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READING THE LINE [DAY TRADERS MIND] - FUTURES ONLY |
amitagg
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Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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Post: #856  Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:27 pm Post subject: |
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markets are trying to reach the top, and in so doing sucking in positional bulls and not allowing intra shorts to succeed.........
above 7675F NF which is also 61.% retrace and previous gap support which was breached, markets would immediately rally to 7720-7746 [and 7786 clearing].....
but considering overhead resitances and events out, best opportunity to sell positional Aug series.......waiting for last crack.......below 7530 NF to initiate the shorts and below 7595 NF a confirmation....... |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
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| Post: #857 Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2014 10:09 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | markets are trying to reach the top, and in so doing sucking in positional bulls and not allowing intra shorts to succeed.........
above 7675F NF which is also 61.% retrace and previous gap support which was breached, markets would immediately rally to 7720-7746 [and 7786 clearing].....
but considering overhead resitances and events out, best opportunity to sell positional Aug series.......waiting for last crack.......below 7530 NF to initiate the shorts and below 7595 NF a confirmation....... |
so its trading that matters.....both bulls and bears make money in same market....trading different time frames or strategies......
the bear value of 7530 was not triggered......
and now still a LOWER LOW below 7809 shall be made....and a fall shall occur below 7500.......
higher the sell trigger kicks in, higher the profits,.........its sideways 300-400 consl in roaring bull market.....and near the top except 0-50 points....for positional shorts to kick in [after seeing down price move and inability to sustain the highs on lower tfs]..... |
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amitagg
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Posts: 4559
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| Post: #858 Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2014 3:04 pm Post subject: |
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despite views posted, only gone for "cash neutral"
- bought 7500/7600 puts Aug @ 40 and
- sold 8100 Aug call @ 40.............average quantities
"breakout" levels JT may post next month shall be around 8005/ 8144 assuming 7930 touched this month and closing around 7865....[basis this assumption gone for above strategy].....
hedge put cost while open 8100+ risk |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #859 Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2014 3:07 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | despite views posted, only gone for "cash neutral"
- bought 7500/7600 puts Aug @ 40 and
- sold 8100 Aug call @ 40.............average quantities
"breakout" levels JT may post next month shall be around 8005/ 8144 assuming 7930 touched this month and closing around 7865....[basis this assumption gone for above strategy].....
hedge put cost while open 8100+ risk |
further taken small qnty in selling 7850 call @ 40...july....since markets as per precedents should not have expiry above 7892...... |
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amitagg
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Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #860 Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2014 7:16 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | despite views posted, only gone for "cash neutral"
- bought 7500/7600 puts Aug @ 40 and
- sold 8100 Aug call @ 40.............average quantities
"breakout" levels JT may post next month shall be around 8005/ 8144 assuming 7930 touched this month and closing around 7865....[basis this assumption gone for above strategy].....
hedge put cost while open 8100+ risk |
further taken small qnty in selling 7850 call @ 40...july....since markets as per precedents should not have expiry above 7892...... |
markets can deceive to rise vertically in 2 days till monday to 7950 NS and then fall back below 7900 / 7865........[shall look to smaller exit short call but not on gap up opening if it happens]..... |
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mikky
Green Belt
Joined: 16 Feb 2014
Posts: 1442
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| Post: #861 Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2014 1:06 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | despite views posted, only gone for "cash neutral"
- bought 7500/7600 puts Aug @ 40 and
- sold 8100 Aug call @ 40.............average quantities
"breakout" levels JT may post next month shall be around 8005/ 8144 assuming 7930 touched this month and closing around 7865....[basis this assumption gone for above strategy].....
hedge put cost while open 8100+ risk |
further taken small qnty in selling 7850 call @ 40...july....since markets as per precedents should not have expiry above 7892...... |
markets can deceive to rise vertically in 2 days till monday to 7950 NS and then fall back below 7900 / 7865........[shall look to smaller exit short call but not on gap up opening if it happens]..... |
Hope you are holding your SHORTS |
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amitagg
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Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #862 Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2014 1:33 pm Post subject: |
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| mikky wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | despite views posted, only gone for "cash neutral"
- bought 7500/7600 puts Aug @ 40 and
- sold 8100 Aug call @ 40.............average quantities
"breakout" levels JT may post next month shall be around 8005/ 8144 assuming 7930 touched this month and closing around 7865....[basis this assumption gone for above strategy].....
