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READING THE LINE [DAY TRADERS MIND] - FUTURES ONLY |
amitagg
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Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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Post: #961  Posted: Fri Sep 12, 2014 12:53 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | Nifty novshort positions holding.....since expect sideways move from 8150-8350- back on monthly time frame with prices retesting 8050-8150 in next 2-3 months and may be move lower.
As per current price move , based on EW ( 5th wave pending from last 8-9 days moves) .... Gann target 8235-8350.... Plus monthly pivot target 8350..... Plus last bull run pattern post election last time....
Market can rise to 8250 then fall to 8150 then rise straight to 8350 then fall to 8150.... Then generate a little sideways move and then fall to 7850 and then " may be" likely 7500 and below.
This can take 3-5 months also..... So fresh shorts should be avoided at all cost.... It is possible that move down will start from a gap down as well and till that happens wait.
Also note that as per neo wave till the most recent upmove on minor charts are retrace in lesser time, which has not happened from February 14, markets to be considered up only
Some systems in buy mode only.... Fresh longs can be added strictly but emotionally be prepared for a day on uncertain severe fall..... |
a flash in a pan rise to 8234/8278/8314 NS pending....... |
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amitagg
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| Post: #962 Posted: Fri Sep 12, 2014 7:27 pm Post subject: |
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those interested in "long" crude can buy at safer level of 5624... stop 5607/ 5588............CMP 5647
may be A B C correction (up) (i.e. 4th wave) of downtrend from 6500 in progress since 5525.....target 5723/5745/5770
or buy above 5681 |
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amitagg
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Posts: 4559
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| Post: #963 Posted: Fri Sep 12, 2014 7:34 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | those interested in "long" crude can buy at safer level of 5624... stop 5607/ 5588............CMP 5647
may be A B C correction (up) (i.e. 4th wave) of downtrend from 6500 in progress since 5525.....target 5723/5745/5770
or buy above 5681 |
better to go with 5588 stop and buy closer to 5620-5627 rather than above 5680 |
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amitagg
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Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #964 Posted: Fri Sep 12, 2014 9:16 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | those interested in "long" crude can buy at safer level of 5624... stop 5607/ 5588............CMP 5647
may be A B C correction (up) (i.e. 4th wave) of downtrend from 6500 in progress since 5525.....target 5723/5745/5770
or buy above 5681 |
better to go with 5588 stop and buy closer to 5620-5627 rather than above 5680 |
I bought at 5651 above 4 swing 30 tf high and covered just now at 5684......
Have retained another buy order at 5624 which won't trigger today
After 20-30 point fall it can again target 5723 first.... Even after falling to 5620 it can target 5723 first then 5745 and 5775
Prognosis to change if below 5580 |
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amitagg
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Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #965 Posted: Mon Sep 15, 2014 10:28 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | those interested in "long" crude can buy at safer level of 5624... stop 5607/ 5588............CMP 5647
may be A B C correction (up) (i.e. 4th wave) of downtrend from 6500 in progress since 5525.....target 5723/5745/5770
or buy above 5681 |
better to go with 5588 stop and buy closer to 5620-5627 rather than above 5680 |
I bought at 5651 above 4 swing 30 tf high and covered just now at 5684......
Have retained another buy order at 5624 which won't trigger today
After 20-30 point fall it can again target 5723 first.... Even after falling to 5620 it can target 5723 first then 5745 and 5775
Prognosis to change if below 5580 |
timely booking yesterday......so market opened gap down below 5580...and once moved above respecting lows of 5550.....was up in 5 wave
down 3 wave....up 5 wave...............since it is "UP" ABC 4th wave i.e. 5-3-5 correction of fall from 6500.....market may test 5725-5750 region......
show "triple bottom" formation.....deceive longs and fall back below 5500.............if wave reading of 3rd wave ending at 5525 is correct......as mentioned few days before.........
so intra longs only......but positional longs for me still difficult.......
marker above Rohans indicator gave intra long profits today......
rise from bottom today exactly as per wave....with alteration of 2nd and 4rd at 61 and 38 percent and current 5 ongoing of minor wave of tday "C" as above.........CMP 5663 till 5680 "resistance / professional supply area intra day".
market may again rise 20-30 points to touch upper trendlines at 5703-5725 area......... [b]positional reversal below 5603 [/b]now...... till above 5700 is touched....though |
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amitagg
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Posts: 4559
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| Post: #966 Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2014 1:40 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | | personally expect market top out at 8030 (touched) - 8061-8089 (possible likely levels)........though even till 8170 is would remain in "range" mode for this month....... |
as written on 1-9-14 : high was 8180 - |
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amitagg
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Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #967 Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2014 1:44 pm Post subject: |
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this was posted 5-9-14- let see that since 7960 is broken, my prognosis of high alreadt made for months holds or not ...only time will tell.....7960 has to be broken on closing for 2 days.
