iCharts Discussions

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

The Trend seems to be Up since the low formed on 22nd Nov 13. I am not a supporter of any political ideology. These people are professional Politicians and most of them are Corrupt.Looking at Nifty/ Sensex, I THINK Nifty may Break Out, rather then Break Down in the near future. Hence, expecting Nifty to tread in to all tine New High very soon. Retail investors are not Invested. As indicated earlier, the potential Risk is about 10% and Probable Gain is above 100% in the nest 24 months.

I am expecting Nifty to move to 7000 odd level before August 2014. Only then a correction of Importance is likely to happen. The week starting 18th August 2014 is likely to be a High of Importance. I will hold this opinion until Market proves it otherwise.

Invest Wisely...

Turtle

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

Nifty closed in Green on Monday and the pull back has started as expected.

In the last couple of days India-VIX has expanded indicating volatility being priced in due to impending Elections. Therefore, Volatility Crush is expected post Election results are announced. Buying naked Options is risky.Today was an Inside Day (NR4 & NR7 too......). If we pull back tomorrow, one may consider putting an options strategy that benefits from Volatility Crush.

Both Daily and 60M trends are Positive so far.... Picking the Direction of breakout is challenging... In event of Break-Down, Nifty falling towards 5700 odd level should be used for going long. And time wise the Down Trend should last till 3rd Week of Dec 13.

Invest Wisely...

Turtle

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

Pattern recognition indicates, Gap Up on Monday. And the possible extent of move could be minimum 125 Nifty Points. It has a success rate of nearly 80%. Since we have Election result impact on Monday, we may expect far higher decibel Price Action. Therefore, it we able to hold on today, we may be starring at All Time New High next Week.

Invest wisely...

Turtle

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

Today Nifty held up and at 10:40pm SGX Nifty is Up by 70 points. As per Pattern Recognition model posted today I am expecting Nifty to move up about at least 125 points on Monday. But that has a success rate of 80% (20% of the times it fails).

Not trying to forecast the Election results, I am making the following observations...

1. Nifty Spot has strong resistance @ 6450-6500. Up move may stall here.
2. There are too many GAP Ups in the move from 5970 till now.WEAK
3. Daily & 60M trend is Positive. Up move to continue till 60M trend reverses.
4. Any serious Break Down on Monday should fall to 5700 minimum.

Invest Wisely...

Turtle

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

Pattern Recognition at Work........

Nifty Spot Resistance @ 6450-6500. Sustained move above that can touch 6700+...

Daily and 60M trend Very much Positive...

Expecting a correction in the next couple of sessions in to 3rd Week of Dec.

Invest Wisely...

Turtle

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

As expected Nifty finally hits a Life Time New HIGH.... Not getting carried away with this event, lets look at Nifty Objectively...

1. Today's price action seems like " Buy on Anticipation -Sell on Event"
2. There are too many Gap. This is NEVER HEALTHY. Could be DISTRIBUTION.
3. Momentum was lacking. Small Cap and Mid cap Indices did not participate.
4. A broad market index like CNX-500 did not touch a New High.

Since a Probable Top formation is underway, may be we should be looking at a seasonally Bearish January.

Daily and 60M trend is still positive. Many a fortunes have been lost for Shorting a Market prematurely. Top formation takes time. Top will be confirmed looking at the 60M trend and the kind of correction we get going in to 3rd Week of Dec 13.

Invest Wisely...

Turtle

musicaldelhi · White Belt Joined: 17 Nov 2011 Posts: 186

nice and clean observation turtle ji..

pls keep posting your valuable views always..

thank you..

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

The expected Down move is in action after the Euphoric reaction to Election news. We need to see what happens in the next 2-3 sessions. I am expecting a reaction to upside starting tomorrow or latest by Monday.

60M trend is about to turn Negative , but daily trend is still Positive.

We must understand that we are into a long-term Bull Market. Playing the short-term swings lets not Miss the Forest for the Trees.

December is a Seasonally Bullish month. We can expect a Green Monthly close. Nifty Spot open for December is 6171. We are least likely to go for a Monthly close below 6171. (Those apt in Options Trading strategies may smell some opportunity here).

Invest Wisely,

Turtle

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

Support for Nifty Spot : 6175-6145. Lets see if this holds ....

60M trend has triggered Down. Daily is still positive.

Invest Wisely,

Turtle

manojkr78 · Green Belt Joined: 07 Mar 2011 Posts: 1014

thanks for update

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

The expected weakness going into 3rd Week of Dec is happening. Nifty Spot has held Support at @ 6175-6145 zone. And looking at Market Breadth , it seems likely that a Pull back is over-due. Whether we go for a 1-3 day pull-back or trend reversal to Up-Side, remains to be seen.

Happy Weekend...

Invest Wisely,

Turtle

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

I would like to extend Nifty Spot Support zone to 6115.

If we hold support, we may go above 6415 in Dec itself, and actually go around 6600-odd level by early Jan 2014, before a correction of Importance hits us.

Invest Wisely,

Turtle

manojkr78 · Green Belt Joined: 07 Mar 2011 Posts: 1014

Hi,

Are you sensing any major correction....

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

Latest Observations:

1. Nifty not attracting Selling Volume/Supply below Friday's Low.
2. Short term Breadth Indicators are Over Sold.
3. Nifty has strong support @ 6165-6115 area.
4. 60M Trend is Negative.

Even If Nifty stays in a range for the next couple of sessions with VIX rising, I would bet for a Breakout post FED/RBI policy announcement.

Invest Wisely,

Turtle

kishjk7551 · White Belt Joined: 26 Jan 2008 Posts: 293