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READING THE LINE [DAY TRADERS MIND] - FUTURES ONLY |
amitagg Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559
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Post: #1021 Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2014 3:21 pm Post subject: |
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amitagg wrote: | So again can see how after my posting it has slide from 5355 to 5325
Dollar index can retrace a bit and hence some sideways to down action
Remember that when dollar index was 80 and Inr was 60.16 I had remarked that Inr was most interesting poised and to rise which has happened |
So in live commentary which I am stopping (not feeling exactly well.)...
You shall heed my words also that intra price action has to be seen
For example I had mentioned in morning post to book 2 profit at 5363 but it touched only 5357 and I timely posted and squared my longs at 5355 ( all 3)
So u can imagine that trading cannot be posted always....... |
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mikky Green Belt
Joined: 16 Feb 2014 Posts: 1442
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Post: #1022 Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2014 4:56 pm Post subject: |
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Thank you Amit!!!
amitagg wrote: | Mikky
Buy today NOV one lot at 5349 and other at 5335 and another at 5316..... And wait till it gives profit.......target 5363 for 2 and 5388 for other ( try to book on average 20 points profit per day)
It is bottom of cycle so don't worry if it hits 5280..... But again.....
( now this is not trading style..... I want to trade with " full confidence" in my ew sit-ups...... So this type of buying lower and lower behaviour is NOT suited 80-90 percent of time BUT these days it is not that time)
Nymex has hit 87 ... My target few weeks back given....
It shall still hit 85 meaning 120 points down ..... But expecting ew pullback suggesting buying only at these levels.... Even sideways moves has give profit
Like yesterday I averaged and profited...... It is 5 of 5 wave and may be stil 1 with downside left
Inr is often a maker or spoiler
Expect range bound moves from 5280-5420 now for few days or higher but not lower .... So buy lower ranges and avoid selling when other TA a would be suggesting a sell
Booking early losses in crude is detrimental.... Rather keep trading lots very thin
This is in advance of market opening and seeing price action
I anticipate my steps and can change those steps seeing market action eg u can see my post and chart how inverted hs formed above 5365 after 5 waves yesterday and " immediately" it hit 5391
However during morning afternoon I do not see actual price charts with indicators just a price line.....In evening I can predict infra day moves much better
( I can give set ups and entries but exit have to be " extremely swift" and to make sure each day is profit) |
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amitagg Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559
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Post: #1023 Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2014 7:57 pm Post subject: |
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3 lots bought at 5295 as per afternoon bids and price when noticed last was 5290
I expect sharp bounce back from 5215-5250 levels ...... Those interested may not miss the opportunity .... I am buying at every level in that region
Stop can be 5100 ( calculated by various methods ) crude I'm extreme bearishness can hit 4950
Target 5390/5460 easy 1:1 and more..... Or as per appetite
Let's see
When i trade I don't worry |
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amitagg Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559
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Post: #1024 Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2014 10:20 pm Post subject: |
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amitagg wrote: | 5th wave of ABC of C can hit 85.1 (A=C)
extended C can hit 81 after a retrace over few weeks/ month. [ i am not basing my trade decisions on this possibility]
so some more downside left before positional rise...........
current 87.5 (5350). Take decisions accordingly.
I am sticking to my trading plan for today, since intra day / 2-3 days plan. |
Currently 85.7...... I am adding longs. |
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amitagg Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559
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Post: #1025 Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 10:06 am Post subject: |
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Have had to double @ 5195 average
( May be it shall hit 81 and bounce back)
It's bottom of trend channel for nymex
Cmp 5125
For SL it has to fall below 5100 and then shall sell the retrace
83.7 cmp
On another count if is (iiii) only of 3 of V in progress and iv pullback on long side pending
And later (v) of 3 and also 5 to unfold till 75 |
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amitagg Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559
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Post: #1026 Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 10:14 am Post subject: |
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I expect this to be a "professional gap down" based on "supply demand " and market to retrace to fill gap to 5230
( in one of kind events which occur very few months / years) - all estimations can go awry)
Have to trade the plan / ew counts in all occasions |
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amitagg Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559
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Post: #1027 Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 11:38 am Post subject: |
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Good to see chart and view contributions also for commodities in icharts
To take long term crude counts, crude is giving an abc x abc combo
Hence I draw the trend line not as per convention by joining 3 points BUT
What the ew 0-2 or 2-4 are over the long term
Looking at that for me crude is completing is longer term correction and is forming final c of the quote above
Could not get to draw in actual chart but only observed ....
Like nifty formed a "C" low at 5116 for all EW time frames which shall not be broken in our lives.......
Crude May form at in 70-81 region.( not remembering precise levels)..... Actual log chart long term 2000 or 1980 odd if someone has pls post ... We shall all see that and mutually analyse
For me it is I'm very lower ranges
( this is for chart study since trading is altogether different ball game)
Long term Log chart is required to see timing of the bottom after drawing a Chanel from at low 2-4 or 0-2 point
Then we can break he waves as per our interpretation and analyse |
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amitagg Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559
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Post: #1028 Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 1:59 pm Post subject: |
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CMP 5175
have averaged "all" to 5190.....resistance 5194/5201/5220/5230 for today......