| amitagg wrote: | this phase is make or break for markets with election, government, ECB, FED, etc. all over......and 8050 key level..if markets sustains below that for 2 weeks, red all over...........100-200 snap rallies can surely be seen .....if 8050 holds , suprise markets can touch 8350 also
i do not expect that IF 7960 is broken, markets would work back to above 8250......would expect sideways action / reasonably bearish action then, with top 8142 (current) respected within band of 100 points on monthly timeframe........for next 6-8 months.....
| amitagg wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | 8100 is 900+7200 [mentioned few days back by me]
8089/ 8100 is also monthly & weekly pivot resistance
8070 is also 6357-4530=1800*1.618+5116 = (mentioned as target by Rita few days back) [ 8030 was one EW pattern target ]
8125 - "first" mentioned by Icharts
8100 now mentioned by Turtle also |
since close to 8100....i have started shorting in small qtny
NF Sep 8103-8123-8143........also added Oct + Nov 8000 puts
[ i mentioned few posts back that despite marking touching 8171-8357 etc...typical high targets in THIS move].....i shall maintain my "reversal" or "bearish view" ....cannot time it....so taking distant positions.....] |
market makers know that tired shorters would exit tomorrow when market is at 8125-8150.......or today?......the exit is very important to trigger the slide....hoping against hope.....price action is "long" man!!!!....i have "time" at hand and with me. |
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
sold November futures @ 8225....(50%) ......(in lieu of Sep)
selling 25% at 8275 & 25% at 8325 [over the next 2-3 days till the trend is "likely" up only)
(8216 NS is 360 degree Gaan level and should seeing "price action" be tested after 8171)
- likely 40-50 points up move with one large bull candle pending [ basis price action, but playing for "bearish" longer term EW technical analysis till December 14]
target NF 7900 / 7800 / 7500.......stop NF 8525 [obviously small qtny traded] - all trades are risky [subject to SL being in place], all trades should have conviction
again Dollar index rising to 83, INR at supports, this cannot be the trend - longs to be sucked out of equities for some time !!!!!
trend can be followed ideally with previous days low at stop - that would have been great....but practically it is difficult to "get on " a trend which (supposedly is late).
waiting to add Nov put @ 8000 at 8170-8216 level
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> |
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amitagg
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Posts: 4559
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| Post: #968 Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2014 8:30 pm Post subject: |
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see the 4th wave working itself to trap the bulls.......
5745 hit ...max it can target 5789-5799 (20 point buffer to add) as per wave count...then fall below 5500.....is wave count reading is correct....
shorts can be taken at 5750-5765.... say 5766 .with stop 5820
| amitagg wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | those interested in "long" crude can buy at safer level of 5624... stop 5607/ 5588............CMP 5647
may be A B C correction (up) (i.e. 4th wave) of downtrend from 6500 in progress since 5525.....target 5723/5745/5770
or buy above 5681 |
better to go with 5588 stop and buy closer to 5620-5627 rather than above 5680 |
I bought at 5651 above 4 swing 30 tf high and covered just now at 5684......
Have retained another buy order at 5624 which won't trigger today
After 20-30 point fall it can again target 5723 first.... Even after falling to 5620 it can target 5723 first then 5745 and 5775
Prognosis to change if below 5580 |
timely booking yesterday......so market opened gap down below 5580...and once moved above respecting lows of 5550.....was up in 5 wave
down 3 wave....up 5 wave...............since it is "UP" ABC 4th wave i.e. 5-3-5 correction of fall from 6500.....market may test 5725-5750 region......
show "triple bottom" formation.....deceive longs and fall back below 5500.............if wave reading of 3rd wave ending at 5525 is correct......as mentioned few days before.........
so intra longs only......but positional longs for me still difficult.......
marker above Rohans indicator gave intra long profits today......
rise from bottom today exactly as per wave....with alteration of 2nd and 4rd at 61 and 38 percent and current 5 ongoing of minor wave of tday "C" as above.........CMP 5663 till 5680 "resistance / professional supply area intra day".
market may again rise 20-30 points to touch upper trendlines at 5703-5725 area......... [b]positional reversal below 5603 [/b]now...... till above 5700 is touched....though |
Last edited by amitagg on Tue Sep 16, 2014 8:51 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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PS Trader
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Joined: 22 Sep 2013
Posts: 101
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| Post: #969 Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2014 8:40 pm Post subject: |
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Amittagg , what impact you will expect on the crude based on the FED decision in couple of days  |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #970 Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2014 8:50 pm Post subject: |
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| PS Trader wrote: | | Amittagg , what impact you will expect on the crude based on the FED decision in couple of days |
Bearish (over medium and long term) because of :
The stronger the dollar gets, the more expensive dollar-denominated commodities get, and that will put down demand and push oil prices down.