hedge put cost while open 8100+ risk |
further taken small qnty in selling 7850 call @ 40...july....since markets as per precedents should not have expiry above 7892...... |
markets can deceive to rise vertically in 2 days till monday to 7950 NS and then fall back below 7900 / 7865........[shall look to smaller exit short call but not on gap up opening if it happens]..... |
Hope you are holding your SHORTS |
no...short call taken at 40 exited at 31 today at open.....only Rs 9 as i mentioned....
holding August ones and shall hold for the long one..... markets bearish below 7760.... |
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amitagg
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Posts: 4559
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| Post: #863 Posted: Sun Jul 27, 2014 1:38 pm Post subject: |
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My view on nifty as on date is as under: ( these are generic levels and can be up down 30-50-70 points)
- retrace not below 7500 ( only below 7620, 7500 can be hit, first support at my number of 7670 again which shall decide whether we are up or in retrace mode)
- next 2-4 months markets to test 8300 consolidate and then break in one go and test even higher level of 8700-9000 odd ( whether market would break 8300-8400 would depend upon time, for instance till dec 14 if markets below 8400 then that shall be top for us to touch 7000/6400 again
- more volatility and range expansion after one month.....
- I would still refrain from shorts at 7500-7600 levels
- I would look to only long above 7880 spot.....
- if we remain below 7900 for 2 months, 7800-7900 shall be the top and we shall touch 7000-6400 first before hitting 8400
So timing to be seen with every market move not just levels
( above is also subjective analysis ) |
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amitagg
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Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #864 Posted: Mon Jul 28, 2014 9:43 am Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | My view on nifty as on date is as under: ( these are generic levels and can be up down 30-50-70 points)
- retrace not below 7500 ( only below 7620, 7500 can be hit, first support at my number of 7670 again which shall decide whether we are up or in retrace mode)
- next 2-4 months markets to test 8300 consolidate and then break in one go and test even higher level of 8700-9000 odd ( whether market would break 8300-8400 would depend upon time, for instance till dec 14 if markets below 8400 then that shall be top for us to touch 7000/6400 again
- more volatility and range expansion after one month.....
- I would still refrain from shorts at 7500-7600 levels
- I would look to only long above 7880 spot.....
- if we remain below 7900 for 2 months, 7800-7900 shall be the top and we shall touch 7000-6400 first before hitting 8400
So timing to be seen with every market move not just levels
( above is also subjective analysis ) |
Have exited short 8100 call on 25 percent gain...and therefore exited the long otm put..... Since realised market not closed below 60 tf low in Friday and in no bull no bear zone...... Also would refrain from buying otm puts in average quantities rather ITM when opportunity arises with closer stop.....
Would like to buy otm calls if they fall to 10-20 levels....
Waiting waiting for expiry and 2 days actin next to decide next months movement
Trade entry would be much easier then..... |
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amitagg
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Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #865 Posted: Mon Jul 28, 2014 12:49 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | My view on nifty as on date is as under: ( these are generic levels and can be up down 30-50-70 points)
- retrace not below 7500 ( only below 7620, 7500 can be hit, first support at my number of 7670 again which shall decide whether we are up or in retrace mode)
- next 2-4 months markets to test 8300 consolidate and then break in one go and test even higher level of 8700-9000 odd ( whether market would break 8300-8400 would depend upon time, for instance till dec 14 if markets below 8400 then that shall be top for us to touch 7000/6400 again
- more volatility and range expansion after one month.....
- I would still refrain from shorts at 7500-7600 levels
- I would look to only long above 7880 spot.....
- if we remain below 7900 for 2 months, 7800-7900 shall be the top and we shall touch 7000-6400 first before hitting 8400
So timing to be seen with every market move not just levels
( above is also subjective analysis ) |
Have exited short 8100 call on 25 percent gain...and therefore exited the long otm put..... Since realised market not closed below 60 tf low in Friday and in no bull no bear zone...... Also would refrain from buying otm puts in average quantities rather ITM when opportunity arises with closer stop.....
Would like to buy otm calls if they fall to 10-20 levels....
Waiting waiting for expiry and 2 days actin next to decide next months movement
Trade entry would be much easier then..... |
booked Rahuls short 15tf trade in lager quantity at 7530.....markets can slide to 7705-7688 supports.....show H&S formation.... trickle down to 7620-7650....and then rise above 7865 or touch it........
