrong...6100 call for january which is atleast 150 points on the nifty from where we are now has started cutting oi..till now it has cut 1,43,150...is it unwinding by FIIS as they don't see the markets rally any further...i might be wrong and it might be exactly opposite..but we have to watch out for it |
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #266 Posted: Tue Jan 14, 2014 6:14 pm Post subject: |
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Note:6300 and 6400 call adds more than 5 lakhs in oi and 6200 and 6300 put have just marginally shed oi..such marginal shedding of oi cannot be taken too seriously...6200 put should cut more than 10 lakhs in oi on EOD basis let's wait and watch whether it happens ...6000 put has shed oi of more than 4 lakhs in oi and 6100 call has shed 1,65,000 in oi...6100 call losing 10% of oi when the market had a huge rally yesterday assumes significance..these were not call writers but i feel they were genuine buyers..then why did they sell their calls?...some experts feel 6100 calls were sold and higher calls might have been bought but somehow i disagree with this view...we will know by the end of the week the answer to this...lets see where the markets close at the end of the week...friday's close will give us the further trend i feel....today's options data tells me that 6150 is not that safe...i might be totally wrong...best luck  |
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #267 Posted: Wed Jan 15, 2014 6:53 pm Post subject: |
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Note:Bulls have won and bears will for now have to wait....6300 put and 6200 put shows huge open interest addition of more than 10 lakhs in oi and 6200 call and 6300 call has cut oi...bulls have managed to do take the nifty above 6300..now lets see whether they are able to hold it above 6300 till friday and close above it on weekly closing..it seems the bulls will be able to do even that.....lets wait and watch whether nifty sustains above these levels and closes above 6300 on weekly close....  |
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lakshay
White Belt
Joined: 04 Oct 2011
Posts: 39
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| Post: #268 Posted: Wed Jan 15, 2014 7:35 pm Post subject: |
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| market has gained momentum.... but it made your habit to be in wait and watch mode |
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PS Trader
White Belt
Joined: 22 Sep 2013
Posts: 101
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| Post: #269 Posted: Thu Jan 16, 2014 1:11 pm Post subject: |
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| seems calls are unwinding. What are your thoughts for now? market is going to go beyond 6370 today? |
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yashrahul
Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013
Posts: 512
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| Post: #270 Posted: Thu Jan 16, 2014 1:31 pm Post subject: |
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PS Trader:Markets are not going to go to 6370 today...at least now at 1.20 in the afternoon the options data doesn't suggest so...i can see 6300 call adding 8 lakhs in oi...it is being written for sure...markets are going into that mode of 25 december to 2nd january...where the volumes were low and markets went nowhere...after all the premiums of both calls and puts have to be gulped...  |
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