iCharts Discussions

[vinay28]

amit, I don't know what strategy you follow but, to the best of my knowledge, SL of ALL positional shorts was hit long back. What's more, there must be ome caveat with your strategy to go long e.g. you have said that you won't wait above 6050. But according to me, if nifty continues to go up but doesn't cross 6094, it may become a strong short. So what does your strategy say? Because, as per your statement, you will go long above 6050 while opposite may happen. Just a thought.

[amitagg]

We should not target 6093 but the trendline resistance of 2 tops around 5980-6022....also
This would be forced stop ...unless I see market other way that point...

Position shorts should have closed at 5550...only above 5850 is a "buy of dips"...dips may be till 5650-5720...sell market below 5550...that's what I feel.

Looking at longer term charts I don't see this as a strong upmove UNLESS WE SEE WHAT HAPPENS ON ThE end of REACTION of this upmove...then only one can say the "strength of market"

I would book profits over the next few weeks....SL if unable to meet committment at 6050 (twin closing above) then shall see...also one can SELL again if 6093 hits and SELL triggers are triggered.

So by no means I am stopped from renetering later....

[rk_a2003]

Yes you are right Amit. That is the greatest weakness of retail traders and greatest advantage of professionals means Institutes. Institutes and hedge funds normally trade with OPM (other people money) and their pockets are too deep in fact bottomless.

I will tell you an incident in history. In US long back a renowned group of economists published a paper after making a thorough research on the state of the economy and concluded that for the given economic fundamentals and scientific projections, present Index level is really overvalued. They also concluded that after 6 months the fair value should be 50% of the present value.

A group of traders studied this research paper and was completely convinced with the position of the research paper and shorted the Index. You know what happened …Index reached exactly 50 % after 6 months .Spot on.

But, The Irony was all our traders busted for the reason that before coming down to 50% index made a 50 % up side move and all our traders booked huge losses as they were not able to meet the mark to market losses. (Some time back I posted this story somewhere in the forum.)

I completely agree with your argument but at the same time recognizing our limitations is a must, however, how far we can stretch ourselves to practice such strategy is worth watching. The key point could be starting our action nearly at relative top/bottom. Still some kind of timing is a must though it gives us some flexibility by facilitating 3 entries. Money management is another crucial factor.

By the way, I am too fragile to bear the wait of ‘Sir’ .Call me RK.

[amitagg]

Thanks. Noted. Again 2 things even bulls give a reaction and sideways reaction fethces 200 points minimum....I sold just as per plan. Not like others at 5200-5300, not like few TAs at 5500-5550 , but at 5800 above......the test of market is how many days (TIME dimension) it can stay above 5850...so I sold u can see at TOP...so I give myself 2 stops..this is a usual trade I just spaced out..also LONGS only VERY VERY professionals would have achieved by "intention" not luck (gaps up openings)

I again feel..what should I say "feel" time is important give 2-4 weeks till mid Oct, we would know...

ideally..one should wait till then (need to see how the calender events fan out in Oct, sep we know)

I also again fee these can be "missed" opportunities for short sellers...I am actually playing accordingly to "rules" if u dvelve indeep and see...just that markets do what they want to do..but I am very very happy of the positioning I have...
Let's see...

Also three topping patterns at above 6000 cannot be taken out in one move from 5120 or 5320 whatewver you calculate...

[rk_a2003]

[amitagg]

For readers

I am bringing new dimension to trade forum:

After 9-12 months, we (not me alone) but we all shall see how different trade psyche"s can be and what brings trade sucess and what different trading styles can be:

Is it
- understanding of fundamentals, news etc
- technical analysis
- experience of being in market and day to day chart reading
- intuition (ie better intuition than others)
- resources at command
- trading style
- trading mindset / psyche

Which of above leads to trading success"..what combination...what priority ..what percentage...

[anilraj]

[rk_a2003]

Undoubtedly trading success demands a combination of all of them. However I believe there may not be a fixed ratio formula.

A fundamental understanding gives you the idea of big picture and keeps your feet firm on ground.

T.A gives you the advantage of timing your trades.

Chart reading experience and day to day contact with the market gives you the scope to grab most of the opportunities.

Intuition… it’s again a combination of all of the above which cannot be theorized or quantified.

Resources at command related to money management which is very important aspect for trading success.

Trading style related to your game plan which consists of your trading strategy/method. There is no best strategy (except my Fusion ).

Trading mind set/psyche is primary and most important factor which can potentially spoil the whole party. Even if you have the best of all the above factors… means sound fundamental and technical understandings, a continuous interaction with the market, unlimited resources at your disposal, time tested successful strategies /methods; Still you can be a great failure just because of poor mindset/psyche. After all, that too can be cultivated over a period of time and it’s a never ending process for traders …I believe.

[amitagg]

Well said.

Now this forum has starting helping me (let's see if I am able to apply in practice)

- your fusion
- swing traders high level proprietary tool (being developed)
- steves 3-15 EMA cross over
- mr pk kholla s great learnings from books
- vinays market understanding (this though is difficult to grasp as of now)
- still doubt a simple "wolve wave though ..because a beginner
- welgros option trades
- JDPTs charts

Manus / surender kalrasTA but they like me are "predicting" the markets (though better than me)

Thanks

[vinay28]

[pkholla]

[rk_a2003]

Amit,Have you revisited IT stocks.If not please do that.

[amitagg]

were not tradeable so didnt track...

WIPRO : sell only below 468....
HCL TECH : some fibo i calculated few weeks back gave 1080-1100 as target...NOT to sell above 1048...actual sell below 1015,

since there is institutional activity in these, they are neither giving down signals yet though divergence may be started appearing...but divergences can still result in sideways action for some time.

TCS appears weaker even today....INFY is random not tradeable for me.

i think we need to "wait".... before taking directional view since sideways action not ruled out for few more weeks....

so wait until results are given - no option but to wait....then we have to see.

[amitagg]

5-7 days of sideways to downaction shall be seen starting Monday opening [feel!]
.
also see below:

markets would turn to BULL only if following resistances broken [FEW points here and there...just based on approx.]

MOST stocks below these levels for time being.....and consistently so....

- ambuja below 188
- bhel below 148-152
- biocon not able to clear 347
- cairn below 328-333
- dlf below 163

[but - cipla [resistance cleared 430 and above it] so do ranbaxy and rcom most important reliance]

- Dr reddy below 2300-2350
- hind petro below 195
- indusind below 435-443
- lic housing below191
- tata global below 153-154 [touching it]
- tata steel 325 strong resistance
- titan 245
- uniphos 138-150
- zee below 235-238

so individual stocks still consolidating etc...not yet in uptrend [it above highgs / major resistances to see a BULL not yet

[amitagg]

new shorts should NOT enter above 5850 today [eg: at 5870 levels]... which shall act as first support and have bounces..[unless broken in vertical fall to 5800..] - intra day / short term TA