7522-7532 demand area on daily...short term bounce posible.....but Rahils method to give 20-30 points extra below 7522....NF July |
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amitagg
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Posts: 4559
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| Post: #866 Posted: Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:17 pm Post subject: |
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beauty of Rahuls strategy is that is captures intra day bearishness very well....otherwise 15tf + WW current above 7730 targetting 7820 just now....
market actually break 1 3 5 line move to gap suppot at 7688-7705.....30 points from 7745 sell trigger.....
then move higher validating the WW.....if breaks above 1 3 5 line a scenario |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #867 Posted: Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:51 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | beauty of Rahuls strategy is that is captures intra day bearishness very well....otherwise 15tf + WW current above 7730 targetting 7820 just now....
market actually break 1 3 5 line move to gap suppot at 7688-7705.....30 points from 7745 sell trigger.....
then move higher validating the WW.....if breaks above 1 3 5 line a scenario |
but as i remarked in welgros thread Demand supply zones work 90% in intra day.....7722 was not touched 7724....then 7443.....near sell level .....markets would close around 7730-7735......bearish only below 7729........
now trade done for the day.....only whipsaws shall come from now on.....for pure 8-10-20 point intra day players......
had sold for 8 points below 7731 also.......basis 0tf trade.....
below 7737 is shall hit 7730 again now if someone wants to try the luck.... |
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amitagg
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Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #868 Posted: Mon Jul 28, 2014 3:33 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | beauty of Rahuls strategy is that is captures intra day bearishness very well....otherwise 15tf + WW current above 7730 targetting 7820 just now....
market actually break 1 3 5 line move to gap suppot at 7688-7705.....30 points from 7745 sell trigger.....
then move higher validating the WW.....if breaks above 1 3 5 line a scenario |
but as i remarked in welgros thread Demand supply zones work 90% in intra day.....7722 was not touched 7724....then 7443.....near sell level .....markets would close around 7730-7735......bearish only below 7729........
now trade done for the day.....only whipsaws shall come from now on.....for pure 8-10-20 point intra day players......
had sold for 8 points below 7731 also.......basis 0tf trade.....
below 7737 is shall hit 7730 again now if someone wants to try the luck.... |
As expected markets didn't give a break down......and closed around 7735.....
Again holding shorts at 7740 level 15 tf.... Stop 7767. ( as per Rahul method)
Had traded one intra day as mentioned in earlier posts |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #869 Posted: Wed Jul 30, 2014 12:31 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | beauty of Rahuls strategy is that is captures intra day bearishness very well....otherwise 15tf + WW current above 7730 targetting 7820 just now....
market actually break 1 3 5 line move to gap suppot at 7688-7705.....30 points from 7745 sell trigger.....
then move higher validating the WW.....if breaks above 1 3 5 line a scenario |
but as i remarked in welgros thread Demand supply zones work 90% in intra day.....7722 was not touched 7724....then 7443.....near sell level .....markets would close around 7730-7735......bearish only below 7729........
now trade done for the day.....only whipsaws shall come from now on.....for pure 8-10-20 point intra day players......
had sold for 8 points below 7731 also.......basis 0tf trade.....
below 7737 is shall hit 7730 again now if someone wants to try the luck.... |
As expected markets didn't give a break down......and closed around 7735.....
Again holding shorts at 7740 level 15 tf.... Stop 7767. ( as per Rahul method)
Had traded one intra day as mentioned in earlier posts |
Exited Rahul shorts at nominal profit.. Due to time taken..... Still 7688-7703 is my expectation of market move.... |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #870 Posted: Wed Jul 30, 2014 2:14 pm Post subject: |
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August Monthly Levels [ a volatile expiry can change these ]
Levels for August 14
Above 7905 will be breakout zone for targets of 7960,8025, 8083
Below 7845 will trade lower to 7775, 7710, 7660 where it should find support and move up.
Above 7760 targets are 7807, 7845 - BUY above 7760 only
Final support will be around 7630 - Sell below 7630 only
Below 7615 it will trade down to 7595, 7550, 7488
Below 7480 (may be 7430) it will breakdown.
above buy sell are 21-28 days trades....
Regards |
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