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turtlecsi
White Belt
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
Posts: 196
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Post: #151  Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2014 9:14 pm Post subject: |
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Latest Observations:
1. Both 60M & Daily trends are Positive.
2. Short and Intermediate term Breadth are hitting Bullish Extremes.
3. Major resistance 6777-6800.
4. Based on Pattern Recognition, Monday could prove to be a buying Climax Day.
5. Monthly cycles indicate March 2014 could be a trade-able High.
Here is an Opinion.... Central Bankers globally are talking and Walking Hawkish tones as far as rates are Concerned. Considering Inflation numbers, Market is discounting that RBI will leave rates Unchanged or may be will reduce Rates. However, RBI may actually throw a negative Surprise concerning Rates....
If we see Nifty correcting in the coming days, I would be looking at 6355-6363 as a Possible support zone.
Happy Weekend...
Invest Wisely...
Turtle |
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turtlecsi
White Belt
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
Posts: 196
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| Post: #152 Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 8:06 pm Post subject: |
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Nifty has been moving along as expected. Currently getting resisted @6777-6800 area as mentioned earlier.
Latest Observations:
1. Both 60M & Daily trends are Positive.
2. Intermediate term Breadth is reaching Bullish Extremes. However, instead of a directional negative move, it may consolidate here.
3. In the event of any correction, which is likely after the current series Expiry, Nifty may find support around 6400-odd level.
Its Better to be a Trend Follower, than trying to predict the Top.
Invest Wisely,
Turtle |
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turtlecsi
White Belt
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
Posts: 196
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| Post: #153 Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2014 9:16 pm Post subject: |
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Latest Observations:
1. Both 60M & Daily trends are Positive.
2. Breadth is hitting Bullish Extremes. But Market consolidating, instead of correcting, as Expected.
3. VIX hits Intermediate term Resistance 35-38. Not much upside from here. Rise in VIX is compensating for Time Decay and Delta move.
4. VIX indicates May series range of 7500-6200. Option Ratio Spreads may work fine.
Fair possibility of breach of 6650 post April Expiry. Its more likely to be False Break-Down...
Almost Everyone is expecting Nifty to hit 7200-7500 zone, hoping for a Pro-BJP mandate. What-ever the mandate is, it would be wise to take Partial profits before the Results...
Invest Wisely,
Turtle
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RAJDESAI1967
Yellow Belt
Joined: 19 Mar 2013
Posts: 518
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| Post: #154 Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2014 9:52 pm Post subject: TUrtle |
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sir
any site to c delta levels of any particular stock.. on daily basis |
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turtlecsi
White Belt
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
Posts: 196
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| Post: #155 Posted: Wed May 14, 2014 10:27 am Post subject: |
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Nifty is trading as expected. It started correcting post April Expiry, falling below 6650. And it was a Failed Breakdown and what a move there-after !!!
Latest Observation:
1. Both 60M and Daily trends are positive.
2. Market Breadth is not Over-Bought.
Based on pattern recognition, Nifty is likely to move up 3%-5% due to positive Elections outcome. However, that could be a temporary Top.
The next best Buying opportunity could emerge below 6500. Even under Worst circumstances Nifty should end 2014 above 6600. And the best case number is above 11000.
The Best is yet to come.
Invest Wisely,
Turtle |
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ca.krishna
White Belt
Joined: 17 Sep 2013
Posts: 158
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| Post: #156 Posted: Wed May 28, 2014 2:46 pm Post subject: |
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Hi,
Please update your latest observations.
Thanks |
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turtlecsi
White Belt
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
Posts: 196
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| Post: #157 Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2014 11:46 am Post subject: |
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Latest Observations:
Nifty has so far been trading below the Election day Euphoric high as expected. However, there is a probability of Nifty moving towards 7750-7800 in the current month , based on VIX.
1. Both 60M & Daily Trends are positive.
2. Short term and Intermediate term breadth are Bullish and have not hit the extremes.
VIX may expand in the coming days , due to the Union Budget scheduled in the 1st week of July 2014. Selling options could be risky , as VIX expansion would negate the Delta move. Strategic buying in Options could prove to be profitable.
Based on the current price structure, its unlikely that Nifty would correct below 6500 in the coming days. However, correction below 7000, could be used to create fresh longs.
There are corrections in every market. In Bull market, they are sharp and tend to last for about 3-5 weeks. Pay attention.
Invest Wisely,
Turtle |
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sambhaji_t
White Belt
Joined: 31 Mar 2008
Posts: 135
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| Post: #158 Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2014 11:49 am Post subject: |
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THANKS A LOT  |
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turtlecsi
White Belt
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
Posts: 196
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| Post: #159 Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2014 12:03 pm Post subject: |
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| turtlecsi wrote: | The Trend seems to be Up since the low formed on 22nd Nov 13. I am not a supporter of any political ideology. These people are professional Politicians and most of them are Corrupt.Looking at Nifty/ Sensex, I THINK Nifty may Break Out, rather then Break Down in the near future. Hence, expecting Nifty to tread in to all tine New High very soon. Retail investors are not Invested. As indicated earlier, the potential Risk is about 10% and Probable Gain is above 100% in the nest 24 months.
