iCharts Discussions

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

thanks turtle. I too feel on or after 28/2 and, particularly, 2-6/3 we could see major changes.

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

We need to pay attention to What is Happening in Ukraine.... Because a full scale War there will lead to>>> Strength in $USD- which will lead to >>> Weakness in Emerging Market Currencies including INR, leading to Sell-Off by FII for portfolio Re-balancing.....

This is an Observation....Not an Opinion...

Invest Wisely,

Turtle

vinst · Black Belt Joined: 09 Jan 2007 Posts: 3303

Sensex price chart (weekly, scale : right side y-axis) with RSI 9 period in dark blue. X-axis is number of days.

Th first higher peak (after a multi-month decline) at around 18300 shown with A occurred in Feb-2012. then price rose to around 20500 and consolidated for a long time as shown in yellow rectangle by caption ''consolidation 1''.
Now, since day number 4400 (approx.), sensex has broken above this yellow rectangle and again consolidating
RSI9 is almost at bottom. and could go abv falling cyan-dashed trendline.
To me, it doesn't give a picture of any imminent decline. On the contrary, it is signalling rise since short term indicators are already bottomed out (like stochastics with settings 5,3 or 8,3 , etc.).
pls ignore other red/green lines.

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

vinst... I am of the view that we are into a long-term Bull Market. And the probability of breaching 5500-5600 area for Nifty is nearly Negative. However, I need to pay attention to all factors which can impact my Investments and make best use of the resultant Price Action. That's why I try not to hold any opinion about market ( at times I fail though...).

Based on my Cyclic studies, we may see a trade-able high in the Month of March 2014 or at Max early April 2014. Whether we will see it Now or Later remains to be seen. I am keenly Observing Price Action and Geo-Politics and will react swiftly when I see the opportunity....

All I want to ensure is-" My Making Money is not an Accident, but is a result of my sincere Efforts"

Invest Wisely,

Turtle

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

Latest Observations:

1. Both 60M & Daily trends are Positive.

2. Short & Intermediate Term Breadth are Over-Bought.

3. FII Data indicates majority Shorts have been Covered and some kind of Buying Climax is happening.

Nifty should start a minimum 400-500 point correction soon. The question is where from it starts ???? From the visible resistance zone of 6300-6400 Or will it go for a False Break-Out above 6415. Nifty is Not on a Sell Signal at present. Closing below 6210 for 3-4 hours , 60M trend will turn Negative, and that will signal change in Trend. IF and When a Correction materializes, Nifty could fall to 5970-5933 zone and that would be the minimum target. Once we breach that lower Targets will emerge.

General Elections starts from 7th April, which coincides with the Turning point in 1st Week of April. There is a Good chance that Nifty forms a Low during that time.

As mentioned earlier, Nifty could form a visible Top in the month of March 2014.

Invest Wisely,

Turtle

manojkr78 · Green Belt Joined: 07 Mar 2011 Posts: 1014

turtle,

what about minor turning point 5/6th march, still valid??

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

Turn dates - 5/6th March 2014 , have proved to be the day Nifty Breaks-Out of Multi-year consolidation. If the current Break-Out is for Real.... Long positions can be created on Retest of 6300-6400 zone.

Its been ages since we have seen Grand move from Reliance, as we saw yesterday. Such moves do not get over in one day.

Most Difficult trades to take have proven to be the Most profitable.

Invest Wisely,

Turtle

acharyams · Yellow Belt Joined: 04 Jul 2010 Posts: 552

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

Latest Observations:

1. Both 60M and Daily trends are Positive.

2. Short term Breadth is Over-Sold. Intermediate term Breadth is Bullish. But, is getting Over-Bought.

3. Resistance zone 6600-6800.

Since 60M trend is Positive, I will consider not going Short now.

As per Cyclic Analysis, here are the Probabilities....

1. March 2014 could present a visible High. At Max it can stretch to early April 2014 .

2. High made in March 2014, may not be violated till 2nd Half of June 2014 or July 2014.

3. Month of May 2014 can present a Buying Opportunity. ( Looks improbable...But I wonder, if Nifty will pay attention to 5620.... Fat Finger Low made in March 2014)

4. Many Important cycles would be Bottoming around Oct-Nov-Dec 2014. Markets should rally sharply post this period.

One most important aspect of Cyclic Analysis is to remember " We will cross the Bridge , when it Comes".

Happy Holi to All...

Invest Wisely...

Turtle

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

Under normal circumstances , Nifty is fairly Over-Sold. Holding above the 6430, it can stage a rally towards 6650-6700 in the next couple of sessions based on conservative targets. Aggressive targets project 6800+.

Invest Wisely,

Turtle

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

Nifty Spot EOD close above 6567 would be very Bullish. Thereafter NS can rally to 6777-6800.

amitagg · Black Belt Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

So far Nifty is moving on Expected lines. We need to be observant of the following....

1. 1st Week of April can prove to be turning point.

2. Last few Days and first two days of the Month or Quarter are usually Bullish.

3. Nifty is getting Over-Bought. But it can remain over-Bought for months in a Trending Market.

Invest Wisely,

Turtle