Oil prices typically weaken when the U.S. currency strengthens as the dollar-priced commodity becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies
Also note that "shale gas" is causing turbulence in crude oil and giving bearish picture more than any FED decision.
Bullish (temporary only) : due to INR depreciation |
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amitagg
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Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #971 Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2014 9:14 pm Post subject: |
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5766 short triggerd.....this is not as per system remember (but by counting "one" possible wave target........)....20 points up by end of day possible till 5689.
| amitagg wrote: | see the 4th wave working itself to trap the bulls.......
5745 hit ...max it can target 5789-5799 (20 point buffer to add) as per wave count...then fall below 5500.....is wave count reading is correct....
shorts can be taken at 5750-5765.... say 5766 .with stop 5820
| amitagg wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | those interested in "long" crude can buy at safer level of 5624... stop 5607/ 5588............CMP 5647
may be A B C correction (up) (i.e. 4th wave) of downtrend from 6500 in progress since 5525.....target 5723/5745/5770
or buy above 5681 |
better to go with 5588 stop and buy closer to 5620-5627 rather than above 5680 |
I bought at 5651 above 4 swing 30 tf high and covered just now at 5684......
Have retained another buy order at 5624 which won't trigger today
After 20-30 point fall it can again target 5723 first.... Even after falling to 5620 it can target 5723 first then 5745 and 5775
Prognosis to change if below 5580 |
timely booking yesterday......so market opened gap down below 5580...and once moved above respecting lows of 5550.....was up in 5 wave
down 3 wave....up 5 wave...............since it is "UP" ABC 4th wave i.e. 5-3-5 correction of fall from 6500.....market may test 5725-5750 region......
show "triple bottom" formation.....deceive longs and fall back below 5500.............if wave reading of 3rd wave ending at 5525 is correct......as mentioned few days before.........
so intra longs only......but positional longs for me still difficult.......
marker above Rohans indicator gave intra long profits today......
rise from bottom today exactly as per wave....with alteration of 2nd and 4rd at 61 and 38 percent and current 5 ongoing of minor wave of tday "C" as above.........CMP 5663 till 5680 "resistance / professional supply area intra day".
market may again rise 20-30 points to touch upper trendlines at 5703-5725 area......... [b]positional reversal below 5603 [/b]now...... till above 5700 is touched....though |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #972 Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2014 9:15 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | 5766 short triggerd.....this is not as per system remember (but by counting "one" possible wave target........)....20 points up by end of day possible till 5789.
| amitagg wrote: | see the 4th wave working itself to trap the bulls.......
5745 hit ...max it can target 5789-5799 (20 point buffer to add) as per wave count...then fall below 5500.....is wave count reading is correct....
shorts can be taken at 5750-5765.... say 5766 .with stop 5820
| amitagg wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | those interested in "long" crude can buy at safer level of 5624... stop 5607/ 5588............CMP 5647
may be A B C correction (up) (i.e. 4th wave) of downtrend from 6500 in progress since 5525.....target 5723/5745/5770
or buy above 5681 |
better to go with 5588 stop and buy closer to 5620-5627 rather than above 5680 |
I bought at 5651 above 4 swing 30 tf high and covered just now at 5684......
Have retained another buy order at 5624 which won't trigger today
After 20-30 point fall it can again target 5723 first.... Even after falling to 5620 it can target 5723 first then 5745 and 5775
Prognosis to change if below 5580 |
timely booking yesterday......so market opened gap down below 5580...and once moved above respecting lows of 5550.....was up in 5 wave
down 3 wave....up 5 wave...............since it is "UP" ABC 4th wave i.e. 5-3-5 correction of fall from 6500.....market may test 5725-5750 region......
show "triple bottom" formation.....deceive longs and fall back below 5500.............if wave reading of 3rd wave ending at 5525 is correct......as mentioned few days before.........
so intra longs only......but positional longs for me still difficult.......
marker above Rohans indicator gave intra long profits today......
rise from bottom today exactly as per wave....with alteration of 2nd and 4rd at 61 and 38 percent and current 5 ongoing of minor wave of tday "C" as above.........CMP 5663 till 5680 "resistance / professional supply area intra day".
market may again rise 20-30 points to touch upper trendlines at 5703-5725 area......... [b]positional reversal below 5603 [/b]now...... till above 5700 is touched....though |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #973 Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2014 9:47 pm Post subject: |
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| exit near market close if above 5790...Sale price was 5766 |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #974 Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2014 11:38 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | | exit near market close if above 5790...Sale price was 5766 |
Stop was hit by close -5800 cmp |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #975 Posted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 12:10 pm Post subject: |
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| the real fall does not have to occur everyday.....let some shorts be cut if any and some longs enter above 8000.....for 2-3 days ...let us feel 7960 has held ............then after that .....the next leg of fall likely to happen....... |
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