I am expecting Nifty to move to 7000 odd level before August 2014. Only then a correction of Importance is likely to happen. The week starting 18th August 2014 is likely to be a High of Importance. I will hold this opinion until Market proves it otherwise.
Invest Wisely...
Turtle |
FYI... Posted in Dec 2013 |
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turtlecsi
White Belt
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
Posts: 196
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| Post: #160 Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2014 10:45 am Post subject: |
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Latest Observations:
1 . Both 60M & Daily trends are positive.
2. Breadth is Bullish , but is turning weak.
3. Nifty facing selling pressure near VIX resistance levels 7750-7800.
Friday session we witnessed range Expansion to the downside. There was no or little demand above Thursday's high and Nifty sold off quite a bit on Friday. Now, we need to see if there is any follow through below Friday's Low. Fridays low will be breached in the coming week for sure. When there is a breach of Friday's Low 7525, if Nifty manages to close above 7545-7550 area, that can be treated as Bullish . Other wise Negative move will continue.
Invest Wisely,
Turtle
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #161 Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2014 6:10 pm Post subject: |
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| turtlecsi wrote: | | turtlecsi wrote: | The Trend seems to be Up since the low formed on 22nd Nov 13. I am not a supporter of any political ideology. These people are professional Politicians and most of them are Corrupt.Looking at Nifty/ Sensex, I THINK Nifty may Break Out, rather then Break Down in the near future. Hence, expecting Nifty to tread in to all tine New High very soon. Retail investors are not Invested. As indicated earlier, the potential Risk is about 10% and Probable Gain is above 100% in the nest 24 months.
I am expecting Nifty to move to 7000 odd level before August 2014. Only then a correction of Importance is likely to happen. The week starting 18th August 2014 is likely to be a High of Importance. I will hold this opinion until Market proves it otherwise.
Invest Wisely...
Turtle |
FYI... Posted in Dec 2013 |
When 7000 was expected by August 14 and 7700 happens by June 14 how does one. Interpret it and revises targets. Question is what is target now for august 14 especially since you have considered time analysis in evaluation |
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turtlecsi
White Belt
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
Posts: 196
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| Post: #162 Posted: Mon Jun 16, 2014 8:17 am Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | | turtlecsi wrote: | | turtlecsi wrote: | The Trend seems to be Up since the low formed on 22nd Nov 13. I am not a supporter of any political ideology. These people are professional Politicians and most of them are Corrupt.Looking at Nifty/ Sensex, I THINK Nifty may Break Out, rather then Break Down in the near future. Hence, expecting Nifty to tread in to all tine New High very soon. Retail investors are not Invested. As indicated earlier, the potential Risk is about 10% and Probable Gain is above 100% in the nest 24 months.
I am expecting Nifty to move to 7000 odd level before August 2014. Only then a correction of Importance is likely to happen. The week starting 18th August 2014 is likely to be a High of Importance. I will hold this opinion until Market proves it otherwise.
Invest Wisely...
Turtle |
FYI... Posted in Dec 2013 |
When 7000 was expected by August 14 and 7700 happens by June 14 how does one. Interpret it and revises targets. Question is what is target now for august 14 especially since you have considered time analysis in evaluation |
Nifty 7000 was the minimum target that I was expecting by August 14. Now since the number has already been exceeded in June 14. The best case number I can calculate at present for Nifty to hit by mid-August 2014 is in the range of 9100-9350.
Invest Wisely,
Turtle |
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turtlecsi
White Belt
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
Posts: 196
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| Post: #163 Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2014 9:01 am Post subject: |
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Latest Observations:
1. Both 60M & Daily trends are positive.
2. Market breadth is Bullish.
3. VIX resistance level stands at 7900-7950. Though EoD close above this will trigger strong up move.
Market will keep surging ahead till the time people keep doubting the current rally. This is a Bull Market, and the best way to trade a Bull Market is trade on the Long side with appropriate SL.
Based on my Studies, Nifty is likely to form a High for a significant drop around the week of 18th Aug 2014. WE will get a fair idea about the extent of correction, once we reach that Turn Date. Till that time, be a Trend Follower...
Invest Wisely,
Turtle |
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manojkr78
Green Belt
Joined: 07 Mar 2011
Posts: 1014
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| Post: #164 Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2014 9:32 am Post subject: |
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| thanks... |
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turtlecsi
White Belt
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
Posts: 196
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| Post: #165 Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2014 2:23 pm Post subject: |
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Latest Observations:
1. Both Daily & 60M Trends are Positive.
2. Market Breadth is Bullish.
Nifty is in High Momentum and its futile to pick a number where it could form a probable top. With Union Budget and Infy results on 10th & 11th results respectively, the coming week is going to be interesting for sure.
The chart of Infy/ IT Index, looks quite Bullish. Looking at the current structure of Nifty which has staged a Break-out after a 3 week consolidation, positive surprise can be expected and the Index can move beyond 8500 in such turn of events.
Invest Wisely,
Turtle
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