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turtlecsi
White Belt
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
Posts: 196
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Post: #196  Posted: Fri Aug 22, 2014 12:27 pm Post subject: |
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| Sensex monthly chart indicates Strong Resistance @ 26300-26500...[/img] |
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turtlecsi
White Belt
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
Posts: 196
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| Post: #197 Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2014 3:01 pm Post subject: |
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| turtlecsi wrote: | Nifty should most likely correct post the Aug Expiry. I would keep a close eye on the 29th Aug/ 1st Sept Turn dates for reversal. I do not have a figure for probable Top. I would surely consider going Short, once the 60M trend Turns Down.
Probable Bottom TGT- Correction below 7119 (30th May 2014 Low)
Massive Support @ 6880-6650
Invest Wisely,
Turtle |
Trading below 7850, 60M trend would trend down......... |
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turtlecsi
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Joined: 28 Jan 2010
Posts: 196
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| Post: #198 Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2014 8:48 pm Post subject: |
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| Nifty Daily poised in Balance.... coming sessions are Critical |
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turtlecsi
White Belt
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
Posts: 196
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| Post: #199 Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2014 9:29 am Post subject: |
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Closing below 7900 today, 60M trend would turn Negative. Moving below 7870, downward momentum could go up sharply. Time to be careful with Longs....
Invest Wisely,
Turtle
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turtlecsi
White Belt
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
Posts: 196
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| Post: #200 Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2014 10:31 am Post subject: |
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Latest Observations:
1. 60M trend is sideways. Fall below 7860-7840 zone would turn it Negative.
2. Daily trend is Positive. Weekly and Monthly trends are Positive too. But as indicated in Sensex monthly chart, Uptrend is getting Exhausted.
3. Market Breadth is Positive.
Seems like Nifty would not break down till the 1st Week of Sept. Thereafter Volatility is likely to Spike Up and Market Direction would Turn Negative.
Invest Wisely,
Turtle |
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manojkr78
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Joined: 07 Mar 2011
Posts: 1014
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| Post: #201 Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2014 11:28 am Post subject: |
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Turtle,
Many thanks.... |
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turtlecsi
White Belt
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
Posts: 196
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| Post: #202 Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2014 8:21 pm Post subject: |
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A few Observations:
1. US markets have gone through a period of Short Covering and VIX is staying Low. But there is strong divergence between S&P 500 and Dow. S&P 500 has taken out July-2014 high, but Dow has just retested July High. This does not look good. Could correct below Aug Low in the coming weeks...
2. As indicated in the Sensex chart posted earlier, there is not much room available for further up-move. So far we have seen only one Intermediate Bottom in Feb 2014 . Looking at weekly/ monthly charts, Market looks over-extended and is due for a Correction. Watching turn date 1st Sept 2014
3. We are entering in to a Seasonally Weak period. Sept-Oct and early November period has produced several correction. Since, Markets are trading around Resistance Levels, an Intermediate term Correction looks Probable. In additions, there are Bulls every-where . If most people have Bought, who is Left to Buy. We must realize, Markets correct not because of Bears,but because of Tired Bulls.
I am not sure from where this correction will start... Many Analysts are talking about 8000-8400 odd numbers. RR Sir is taking about 8125-8450 area... I am not great with Numbers. Each of us have our own systems that we follow. In the past several months, our Market has moved up without meaningful corrections, and many Sell Signals have failed Badly... But as Trend Followers, I have to trade as the Signal emerges.... No assumptions...
Invest Wisely,
Turtle |
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turtlecsi
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Joined: 28 Jan 2010
Posts: 196
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| Post: #203 Posted: Mon Sep 01, 2014 12:54 pm Post subject: |
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This the the"D"-Week.Time to Be very very careful with Long Positions. Playing for the last Tick could be very very Risky.
Any Correction starting Now, could continue till last week of October or 1st Week of Nov 2014.
60M trend would turn Negative below 7940.
Resistance @ 8080-8100.
Invest Wisely,
Turtle
Last edited by turtlecsi on Mon Sep 01, 2014 2:19 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #204 Posted: Mon Sep 01, 2014 1:01 pm Post subject: |
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| turtlecsi wrote: | This the the"D"-Week.Time to Be very very careful with Long Positions. Playing for the last Tick could be very very Risky.
Invest Wisely,
Turtle |
agreed...[as per one method, the date is 17-18-sep also.....[28-Aug was my date which is just done]
you have posted in nick of time.........i mark your words "Playing for the last Tick could be very very Risky"
thankyou |
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turtlecsi
White Belt
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
Posts: 196
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| Post: #205 Posted: Mon Sep 01, 2014 2:40 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | | turtlecsi wrote: | This the the"D"-Week.Time to Be very very careful with Long Positions. Playing for the last Tick could be very very Risky.
