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turtlecsi
White Belt
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
Posts: 196
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Post: #181  Posted: Thu Jul 31, 2014 10:42 am Post subject: |
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Latest Observations:
1. Both 60M & Daily trends are Positive. Weekly & Monthly trends are Positive too.
2. Market Breadth is Bullish.
3. Nifty has Resistance at 7850-7900. Weekly close above this zone would be very Bullish. Nifty could stage a rally towards 8800-9000 level.
Turn Date in August
14th Aug- High
22nd or 25th Aug- Low
Seems like the Turn dates are working fine. Nifty is poised to create a New High this week. Weekly close above 7850-7900 zone should lead to a very High Momentum rally in August.
We are in a Bull Market. Therefore, lets Stop looking at Negative Divergence in Momentum Oscillators, since its a typical feature in a Bull Market. Rather it must be used as a Contrary Indicator to go Long.
Invest Wisely,
Turtle |
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manojkr78
Green Belt
Joined: 07 Mar 2011
Posts: 1014
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| Post: #182 Posted: Thu Jul 31, 2014 10:51 am Post subject: |
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turtle,
your observations are very useful......
thanks
manoj |
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turtlecsi
White Belt
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
Posts: 196
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| Post: #183 Posted: Wed Aug 06, 2014 11:16 am Post subject: |
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There is a good probability that Nifty would move past 7850-7900 in the next couple of sessions. Many sectors like Metals, Energy, Auto, Banking and Infrastructure are fairly Over-Sold and could rally sharply in the coming days.
Invest Wisely,
Turtle |
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turtlecsi
White Belt
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
Posts: 196
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| Post: #184 Posted: Tue Aug 12, 2014 2:49 pm Post subject: |
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| turtlecsi wrote: | There is a good probability that Nifty would move past 7850-7900 in the next couple of sessions. Many sectors like Metals, Energy, Auto, Banking and Infrastructure are fairly Over-Sold and could rally sharply in the coming days.
Invest Wisely,
Turtle |
Auto and Energy sectors have Broken Out. Will keep a close eye on Metals, Banking and Infra sectors.
Invest Wisely,
Turtle |
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turtlecsi
White Belt
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
Posts: 196
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| Post: #185 Posted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 12:25 pm Post subject: |
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| turtlecsi wrote: | There is a good probability that Nifty would move past 7850-7900 in the next couple of sessions.
Invest Wisely,
Turtle |
Nifty has taken out last week high and trading above it. Short covering can lead it beyond 7800 today... Lets see...
Invest Wisely,
Turtle |
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turtlecsi
White Belt
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
Posts: 196
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| Post: #186 Posted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 1:04 pm Post subject: |
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| turtlecsi wrote: | | turtlecsi wrote: | There is a good probability that Nifty would move past 7850-7900 in the next couple of sessions. Many sectors like Metals, Energy, Auto, Banking and Infrastructure are fairly Over-Sold and could rally sharply in the coming days.
Invest Wisely,
Turtle |
Auto and Energy sectors have Broken Out. Will keep a close eye on Metals, Banking and Infra sectors.
Invest Wisely,
Turtle |
Banking Index too has Broken Out... Metals on the verge of Break Out...
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turtlecsi
White Belt
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
Posts: 196
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| Post: #187 Posted: Wed Aug 20, 2014 9:23 pm Post subject: |
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Latest Observations:
1. Both 60M & Daily trends are Positive. Weekly & Monthly trends are positive too.
2. Breath is Positive and has not yet reached Bullish extremes.
Nifty is likely to move up till the 1st week of Sept. If Nifty starts correcting in Sept, than the most likely time zone for an Intermediate term Low would be the week starting 21st October 2014.
Invest Wisely,
Turtle |
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manojkr78
Green Belt
Joined: 07 Mar 2011
Posts: 1014
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| Post: #188 Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2014 9:39 am Post subject: |
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Turtle,
Thanks for your views. your initial target for aug 7850-7900 achieved. Do you have any numbers for this rally where it will top around sep 1st week...
