iCharts Discussions

[voyager]

[vinay28]

rk, people all over the world have been complaining about algo but in vain and we are much more in danger because (a) FII activity (and hence volume) far exceeds the combined rest and (b) HFT is far faster than an average traders (and possibly even DIIs') connections.

Under such conditions, a fat finger trade (or a sudden very bad news) can create chaos as all SLs will be triggered in milliseconds counting from such an event. Also, there can never be as flash a rise as a fall.

Anyway, IMHO, such an event is due. ....... how about 22-23/01 or at least before 15/02?

I have no intention of spreading panic.

[pkholla]

Friends: If all of us (retail traders) complain loudly and frequently, AT LEAST we can stop placing of FII computers within NSE premises and HOT WIRING. There should be minimum, appearance of fairness!!!
Prakash Holla

[vinay28]

worth a read

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-strong-currency-problem-2014-02-04

[rk_a2003]

Good one Vinay.Thanks. Author is not able to assess the state control and its effects. China is not like USA. It's not a free market economy. It’s a well-controlled state capitalism. State will have an idea of where to tighten and where to be liberal.....(when Bitcoin is posing a threat to all international currencies it's chinese govt.which controlled it very well; where as even US could not do that)The western democracies don't have such a flexibility.... especially USA(In fact USA is also turning partially in to state capitalist mode of management by its active intervention in to the economy through its monetary easing policies). Let us see what happens.

[rk_a2003]

It's always important to keep in mind the context. The context is...... the record highs are still young , not yet aged. Choppiness will always be on cards, the SL's should be sufficiently far away if one want to cash on this bullishness. Same time brisk trades on short side is also the name of the game.

Le me share my recent experience. Couple of days back I took long entry in IGL futures around 260 with an intended SL at 254. After my entry it went below 254 too fast... even to 253 levels. Then I decided not to square off my position in loss and shifted my SL to next support i.e below 240, but then my target is also revised accordingly.

You know what happened later. Today I squared off my position around 281 + .A clean 20k+ profit in couple of days.

In an ordinary market revising stop loss to down side can be suicidal but all time highs and the bullish context allowed me to do so.

The specifics of time and space and context demands you to amend your established tactics to grab success.

[rk_a2003]

The exit polls were somewhat influenced by popular opinion. The popular opinion necessarily need not be the ground reality. In which way the exit polls were influenced; there could be multiple ways which is not our interest. But can certainly say from the past experiences that they were influenced by popular opinion in a significant way.

So, the exact result could be not a clear mandate but with some difficulty formation of a NDA government. So it may upset the market mood at least on temporary basis and may cause some correction .Is it the master plan of market makers?(To take up on exit polls... create an euphoria and shake out with correction after results) ...whatever.... I see a possibility of correction after results. It’s just an observation. Let's see.

[rk_a2003]

DISHTV is largest company in DTH/Cable sector. It can be termed as good quality company too on the basis of long-term financial performance. Quarterly financial trend too is positive with a Net Sales (HY) At Rs 3,249.92 cr with 118.49 %.growth .PAT (HY) At Rs 45.21 cr ( Grown at 242.13 %).Its Book value is 36.58.

With the entry of Reliance Jio in to DTH business the sentiment towards existing DTH players has turned bearish and Dish share price too came down from 100’s to 30’s in 2 years .With the confession of group chairman Mr.Subhash Chandra that promoters are in a financial mess two large institutes unloaded their holdings which might have further triggered pledged share sales (82% of shares are pledged) and dragged share price to 20 levels(That’s why a cardinal rule in investing is don’t invest in a company where share pledging is more than 50%).We don’t know whether the pledged share sale was over or not but the 25/01/2019 data shows delivery volumes at 40% for DishTv which is high for a F&O scrip.We may assume that pledged share sale is over or else it may continue for few more days.

So, this phenomenon has not much to do with fundamentals its rather technical but to regain the value it will take much longer time as the negative sentiments dominates for some time.

But this spiraling effect of downtrend will stop some where and at that point value buyers will emerge and start picking up the stock which takes it up and further triggers short covering and takes it further high. But no one can tell / know where this reversal process will start exactly that’s why we can put ourselves in a position to capitalize that inevitable upward bounce through pyramid accumulation at each fall.

DISH TV all time lows are at 11.90 we don’t know whether it visits/breaches that level and we aren’t bothered about that too. Which goes up shall come down and vice versa too as long as fundamentals are intact.

In a nutshell Essel infra is the problem. Mr. Subhash Chandra expansion in to Infra has bomb shelled .For expanding in to infra and to cover the losses promoters pledged 82 & 84 % of their shareholdings of DishTv & Zeel .

Group chairman also alleged that as he has almost finalized a deal with Sony group for strategic stake sale in Zee group, his rivals want to sabotage this deal and tried to plummet his group companies share price.The weakness of huge pledging of promoters stake made their task easy.

Now, with this technical spiraling down of price in Dishtv and ZEEL will their business be effected? definitely not both of them are profit making companies and as such their financials are sound.At most the worst possible thing that can happen is change of ownership as the promoters has become so weak ( even that may not happen too).Therefore the intrinsic value is really sound with the companies and it could be a rare opportunity to grab these company shares at each fall which must find higher value in future once the promoters financial issues are settled which has nothing to do with group companies financial health.

[rk_a2003]

We read news regarding promoters stake sale in RPOWER. Out of total 279 crores shares of Rpower promotors hold approximately 70% shares as per my reading... means 195 crores shares. The reports are that they are planning to sell 20 to 30% of their holdings to rise 2500 crores means Rs 43 to 64 rupees per share approximately. Who is going to buy a share at 43 to 64 rupees whose market price is around 10/-? It was reported that Qatar, Abudabhi Sovereign wealth funds and some other funds are interested to buy it.

Why are they buying directly from the promoter? because they cannot buy that huge quantity directly from the market even if they try to buy share price may rise to any level will not remain at 10.

Ok, understood, but why are they willing to pay 43 to 64 rupees? because they know that it’s a profit-making company with a book value of 80/- ....means they are purchasing a business at 20% to 50 % discount depending up on the price they pay.

Ok, so far so good is the market players are so dumb to do away with this fabulous opportunity? …No, they are not…. All the fund houses and market wizards know about it …even much more they might be knowing (some of them might be accumulating this scrip too) but market is at a serious distrust with Anil Ambani. He has announced 101 turn around and bail out plans till today for his flagship company RCOM and you know the outcome, every plan was an utter failure.

Well,when close quarters of Anil Ambani are not trusting his words then why should we? We are not trusting him are not keeping any faith in his abilities, we are simply looking at the inevitability, He was cornered and is being threatened with further pledge share sale. If it happens ADAG group shares may nose dive further 50 % from here and some one can easily take over his companies by acquiring shares from the market. Therefore there is no other go for him.

So Sovereign funds are getting the RPOWER shares at a huge discount for Rs43 to 64. When the deal materializes share price almost may reach near to the announced price. Now at what discount we are getting it?😀
All these are back of the envelope calculations …not perfect there is a chance of wild margin of errors. Even the error could be 50% still we are fine. 😀😀😀

Yesterday Imami share rose 17%. Do you know the reason? Promoters sold their 10% stake for Rs 1600 crores to cut their debt which was taken by pledging their shares.

[apka]

ADAGs profit making conpany RelCap also has taken a beating of 60-80% from highs made not too long ago.. Surprised to see it touched 116 and now trading around 140s.

Usually such beating downs happens when we see a scam emerge... Anil Ambani has this rare talent, he managed it for all his companies share price without any scam..

[rk_a2003]