iCharts Discussions

yashrahul · Yellow Belt Joined: 29 Jun 2013 Posts: 512

Note:I am tired of mentioning the opposite stuff every alternate day..i can't help it options data has pointed to a very very deep correction one day and a very very superb rally the next day...the premiums being very low and the markets going no where the writers of both calls and puts have become very complacent for the past 3 months or so...

today again the 6200 and 6300 puts have added huge oi...it seems writing...the premium has fallen a lot in 6200 put and 6300 put....6200,6300 and 6400 calls have cut oi giving an indication of further up move ...the premium has fallen a lot in 6200 put and 6300 put..i was expecting a deep correction to levels of 6000 or below but options data has turned about to be totally opposite today...bulls are back....tomorrow again the bears will be back..then the bull..then the bears...it really means that all the nifty option traders who have bought calls and puts will lose money...FIIS and institutions who generally have loads of money with them and write the calls/puts will make money ...general people like me will agree but those with inflated egos won't agree..do you agree with my view or not...

Gemini · White Belt Joined: 28 Apr 2009 Posts: 166

Thanks for meticulously updating the thread with latest options data and your observations.

You may observe that 1. Nifty ADX (14) value is less than 20 (indicating rangebound activity) 2. Nifty BB (20) width is very low (tight band). In my personal opinion, these are indications of some major movement soon(lull before storm).

May be your analysis of options data will guide us to be in the direction of that movement. !

yashrahul · Yellow Belt Joined: 29 Jun 2013 Posts: 512

yashrahul · Yellow Belt Joined: 29 Jun 2013 Posts: 512

6200 put witnessing some cut in oi...6200 call is also cutting oi...6400 call is being written and adding oi...

yashrahul · Yellow Belt Joined: 29 Jun 2013 Posts: 512

Note: Options data is confusing today...6300 put has not cut oi but 6200 put has cut oi..6200 and 6300 call has cut some oi..6400 and 6500 calls are written for sure...all in all confusing and boring market.. Confused

yoginishreyas · White Belt Joined: 03 Dec 2012 Posts: 80

Hi yashrahul,

I follow your OI analysis, Keep up good work, I think it is now Make or break levels. Highest OI is still at 6300 and 6300Put has added 13Lcs shares which is I believe writing in Puts. lets see..I could be wrong, I am learning to read OI after all from your thread only. Very Happy

Thanks
Shreyas

yashrahul · Yellow Belt Joined: 29 Jun 2013 Posts: 512

yashrahul · Yellow Belt Joined: 29 Jun 2013 Posts: 512

Today my analysis might be totally wrong and i am saying this against the trend(i am bearish on the markets hence i might be thinking that way)....i can see huge addition of oi at 6300 put but the premium is not going down..markets are preparing for a huge rally or a huge fall by close today....bank nifty is looking amazingly strong now at 11.15 am or so hence a rally is very well possible..options data points to a huge move ahead...Bulls will obviously say that it is going to be a big rally...might be they are correct but i felt like adding this point..hence wrote this..obvious things don't generally happen in the markets...either we are going to see 6350 or 6250 today...Today's close matters..wait for Eod options data and today's close(very very important)..either the bulls will be dancing or the bears will be by close....I might be Totally Totally wrong today... angel

..best luck angel

yashrahul · Yellow Belt Joined: 29 Jun 2013 Posts: 512

Note:Is this the break out the bulls were looking for i really doubt...options data points to clear writing in most of the puts and also shedding of oi in calls..how much nifty might rally options data is not that clear now with expiry next week...nifty will come down very much also seems a rare possibility as puts are available at unbelievable prices that is they are very very cheap ...with 6 to 7 trading sessions to go if the puts have to appreciate like a rocket all we need is a gap down of 100 points on the nifty...which seems unbelievable to the put writers now..hence the puts are so cheap...but in the markets anything can happen...isn't it

rk_a2003 · Black Belt Joined: 21 Jan 2010 Posts: 2734

In markets any thing can happen...... true.....but that's ones in a blue moon. Most of the times....I repeat.....most of the times what is going to happen is scripted precisely.......especially for each expiry month.

What we are doing with our technical analysis is trying hard to know what that script is? and market makers who mastered in art of deceiving innovate new tactics always.

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

yashrahul · Yellow Belt Joined: 29 Jun 2013 Posts: 512

yashrahul · Yellow Belt Joined: 29 Jun 2013 Posts: 512

Note:Complacent Bulls are at it again...even though all the Asian markets were down the bulls didn't bother..today again the 6300 put was written and is now available at very very cheap price...with 5 to 6 trading sessions the bulls are very confident of defending the 6300 strike...whether they are successful or not in defending the 6300 strike we will only know by expiry but today's options data is fully in the favor of bulls..tomorrow is friday...tomorrow's weekly close will be keenly watched by both the bulls and the bears...best luck... angel

yoginishreyas · White Belt Joined: 03 Dec 2012 Posts: 80

Dear yashrahul,

How to conclude If Calls/Puts has been written, I mean suppose OI has added 10lcs shares then How to conclude if it is Buy or written?

Thanks
Shreyas