iCharts Discussions

Stockhunter · White Belt Joined: 10 Jun 2008 Posts: 193

Markets slipped today and I am happy i did not close all short positions yesterday .. only 50%.

As mentioned yesterday that if Nifty falls below 3170 I will open new shorts.. I opened new shorts at the opening gap down itself and booked them at close of play.

My average shorts have now moved upto 3525. The 3400 calls shed a lot of value today but I would hold on to them as hedge since my avg shorts are above 3400 anyways. I would rather write them off at expiry than book loss on them.

For bears... the retracement on weekly charts got resisted at 38% levels (3170)which is a good signal. They should hope this level should not be broken for a slide down and the retest of the lows.

For bulls, not all is lost since on EOD we are still holding above 38% retracement levels to the current rally ( i.e 2300 to 3150). A rebound up and crossing of 3170 would be good for bulls.

Me... I am still bearish until 3170 is crossed .... till that time i will keep on playing intraday swings on either long or short side and take my short average as up as possible.

Cheers

Stockhunter · White Belt Joined: 10 Jun 2008 Posts: 193

Markets moved further down on Wednesday and my shorts are sitting pretty.

For Bulls - The 5th November bearish engulfing candle on Nifty future EOD gives a target of 2640 which is coincidentally 62% retracement levels of the recent rally as well. MACD lines are rising after making a fresh low, just like back in July where we had a 800 point rally bringing the MACD lines into positive territory before they went back down again. If the 62% levels support and MACD theory hold true ... we should see 3600 or above this month itself.

For Bears - There was a gap left on NF charts on 28th October gap up opening between 2572 & 2640. If the japanese saying is true that all gaps must be closed ... we have a further downside left so shorts can be held till 3170 is breached. In any case global news is gloomy and things wont improve overnight in any case.

Myself - I am still bearish but will start taking money off the table at around 2600 levels or if 3170 is breached.

By the way ... I have longed crude as an investment now .... Very Happy

Cheers

Stockhunter · White Belt Joined: 10 Jun 2008 Posts: 193

Market continues to grind down gradually... I am still sticking to my short positions and nothing new to add...

I am still bearish but will start taking money off the table at around 2600 levels or if 3170 is breached.

and .. my crude longs have also starte to move in profits...

Cheers

Stockhunter · White Belt Joined: 10 Jun 2008 Posts: 193

on 17th, markets opened weak but closed strongly in the end. We have a doji on EOD which is still above an important level becuase of which we can't write off a rally.

EOD longs at the day end gave good returns and pushed the average of my shorts to 3600.

I am still holding short positions in Nifty and RIL.

Cheers

Stockhunter · White Belt Joined: 10 Jun 2008 Posts: 193

Markets see-sawed today which was good from an intraday trading perspective.

Markets are still above the crucial level of 2650 hence hope still eft for bulls. actually its a good spot to initiate a long since the stop loss is very small.

However I continue to stay bearish and will cover only if we have a couple of days rally...

Cheers

Stockhunter · White Belt Joined: 10 Jun 2008 Posts: 193

Markets have continued to grind down in last two days and my NF shorts are more than 1000 points plus now. The markets have closed below an important retracement level and hence look further weak, we have a possibility of seeing new lows. TSL now at 2800 instead of 3150 earlier.

Similarly RIL, which was holding up for the last 3-4 days finally broke down. I have moved my TSL to 1225 now on Reliance short.

For bulls - However we might also see a classical double bottom being formed and that should cheer some of the bulls.

I continue to stay bearish however have started accmulating some good stocks as an investment for next 5 years. I think its a good time to start building a portfolio with investing 20% of overall investment capital with every 150 point drop in nifty from here on. This would mean if Nifty hits 1950 I will be fully invested with an average of 2250 Nifty.. and i dont think Nifty will stay below 2250 for the next 5 years!

Cheers

Stockhunter · White Belt Joined: 10 Jun 2008 Posts: 193

Nifty made smart gains yesterday and held onto those gains today. On weekly charts, the intermediate to long term signals are still bearish until we have a weekly close above 3200 levels.

