iCharts Discussions

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

Dear vpk_786,

I use both Price & Time Analysis for analyzing the Trends in Nifty/Sensex. I always elaborate about price analysis.... like Support/resistance, VIX, Currency, Breadth etc. But Time is something that I prefer not to discuss. A lot of hard work has gone into it. However, on a stand-alone basis, it has a success rate of 50% or less. I use it conjunction with Price analysis, and its success rate goes up.

Hope you understand....

Invest Wisely...

Turtle

vpk_786 · White Belt Joined: 25 Nov 2013 Posts: 31

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

It would be interesting to see if Nifty closes below 6260 today. If that happens 60M Trend would turn Negative and we could be looking at Breach of 6000 till 3rd Week of Feb 2014(Extreme TGT 5800-odd level....)

Invest Wisely,

Turtle

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

Latest Observations:

1. 60M Trend is Positive
2. Daily Trend is Neutral
3. Pivot is at 6270. Trading below this level for 3-4 hours 60M Trend will turn Negative.
4. Major Supports are Below 5900.
5. Short term Breadth in close to Over-Bought level. Intermediate Breadth is still OB.
6. Market is Probably waiting for RBI Policy to find Direction.

Invest Wisely,

Turtle

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

Latest Observations:

1. 60M Trend is Positive. Daily Trend is Neutral.
2. Breadth is Over Bought.
3. Pivot is at 6290. Trading below 6290 for 3-4 hours 60M trend will switch to Negative.

With RBI policy on 28th Jan, FOMC on 29th and Union Budget on 17th Feb ... Market will try to Price in Volatility in to Options Premium. We can see VIX Rising and Market correcting... before these events....

Invest Wisely,

Turtle

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

As indicated in the previous post, we are witnessing increase in Volatility.

Latest Observations:

1. 60M trend is Negative. Daily trend is Neutral.
2. Intermediate term Breadth is Over-Bought.
3. Short Term Breadth is getting Over-Sold. Nifty must witness supply below today's Low to continue moving down. Or else, it may Fail as it did on 17th Jan...
4. Short term Supports @ 6200-6150. Major Support @ 5900.

Happy Weekend...

Invest Wisely,

Turtle

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

"Market Direction may not change till the last Bull is killed. "

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

Latest observations:

1. Both 60M and Daily trends are Negative.
2. Intermediate term Breadth is Over-Bought.
3. Short Term Breadth Confirms Distribution taking place.
4. Even though both Nifty & Sensex are holding above their Dec lows, Broad Market indices like CNX100 & CNX500, have Confirmed Break-down below their Dec lows.
5. VIX looks over-extended. If we see Nifty pull back for 1-3 days going ahead, and if trend it Negative , one can add to Short positions.

Invest Wisely...

Turtle

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

Latest Observations:

1. Both 60M & Daily trends are Negative.

2. Intermediate Term Breadth is still Over-Bought.

3. Short term Breadth indicates the Pull-Back got over today. Down trend is likely to Resume.

Following are few personal OPINIONS...(My interpretations could be Biased)

1. The way most Central Bankers have increased Rates in the last couple of Days, it may be possible that FOMC's Policy actions tonight may lead to a Global Sell-Off tomorrow.

2. The most probable time for a good low could be the 2nd week of Feb 2014. And the probable price could be Breach of 5800.

(My trades are based on my Observations, and Opinions are Just Opinions. I do not trade them.)

Invest Wisely,

Turtle

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

Key numbers I would be watching on Friday, if Nifty is able to close above 6129...or better still above 6177.

Invest Wisely,

Turtle

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

Latest Observations:

Nifty Spot could not breached Dec 2013 high of 6415 in January 2014 as indicated in my earlier posts. Although it made several attempts-unsuccessfully. And we have closed below 6129 (Dec 2013-Low) and 6177 ( Nov-2013 monthly close). This has Bearish implications in the Short term. This can lead to a Technical Sell-Off, with Price objective of 5900 or below in the coming Days.

1. Both 60M and Daily trends are Negative.

2. Intermediate term Breadth is Neutral.

3. Short term Breadth is over-Bought.

4. 5th-6th Feb 2014 Turn Dates. The turn date 16th Jan was fairly accurate, as most indices Topped out on that day.

5. First line of Support --5900-5850--.

6. Major Support-- 5810-5750.

Invest Wisely,

Turtle

manojkr78 · Green Belt Joined: 07 Mar 2011 Posts: 1014

turtle,

thanks for your valuable views......your views are very precise and helpful....keep posting

manoj

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

Thanks Manoj for the feedback...

Keeping a close eye on 5970 for the day. It will determine the extent of correction in the coming days...

Invest Wisely,

Turtle

turtlecsi · White Belt Joined: 28 Jan 2010 Posts: 196

Nifty failed to take out 5970 today. This rules out possibility of a drop towards 5750-5700 in the short term. But the possibility of breach of 5900 -5850 in the next couple of sessions is very much there.

US markets are looking weak. Breakdown from consolidation of last 5 sessions is highly probable.

Invest Wisely,

Turtle