Thanks
Manoj |
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turtlecsi
White Belt
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
Posts: 196
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| Post: #189 Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:24 am Post subject: |
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Nifty should most likely correct post the Aug Expiry. I would keep a close eye on the 29th Aug/ 1st Sept Turn dates for reversal. I do not have a figure for probable Top. I would surely consider going Short, once the 60M trend Turns Down.
Probable Bottom TGT- Correction below 7119 (30th May 2014 Low)
Massive Support @ 6880-6650
Invest Wisely,
Turtle |
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turtlecsi
White Belt
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
Posts: 196
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| Post: #190 Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2014 2:30 pm Post subject: |
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| turtlecsi wrote: |
Turn Date in August
14th Aug- High
22nd or 25th Aug- Low
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I wonder if the turn date 22nd /25th Aug - for a probable Low would work. If it does, that Low point should not get broken for the rest of the Month. Lets see... |
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manojkr78
Green Belt
Joined: 07 Mar 2011
Posts: 1014
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| Post: #191 Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2014 9:16 pm Post subject: |
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Turtle,
Does it mean any low formed on tomorrow or monday should not be breached for aug month??
did 14 aug high imply anything??
your valuable comment highly appreciated....
Regards,
Manoj |
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turtlecsi
White Belt
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
Posts: 196
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| Post: #192 Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2014 10:12 pm Post subject: |
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| manojkr78 wrote: | Turtle,
Does it mean any low formed on tomorrow or monday should not be breached for aug month??
did 14 aug high imply anything??
your valuable comment highly appreciated....
Regards,
Manoj |
Dear Manoj,
The Turn Dates are Work in Progress. So far as the Aug 2014 Turn date is concerned , I think it should work with Std.Dev of +1 week. Pay attention to weakness that develops around 1st Week of Sept 2014.
Invest Wisely,
Turtle |
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manojkr78
Green Belt
Joined: 07 Mar 2011
Posts: 1014
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| Post: #193 Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2014 10:19 pm Post subject: |
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| thanks.... |
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turtlecsi
White Belt
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
Posts: 196
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| Post: #194 Posted: Fri Aug 22, 2014 8:56 am Post subject: |
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| turtlecsi wrote: | Latest Observations:
1. Both 60M & Daily trends are Positive. Weekly & Monthly trends are positive too.
2. Breath is Positive and has not yet reached Bullish extremes.
Nifty is likely to move up till the 1st week of Sept. If Nifty starts correcting in Sept, than the most likely time zone for an Intermediate term Low would be the week starting 21st October 2014.
Invest Wisely,
Turtle |
The Tricky thing about using Turn Dates is, at Times they INVERT- we get a High, instead of a Low or vice-a-versa. So, we need to be careful using Turn dates in our Trading Strategy. Therefore, if we see Nifty rallying in to Late October 2014, instead of Falling as posted here, we should be Happy -its a Bull Market after all........ That's why, I put more stress on the 60M & Daily trends more than anything else...
Invest Wisely,
Turtle |
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a1b1trader
Yellow Belt
Joined: 13 Jul 2014
Posts: 691
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| Post: #195 Posted: Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:41 am Post subject: |
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| turtlecsi wrote: | | turtlecsi wrote: | Latest Observations:
1. Both 60M & Daily trends are Positive. Weekly & Monthly trends are positive too.
2. Breath is Positive and has not yet reached Bullish extremes.
Nifty is likely to move up till the 1st week of Sept. If Nifty starts correcting in Sept, than the most likely time zone for an Intermediate term Low would be the week starting 21st October 2014.
Invest Wisely,
Turtle |
The Tricky thing about using Turn Dates is, at Times they INVERT- we get a High, instead of a Low or vice-a-versa. So, we need to be careful using Turn dates in our Trading Strategy. Therefore, if we see Nifty rallying in to Late October 2014, instead of Falling as posted here, we should be Happy -its a Bull Market after all........ That's why, I put more stress on the 60M & Daily trends more than anything else...
Invest Wisely,
Turtle |
Very true
Nice observations
Keep it up |
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