iCharts Discussions

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

Today NIFTY formed the 6th RED bar. Since the trend is NEGATIVE, as and when we get a reaction lasting 1-3 time units, that can be used for shorting or exiting out of Long positions. It will be some time before a significant buying point emerges. Looking at price structure, the Minimum price expectation I can arrive at, is breach of 5800 in the current expiry. Lower price objective will emerge, as we progress...

Invest Wisely...

Turtle

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

Nothing much happening. Trend is Negative. Nifty flirting with 50 SMA. Last time it was there on 1st Oct, we saw a good trading low @ 5700.

Today's High and Low will be important. If Nifty takes out today's high, the much expected reaction lasting 1-3 time units should come. However, if today's low is breached, we may get a classic Sell Short Day. And there after Nifty should breach 5800 in a hurry.

However, I could be wrong and might have to wait much longer for the next Intermediate Low for further buying.

Invest Wisely,

Turtle

manojkr78 · Green Belt Joined: 07 Mar 2011 Posts: 1014

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

Nifty has taken support at 50 SMA, as suspected. Its unlikely that we will go below 5500 from here on even if the SKY Falls... However, on a retest of 5800-5700 levels in the next 3-6 months , I would be a BUYER in this Market.
We are at a Great Inflection Point... Potential Risk is 10% and Potential Gain is over 100% for Nifty in the next 24 months

Invest Wisely....

Turtle

ca.krishna · White Belt Joined: 17 Sep 2013 Posts: 158

Dear Turtlecsi

do you see 5700-5800 (the fair value) coming now....or bounce up from here...

Thanks

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

Looks like the Pull back lasted 3 days (as suspected) and the trend (negative) resumes. Fair value of Nifty stands at 5850-5900. However, with Margin of Safety, if and when Nifty falls around 5850-5750 area, I will consider buying , provided my Prop. Indicators are shouting for a BUY... Till then Waiting for the Opportunity to Emerge.......

Invest Wisely...

Turtle...

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

If today's GAP is not filled, Nifty has most likely formed an Island Top ....

Turtle...

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

Today Nifty went below yesterday's Low and went very close to 5972.45 (Low of 13th Nov). Nifty did not break low of 13th Nov, but SENSEX did Break the Low.However, Selling was not very strong to breach 5970 in a significant way.
Today's High and Low will be significant.On Breach of HIGH, long position can be taken.If Low is breached , Market will continue drifting down...

A GAP Up opening above 6050 NS would be interesting

Invest wisely...

Turtle

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

Nifty did GAP UP as expected. However, NS is likely to face Selling pressure around 6100 (Gap Down area). One can initiate Short positions with target of Fair Value area (5900-5850).

Invest Wisely...

Turtle

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

Seems like Nifty formed a trading low, one day earlier than my Turn Dates 25/26th Nov 2013. But that's OK...
Nifty is likely to move up from here, going into 2nd week of Dec 2013. It may be possible that Nifty actually breaks above 6343... going into that period...

I will have to wait longer for an intermediate term Low....

Invest Wisely...

Turtle

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

Nifty Spot closing above 6200 today will indicate that the current breakout may lead to significant up move in the days ahead. Shorts will be clobbered... Its the beginning of Election Anticipation Rally...

India-Vix can come down to 13-14 zone. Means we can see a large up move in coming days/weeks...

Invest Wisely...

Turtle

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

Nifty has failed to close above 6200 today. There was no conviction to move up after the initial thrust. Nifty is likely to trade and close in GREEN on Monday. However, I am expecting the market to Pull back going into Tuesday/Wednesday. Looking at the Price action on Monday , one can decide whether to go short on Monday/Tuesday. Or to wait for the pull back to happen to go long.

Happy weekend....

Invest Wisely...

Turtle Very Happy

manojkr78 · Green Belt Joined: 07 Mar 2011 Posts: 1014

thanks for your views.....keep posting whenever possible......

annepu2001 · White Belt Joined: 21 Feb 2013 Posts: 3

The NIFTY rally is a hollow one and no huge upsides can be seen beyond 6320.Now new highs will be made in a hurry atleast now.December may be volatile but not conducive for new Highs. Only specific stocks will make new highs as stock accumulation that began in August is being distributed sector wise in all sectors on a rotation basis by pushing up prices

annepu2001 · White Belt Joined: 21 Feb 2013 Posts: 3

NIFTY will come down to 6120-40 range before the next move as Option reading suggests that the markets are not ready for their next up move and need to further consolidate at present levels . The max that NIFTY will rally is till 6340 and not beyond that range , irrespective of assembly election results .