TSL for todays' trades at cost 5130.....
intra day buy now (me not ) since the start from 5123 is likelty to move us in 5-3-5 or ABC, with B at 61.8% to 5144 so considering 80% retrace put stop at 5130............
shall add lower to 5030-5080 levels if the trades for today hits the stop (at cost) at 5130......
otherwise shall exit at 5200 region today's trades (to lighten up).......(holding balance 50% approx) for later......or till 5230/5266 (shall watch price action then and decide)
amitagg wrote: | Have had to double @ 5195 average
( May be it shall hit 81 and bounce back)
It's bottom of trend channel for nymex
Cmp 5125
For SL it has to fall below 5100 and then shall sell the retrace
83.7 cmp
On another count if is (iiii) only of 3 of V in progress and iv pullback on long side pending
And later (v) of 3 and also 5 to unfold till 75 |
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amitagg Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559
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Post: #1029 Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 2:10 pm Post subject: |
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CMP 5162....i expect it to hit 5194 today
amitagg wrote: | CMP 5175
have averaged "all" to 5190.....resistance 5194/5201/5220/5230 for today......
TSL for todays' trades at cost 5130.....
intra day buy now (me not ) since the start from 5123 is likelty to move us in 5-3-5 or ABC, with B at 61.8% to 5144 so considering 80% retrace put stop at 5130............
shall add lower to 5030-5080 levels if the trades for today hits the stop (at cost) at 5130......
otherwise shall exit at 5200 region today's trades (to lighten up).......(holding balance 50% approx) for later......or till 5230/5266 (shall watch price action then and decide)
amitagg wrote: | Have had to double @ 5195 average
( May be it shall hit 81 and bounce back)
It's bottom of trend channel for nymex
Cmp 5125
For SL it has to fall below 5100 and then shall sell the retrace
83.7 cmp
On another count if is (iiii) only of 3 of V in progress and iv pullback on long side pending
And later (v) of 3 and also 5 to unfold till 75 |
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amitagg Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559
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Post: #1030 Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 2:18 pm Post subject: |
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further if my ew prognosis is correct "just the 3" from today shall have minimum target of 5186...with % whether it is 5-5-5 zizzag or ABC correct since C is also a 5-wave......shall be above 5200 quite clearly.....lets see
for conservative traders, the trendline from low of today can be trailing stop.....not for me.. i dont mind exiting todays at cost
amitagg wrote: | CMP 5162....i expect it to hit 5194 today
amitagg wrote: | CMP 5175
have averaged "all" to 5190.....resistance 5194/5201/5220/5230 for today......
TSL for todays' trades at cost 5130.....
intra day buy now (me not ) since the start from 5123 is likelty to move us in 5-3-5 or ABC, with B at 61.8% to 5144 so considering 80% retrace put stop at 5130............
shall add lower to 5030-5080 levels if the trades for today hits the stop (at cost) at 5130......
otherwise shall exit at 5200 region today's trades (to lighten up).......(holding balance 50% approx) for later......or till 5230/5266 (shall watch price action then and decide)
amitagg wrote: | Have had to double @ 5195 average
( May be it shall hit 81 and bounce back)
It's bottom of trend channel for nymex
Cmp 5125
For SL it has to fall below 5100 and then shall sell the retrace
83.7 cmp
On another count if is (iiii) only of 3 of V in progress and iv pullback on long side pending
And later (v) of 3 and also 5 to unfold till 75 |
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amitagg Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559
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Post: #1031 Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 2:22 pm Post subject: |
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there are "multiple" "4" waves working today which are supporting the rise....ie "corrective bull" waves..also i expect this to be not a "flat" so likely up to 5201/5207 today itself
amitagg wrote: | further if my ew prognosis is correct "just the 3" from today shall have minimum target of 5186...with % whether it is 5-5-5 zizzag or ABC correct since C is also a 5-wave......shall be above 5200 quite clearly.....lets see
for conservative traders, the trendline from low of today can be trailing stop.....not for me.. i dont mind exiting todays at cost
amitagg wrote: | CMP 5162....i expect it to hit 5194 today
amitagg wrote: | CMP 5175
have averaged "all" to 5190.....resistance 5194/5201/5220/5230 for today......
TSL for todays' trades at cost 5130.....
intra day buy now (me not ) since the start from 5123 is likelty to move us in 5-3-5 or ABC, with B at 61.8% to 5144 so considering 80% retrace put stop at 5130............
shall add lower to 5030-5080 levels if the trades for today hits the stop (at cost) at 5130......
otherwise shall exit at 5200 region today's trades (to lighten up).......(holding balance 50% approx) for later......or till 5230/5266 (shall watch price action then and decide)
amitagg wrote: | Have had to double @ 5195 average
( May be it shall hit 81 and bounce back)
It's bottom of trend channel for nymex
Cmp 5125
For SL it has to fall below 5100 and then shall sell the retrace
83.7 cmp
On another count if is (iiii) only of 3 of V in progress and iv pullback on long side pending
And later (v) of 3 and also 5 to unfold till 75 |
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amitagg Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559
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Post: #1032 Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 2:25 pm Post subject: |
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while this is my intuitive ew analsyis, the "system" itself shall trigger an intra buy on 30tf moves above 5177 (IF it happens)...quite often the impulse is kept till end of day. |
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amitagg Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559
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Post: #1033 Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 3:10 pm Post subject: |
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All trades replicated by my trades have reached near cost.....at 5184-5188..... I am holding for a 20 pointer evening gain....( IF it comes about)
Expect 5203 where the first resistance shall be hit.... It can easily travel to 5230 in one spark |
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amitagg Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559
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Post: #1034 Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 4:13 pm Post subject: |
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I have staggered sell bids at 5205/5212/5225/5243 otherwise back to square one as in morning today if Tsl goes at 5130 |
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amitagg Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559
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Post: #1035 Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 4:34 pm Post subject: |
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amitagg wrote: | I have staggered sell bids at 5205/5212/5225/5243 otherwise back to square one as in morning today if Tsl goes at 5130 |
cmp 5191....as per my previous experience....it should rise from here on also.......above 5205....then i am not sure which way it shall go
often this movement is accompanied by vertical spike up of 20-30 points |
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