On EOD charts, people hve started looking for reversal patterns line inverted H&S, double bottoms etc. There is some positive divergence also visible to some on MACD & RSI. However these signals would get confirmed only if NIfty is first able to breach 2800 and then 3000. I would not open positional longs until 3000 is breached.

On the contrary, the traders can be presented with another positional shorting opportunity around 2900 levels if we have the right bearish signals following immediately like MACD crossover or STS crossover. The target can be a new around 2000.

I continue to hold my NF positional shorts with an SL of 2800 however I have exited by RIL shorts today.

Cheers

Stockhunter · White Belt Joined: 10 Jun 2008 Posts: 193

Markets opened above 2800 today (above my SL) however slided to 2770 in the firt 15 minutes of trade hence did not let me exit my shorts. December NF was trading at a small premium today hence I rolled over my NF shorts to Dec....short positions are safe until Nifty closes above 2800 on an EOD basis.

Reliance shorts proved to be good exit yesterday and it gave me another chance to short today at a higher rate near 1170.... it has closed below yesterday's lows hence looks very weak right now and can go to triple digits soon... Reliance can be shorted with an SL of 1200 on a closing basis.

Another stock which i have recently started tracking and trading is Unitech... it looks weak but is very close to it support levels (recent lows). Its in the oversold zone again and can bounce back to 35 and above levels. Unitech can be bought at current price of 28-29 with an SL of 26. It is also a good time to turn an investor on Unitech and average at around 15-20 again it it comes.

Cheers

Stockhunter · White Belt Joined: 10 Jun 2008 Posts: 193

Markets rallied on Wednesday and held on to those gains today.... However I will continue to hold my short positions until 2800 on NS is breached on an EOD basis.

Still holding Reliance shorts as well will 1200 as SL.

I think the market is setting up for a rally upto 3200 levels though .. lets wait and watch though !

I bought Unitech today at 23 !

cheers

pradyehv · White Belt Joined: 09 Jan 2007 Posts: 43

SH,
nice analysis and thnx again for sharing.
could you also share what r the options you are writing ?

keep rocking!!!
cheers
prad

Stockhunter · White Belt Joined: 10 Jun 2008 Posts: 193

Prady - I had written 3300 calls last month and had written 2300 puts for this series yesterday.. however I squared those off today and actually bought 2300 puts.

Markets have failed to close above 2800 on an EOD basis hence I am still holding my shorts on NF (avg from 3620 now) and shorts on RIL since 1170 (TSL of 1150 on a closing basis).

I added some puts today (2300 puts).

Cheers

Stockhunter · White Belt Joined: 10 Jun 2008 Posts: 193

Markets continue to be in a range and volatility continues to fall .... Nifty has not closed above 2800 yet hence i continue to hold my bearish positions.

MACD continues to rise supporting the markets and the STS is also turned up ... good signals for short term longs.. however broader trend is still down and hence not playing these longs...

Cheers

vinst · Black Belt Joined: 09 Jan 2007 Posts: 3303

may be tommorrow we'll have nifty closing above 2800, looking at rise in global indices.
regards,
vin

Stockhunter · White Belt Joined: 10 Jun 2008 Posts: 193

Finally on 10th Dec Nifty closed above 2800 and RIL above 1200 hence i have closed my positional shorts (for the time being though). Markets short term indicators are bullish however for positional i will wait for NIfty to get weak again to open a short.....

Right now its time to play this upswing with light volume or intraday upto 3000/3200 ....

Will post when I see a fresh positional opportunity....

Cheers

Stockhunter · White Belt Joined: 10 Jun 2008 Posts: 193

Nifty remained weak throughout the day before the last minute dash to close almost where it opened giving a hammerish kind of doji.....

Intraday shorts gaves good returns (with one whipsaw) and the last 15 mins long trade was superb!

Positionally, the short term bullish swing is still in operation however broader trend is still down. Its not a good place to open any positional trades however I decided to put some money at risk to see if this short term strength takes the markets to 3000-3200.

For this I have bought Dec 3000 calls @ 79 and sold Dec 3300 calls for 9. Net impact = Maximum possible loss 70 points per lot, Maximum possible profit 291 points per lot.

Cheers