Invest Wisely,
Turtle |
agreed...[as per one method, the date is 17-18-sep also.....[28-Aug was my date which is just done]
you have posted in nick of time.........i mark your words "Playing for the last Tick could be very very Risky"
thankyou |
Important Numbers I would be Watching for the current month :
Resistance- 8095 (+/- 15 points)
Support - 7658 (+/- 15 points ) . Breaking the Support...It will be Free for All.... Nifty could actually move below 7000.
Invest Wisely,
Turtle |
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a1b1trader
Yellow Belt
Joined: 13 Jul 2014
Posts: 691
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| Post: #206 Posted: Mon Sep 01, 2014 2:52 pm Post subject: |
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| turtlecsi wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | | turtlecsi wrote: | This the the"D"-Week.Time to Be very very careful with Long Positions. Playing for the last Tick could be very very Risky.
Invest Wisely,
Turtle |
agreed...[as per one method, the date is 17-18-sep also.....[28-Aug was my date which is just done]
you have posted in nick of time.........i mark your words "Playing for the last Tick could be very very Risky"
thankyou |
Important Numbers I would be Watching for the current month :
Resistance- 8095 (+/- 15 points)
Support - 7658 (+/- 15 points ) . Breaking the Support...It will be Free for All.... Nifty could actually move below 7000.
Invest Wisely,
Turtle |
And what about crossing the resistance
Then how far Nifty will go |
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turtlecsi
White Belt
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
Posts: 196
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| Post: #207 Posted: Mon Sep 01, 2014 3:14 pm Post subject: |
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| a1b1trader wrote: | | turtlecsi wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | | turtlecsi wrote: | This the the"D"-Week.Time to Be very very careful with Long Positions. Playing for the last Tick could be very very Risky.
Invest Wisely,
Turtle |
agreed...[as per one method, the date is 17-18-sep also.....[28-Aug was my date which is just done]
you have posted in nick of time.........i mark your words "Playing for the last Tick could be very very Risky"
thankyou |
Important Numbers I would be Watching for the current month :
Resistance- 8095 (+/- 15 points)
Support - 7658 (+/- 15 points ) . Breaking the Support...It will be Free for All.... Nifty could actually move below 7000.
Invest Wisely,
Turtle |
And what about crossing the resistance
Then how far Nifty will go |
Dear a1b1trader,
As per my understanding, Nifty would find it difficult to move up further beyond 8100 without a meaningful correction. I am not Bearish... I am just a bit Careful at current level. Risk-reward Ratio is not favorable as per my understanding.
Invest Wisely,
Turtle |
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a1b1trader
Yellow Belt
Joined: 13 Jul 2014
Posts: 691
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| Post: #208 Posted: Mon Sep 01, 2014 3:16 pm Post subject: |
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| turtlecsi wrote: | | a1b1trader wrote: | | turtlecsi wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | | turtlecsi wrote: | This the the"D"-Week.Time to Be very very careful with Long Positions. Playing for the last Tick could be very very Risky.
Invest Wisely,
Turtle |
agreed...[as per one method, the date is 17-18-sep also.....[28-Aug was my date which is just done]
you have posted in nick of time.........i mark your words "Playing for the last Tick could be very very Risky"
thankyou |
Important Numbers I would be Watching for the current month :
Resistance- 8095 (+/- 15 points)
Support - 7658 (+/- 15 points ) . Breaking the Support...It will be Free for All.... Nifty could actually move below 7000.
Invest Wisely,
Turtle |
And what about crossing the resistance
Then how far Nifty will go |
Dear a1b1trader,
As per my understanding, Nifty would find it difficult to move up further beyond 8100 without a meaningful correction. I am not Bearish... I am just a bit Careful at current level. Risk-reward Ratio is not favorable as per my understanding.
Invest Wisely,
Turtle |
Thats right
Thanks |
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turtlecsi
White Belt
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
Posts: 196
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| Post: #209 Posted: Tue Sep 02, 2014 7:32 pm Post subject: |
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Latest Observations:
1. 60M and Daily trends are Positive. Weekly & Monthly trends are positive too.
2. Short & Intermediate term Breadth are Positive , but are close to Extreme levels.
Nifty traded @ 8100 indicated a couple of sessions earlier. As stated earlier, I am unable to arrive at further upside targets beyond 8100, at present. Analysis on various time frames indicates probable correction from current level. However, Nifty is not on a Sell Signal as of now.
Down side support exists at 7660/7540/7240 for the month of September.
Now.... Supposing there is a Major Breakout... NS can move to -8520
Even US markets are likely to face Selling pressure from here onward.
The probable reason for the Global Sell-Off could be due to Escalation of Ukraine -Russia war games. Possibly direct confrontation of US or Europe.
Invest Wisely,
Turtle |
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turtlecsi
White Belt
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
Posts: 196
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| Post: #210 Posted: Thu Sep 04, 2014 10:23 am Post subject: |
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I wonder How Global Markets will react, if NATO decides to defend Ukraine against the Separatists - which will effectively be a War by US-Europe against Russia...
Below 8000, 60M trend would turn Negative...
Invest Wisely,
Turtle |
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