iCharts Discussions

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

Thanks for the feedback....

If we sustain above today's high for next couple of days , we may challenge 6415 in the coming week. This will hold even if there is FED Tapper happening today, as US Markets seem to be Pricing in a slight Tapper happening in Dec itself. Tapper will prove to be a non-event in the intermediate to long run. US market is likely to start the Santa Clause Rally in next couple of sessions.

Much more money will flow in from Europe, Japan etc & even from US.... in comparison to the supposed drying up of Funds following US-FED Tapper...

Invest Wisely...

Turtle

ca.krishna · White Belt Joined: 17 Sep 2013 Posts: 158

Dear turtle ji, I follow ur posts and they are very clear and bang but here your stament is little confusing....due to tepering, if happens, today"s high levels may not sustain and then this will be wrong "Tapper will prove to be a non-event in the intermediate to long run".

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

US FED went ahead with the Taper as expected. There is always a quick/sharp short-term reaction to such announcement. But as per my assessment , it will not have a serous impact on the Intermediate to Long term trends. Its Financial Impact will be much less than, currently expected by popular media...

So far as Nifty is concerned, it failed to sustain above yesterday's high. But it also failed to takeout yesterday's Low. As posted earlier, Nifty is falling into 3rd Week of Dec. Any sustained move above 6235 tomorrow, will confirm end of Down-Trend & resumption of Up-Trend...

Invest Wisely,

Turtle

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

60M Trend is turning Positive... Lets see if we are able to hold on to today's gains.......

Invest Wisely,

Turtle

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

Latest Observations:

1. Both 60M and Daily trends are positive.
2. Nifty is likely to move up towards 6650-6600 zone latest by early 3rd week of January
3.Since a probable Top is under formation, expecting a Seasonally Bearish January 2014.
4.Any decline emerging in Jan , can continue for about a month.

Short term volatility is down sharply. It may remain like this till the Top formation process continues.

Invest Wisely,

Turtle

manojkr78 · Green Belt Joined: 07 Mar 2011 Posts: 1014

hi turtlecsi,

my understanding from your post is that nifty can decline next week after making temp top and the break all time high, is that right??

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

Dear Manoj,

I am expecting Nifty to stay positive (Price range-6550-6600) till 2nd week of January 2014. And then start a correction ( breach of 6000) till early Feb 2014.

There could be some pull backs lasting 1-2 days in between. But the structure should remain Bullish till 10-13th Jan 2014.

At the same time keeping a close eye on 60M chart will save me from Getting married to my Opinion and loose money. I am flexible enough to accept and react when Market Action moves contrary to my model.

Invest Wisely,

Turtle

manojkr78 · Green Belt Joined: 07 Mar 2011 Posts: 1014

tnx...

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

"Wish you all a very Happy and Wealthy New Year 2014"

Nothing much is happening in terms of Nifty movement. Looking at Market Breadth, tomorrow is likely to be a Negative day. I am expecting Range Expansion happening tomorrow. Today Nifty has tested the support Trend line and falling below today's Low will trigger the short trade. If we trade below 6260 for more than 3 hours , 60M Trend will turn Negative. January being a seasonally Bearish month we need to pay attention.

Invest Wisely,

Turtle

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

As indicated in the previous post, Nifty closed hard down on 2nd Jan with Range expansion. This has resulted in turning down both the 60M and the Daily trends.

If Nifty had taken out 6415 in Dec 13 itself, that would have increased the odds of a new high in Jan 2014. There is a good probability that we may not see a Good High till the month of March 14. There are multiple supports around sub-5900 level. Holding these levels in the coming days, we may see Nifty rally around 6700-6900 odd levels in March 2014.

Invest Wisely,

Turtle

manojkr78 · Green Belt Joined: 07 Mar 2011 Posts: 1014

Turtlecsi,

Wishing you happy new year.....

Can we initiate short trade on monday??

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

Dear Manoj,

Consider putting on a Put Bear Spread involving appropriate strike prices.

Invest Wisely,

Turtle

manojkr78 · Green Belt Joined: 07 Mar 2011 Posts: 1014

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

US Dollar Index seems to be in Breakout mode. INRUSD seems to be gunning for 64.5-65 in the coming days. Further weakness in INR will lead to Sell-Off in Nifty going ahead.

Invest Wisely,

Turtle

manojkr78 · Green Belt Joined: 07 Mar 2011 Posts: 1014

thanks for your views....